Breaking Down the Dallas Cowboy Playoff Scenarios and Tiebreakers
Breaking Down the Cowboy Playoff Scenarios and Tiebreakers
Submitted by Jeff Thomas on
Tue, 2005-12-27 22:13.
Sitting at 9-6 thanks to an improbable road victory over Carolina, Dallas still has a shot to submit an entry for the NFL's annual post-season tourney...
Of course, as has been the Cowboy Way this year, the possibility of a post-season berth is going to come down to the wire...
Unfortunately, the 'Boys no longer control their own destiny. They need a victory over St. Louis on Sunday night. And they need some help.
Assuming they can overcome a Rams' team that has hit the skids, losing six of their last seven, what would secure a playoff spot for the 'Boys?
Well, it's not hard...but it's not easy, either...
Let's begin with easy...
Washington and Dallas both sit at 9-6, while Carolina sits at 10-5.
If either Washington or Carolina lose, and Dallas wins, the 'Boys are in.
A win by Washington means the best the Cowboys can do is tie them at 10-6. They would then resort to the division tiebreaker. The first tiebreaking criteria is head-to-head competition. The Cowboys lose this based on Washington's season sweep.
A win by Carolina means they would be 11-5, while the best the Cowboys could do would be 10-6. Carolina wins the playoff spot outright based on overall record.
So...the 'Boys need one of these two teams to lose.
If Washington loses, and Dallas beats St. Louis, Dallas gets the playoff spot based on better overall record. The Cowboys would be 10-6, while Washington would fall to 9-7.
If Carolina loses to Atlanta, and Dallas beats St. Louis, the Cowboys are in. While they'd end up with the same record, both 10-6, Dallas would edge them based on their victory over Carolina this past weekend.
So, the easy way to get in would be for Washington and/or Carolina to lose.
Carolina plays at Atlanta at noon on Sunday. Washington plays at Philly at 3:15 on Sunday.
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Are those the only scenarios in which Dallas can make the playoffs, you ask? No.
But the last one gets a bit more complicated.
Assuming both Carolina and Washington win, the Giants would have to lose to Oakland on Saturday night, Tampa would need to lose to New Orleans at home on Sunday, and the Cowboys would need to beat St. Louis Sunday night.
This would give Washington the NFC East division title based on tiebreakers (Washington and NY would both be 10-6, but they split the season series 1-1, and Washington would have a better division record). Carolina would be 11-5, and be in based on better overall record.
That would thrust the Cowboys, Giants, and Bucs, who would all be 10-6, and vying for the two Wild Card spots, into the "three clubs or more" tiebreaker scenario.
Since Dallas and New York are divisional opponents, the divisional tiebreaker formula would be applied first.
They split the season series 1-1, so they'd go to tiebreaker number two - divisional record. New York wins this one with a 4-2 divisional record versus the Cowboys 3-3 divisional record. New York gets wild card slot number one.
Dallas then goes back into the tiebreaker competition with Tampa. They would resort to the "two club wild card tiebreaker" criteria.
First is head-to-head. This isn't applicable because Tampa and Dallas didn't play each other.
The next two are best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Both clubs would be tied in this category, so the tiebreaker would revert to strength of victory.
This is basically the combined winning percentage of the teams that the Cowboys and Bucs each beat this season (not common opponents - just individual wins by each team).
Currently, the 'Boys hold the advantage at .467 - .453...
However, this percentage can and will change based on the outcomes of all the games involving teams that were beaten by the Cowboys and Bucs this year.
For example, if the Cowboys beat the Rams, as they need to do, their strength of victory would actually drop slightly, since the Rams would be 6-10.
The Cowboys need all of the teams they have beaten to win this weekend in this scenario.
Of course in that case, Carolina would win and Washington would lose. That would mean all of this silly math wouldn't even be necessary because a Washington loss and a Cowboy win would mean post-season, baby!
Go Falcons! And though it'll only last for 60 minutes, Fly Eagles Fly!
Let's hope Jimmy Buffet was right..."Come Monday, it'll be alright..."
Submitted by Jeff Thomas on
Tue, 2005-12-27 22:13.
Sitting at 9-6 thanks to an improbable road victory over Carolina, Dallas still has a shot to submit an entry for the NFL's annual post-season tourney...
Of course, as has been the Cowboy Way this year, the possibility of a post-season berth is going to come down to the wire...
Unfortunately, the 'Boys no longer control their own destiny. They need a victory over St. Louis on Sunday night. And they need some help.
Assuming they can overcome a Rams' team that has hit the skids, losing six of their last seven, what would secure a playoff spot for the 'Boys?
Well, it's not hard...but it's not easy, either...
Let's begin with easy...
Washington and Dallas both sit at 9-6, while Carolina sits at 10-5.
If either Washington or Carolina lose, and Dallas wins, the 'Boys are in.
A win by Washington means the best the Cowboys can do is tie them at 10-6. They would then resort to the division tiebreaker. The first tiebreaking criteria is head-to-head competition. The Cowboys lose this based on Washington's season sweep.
A win by Carolina means they would be 11-5, while the best the Cowboys could do would be 10-6. Carolina wins the playoff spot outright based on overall record.
So...the 'Boys need one of these two teams to lose.
If Washington loses, and Dallas beats St. Louis, Dallas gets the playoff spot based on better overall record. The Cowboys would be 10-6, while Washington would fall to 9-7.
If Carolina loses to Atlanta, and Dallas beats St. Louis, the Cowboys are in. While they'd end up with the same record, both 10-6, Dallas would edge them based on their victory over Carolina this past weekend.
So, the easy way to get in would be for Washington and/or Carolina to lose.
Carolina plays at Atlanta at noon on Sunday. Washington plays at Philly at 3:15 on Sunday.
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Are those the only scenarios in which Dallas can make the playoffs, you ask? No.
But the last one gets a bit more complicated.
Assuming both Carolina and Washington win, the Giants would have to lose to Oakland on Saturday night, Tampa would need to lose to New Orleans at home on Sunday, and the Cowboys would need to beat St. Louis Sunday night.
This would give Washington the NFC East division title based on tiebreakers (Washington and NY would both be 10-6, but they split the season series 1-1, and Washington would have a better division record). Carolina would be 11-5, and be in based on better overall record.
That would thrust the Cowboys, Giants, and Bucs, who would all be 10-6, and vying for the two Wild Card spots, into the "three clubs or more" tiebreaker scenario.
Since Dallas and New York are divisional opponents, the divisional tiebreaker formula would be applied first.
They split the season series 1-1, so they'd go to tiebreaker number two - divisional record. New York wins this one with a 4-2 divisional record versus the Cowboys 3-3 divisional record. New York gets wild card slot number one.
Dallas then goes back into the tiebreaker competition with Tampa. They would resort to the "two club wild card tiebreaker" criteria.
First is head-to-head. This isn't applicable because Tampa and Dallas didn't play each other.
The next two are best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Both clubs would be tied in this category, so the tiebreaker would revert to strength of victory.
This is basically the combined winning percentage of the teams that the Cowboys and Bucs each beat this season (not common opponents - just individual wins by each team).
Currently, the 'Boys hold the advantage at .467 - .453...
However, this percentage can and will change based on the outcomes of all the games involving teams that were beaten by the Cowboys and Bucs this year.
For example, if the Cowboys beat the Rams, as they need to do, their strength of victory would actually drop slightly, since the Rams would be 6-10.
The Cowboys need all of the teams they have beaten to win this weekend in this scenario.
Of course in that case, Carolina would win and Washington would lose. That would mean all of this silly math wouldn't even be necessary because a Washington loss and a Cowboy win would mean post-season, baby!
Go Falcons! And though it'll only last for 60 minutes, Fly Eagles Fly!
Let's hope Jimmy Buffet was right..."Come Monday, it'll be alright..."
posted by The Gryphon at 2:03 PM
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