Thursday, June 15, 2006

Al Johnson in the Top Ten

From ESPN Insider
Locklear enjoying success

By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive

The most significant addition to Scientific Football 2006 (now available for pre-order at www.TheFootballScientist.com) is the introduction of run-blocking metrics. I frequently receive the following two questions regarding run blocking metrics:

1. Can you explain your tracking system for run blocking?
2. Which linemen grade out the best in your system?

When I created the tracking system, I decided to base it around a yards-per-attempt metric. Yards per attempt is the central metric I use to track every other player on the field, so it only makes sense to track offensive linemen in a similar fashion.


Point Of Attack (POA) Blocks
There are two types of blocks I use to determine the number of run attempts and yards for a lineman. The first are blocks at the point of attack. Let me give you an example to help illustrate what I mean by a point of attack blocker.

One of the most basic running plays is the stretch play commonly used by the Indianapolis Colts. All of the Colts' linemen block in the same direction and attempt to move the defensive front seven to that side of the field. The Colts' running back flows with the offensive line and waits for a cutback lane to develop. Once the lane develops, the back makes his cut and gets upfield.

To identify the point of attack blocker on this type of play, I look to see which offensive lineman (or linemen) the back makes his cut behind. For example, if the play is being run to the right side of the field, the Colts' linemen will be blocking to their right, and the back most likely will make his cut behind either the left guard or left tackle. I then note which linemen made the block(s) and how many yards were gained on the run.


Key Blocks
In addition to tracking POA blockers, I also track what I call key blocks. A key block is a block that isn't made at the point of attack (i.e. where the runner made his cut), but is essential to the success of the play.
In the example listed above, the defensive right end is responsible for backside pursuit. The primary responsibility of the end is to make sure the play isn't a bootleg or reverse. Once he realizes the play is a stretch run, he is supposed to crash down from the backside to close off the cutback lane.

This defensive end is usually a couple of yards away from the point of attack due to his backside responsibilities, so he can't be considered a point of attack defender. He still has to be blocked in order for the play to be successful, however, so I track a block against him as a key block.

The thing to remember about run blocking metrics is the result of the play is the primary consideration in determining the point of attack and/or key blocks. Let's say a team is running a sweep and the cornerback beats the block from the wide receiver and stops the play for a loss. Even if both pulling guards made good point of attack blocks on the run, the key block on the play was the block of the wide receiver on the cornerback. As such, I would track that block as the only POA/key block on the play.


Blocking Success Percentage
In addition to tracking yards per attempt for each linemen, I also track their blocking success percentage. I have a number of sub-metrics I use to track the success/failure of a block. I will review these in greater detail in Scientific Football 2006 and future ESPN.com articles, but for the sake of this discussion, let me discuss what I mean by a successful block.
I have seen a number of tracking systems that grade a block by its technical accuracy. A lineman is credited for having his hands in the correct position and his feet properly aligned. He is also downgraded for having inaccurate positions and alignments.

While those systems might tell me which linemen are listening to their coaches, it doesn't necessarily say anything about the lineman's blocking prowess. A slow left tackle can put his hands and feet in the perfect position, but still allow Dwight Freeney to blow past him.

I use one very simple equation in grading a block: Was it successful? If the offensive lineman was able to give the ballcarrier a running lane, I grade the block as a success; otherwise it grades out as a failure. I figure if the lineman isn't using the proper technique, this should show up in his blocking success rate.


2005 Offensive Linemen Rankings
Here are the top 10 linemen from the 2005 season in terms of yards per attempt (minimum 40 POA/key blocks to qualify):

Yards Per Attempt
Rank Player Number Position Team Ttl Y/A
1 S.Locklear 75 OT Seattle 7.8
T2 Z. Wiegert 72 OT Houston 6.2
T2 M. Lehr 61 OG Atlanta 6.2
T2 A. Hicks 77 OG Philadelphia 6.2
T2 L. Petitgout 77 OT NY Giants 6.2
T2 R. Garza 63 OG Chicago 6.2
7 K. Barry 71 OT Green Bay 5.9
T8 J. Tait 76 OT Chicago 5.8
T8 S. McKinney 68 C Miami 5.8
T8 B. Waters 54 OG Kansas City 5.8


Here are the top 10 linemen in terms of blocking success percentage:

Blocking Percentage
Rank Player Number Position Team Scs %
1 C. Samuels 60 OT Washington 94.8
2 S. Locklear 75 OT Seattle 94.4
3 K. Barry 71 OT Green Bay 94.2
4 C. Villarrial 58 OG Buffalo 91.8
5 B. Hamilton 50 OG Denver 91.6
6 D. Dockery 66 OG Washington 91.1
7 J. Peters 71 OT Buffalo 90.9
8 R. Brown 74 OG Chicago 90.8
9 V. Riley 68 OT Houston 90.5
10 B. Olson 75 OG Tennessee 90.2


The third ranking I use for grading run blocking is a combination of these two charts. I multiply a lineman's yards per attempt by his success percentage in order to factor both rankings. Here is the top 10 list in this category:

Combined Rankings
Rank Player Number Position Team Scs x y/a
1 S. Locklear 75 OT Seattle 7.3
2 K. Barry 71 OT Green Bay 5.6
3 Z. Wiegert 72 OT Houston 5.4
4 L. Petitgout 77 OT NY Giants 5.3
5 M. Lehr 61 OG Atlanta 5.2
T6 R. Garza 63 OG Chicago 5.1
T6 A. Johnson 52 C Dallas 5.1
T6 W. Gandy 72 OT N. Orleans 5.1
T6 R. Brown 74 OG Chicago 5.1
T6 J. Hartings 64 C Pittsburgh 5.1

It should come as no surprise that the 2005 run blocking rankings would have a Seattle player at the top. The surprise is that it isn't Walter Jones or Steve Hutchinson, but rather Sean Locklear. The Seahawks' opponents last year kept saying Seattle would run just as often to their right side as they would their left, and this chart shows why. Locklear is not considered the best run blocker in the NFL, but the metrics from last season show that no lineman had a more productive year.