Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Don’t be surprised if Gibbs, Parcells take a hike

Coaching close-up

Don’t be surprised if Gibbs, Parcells take a hike By Hub Arkush (hub@pfwmedia.com)
Nov. 13, 2006

As we give you your first in-depth look at the 2007 free-agent crop in this issue of Pro Football Weekly, I offer another question for you to kick around for a while: Which NFL head coaches will be moving on in ’07, and who might be stepping up to fill their shoes?

A question I’ve heard asked a lot over the past few months is: Who do you think will hang ’em up first, the Redskins’ Joe Gibbs or Dallas’ Bill Parcells? Keeping in mind it was strongly rumored that both of their returns were motivated as much by finances as their desire to coach again, my best guess is neither will be back in ’07.

Gibbs is already in the Hall of Fame. While I’m sure anybody would love to have another Super Bowl ring, there is absolutely nothing left for Gibbs to prove on the field. His club, which many thought would be a legitimate contender this year, is barely mediocre and heading in the wrong direction. The defense that triggered its run to the playoffs last year was ranked 30th in total defense, 15th vs. the run, 30th vs. the pass and 23rd in points allowed the first half of the season. It’s also one of the older groups in the league.

On offense, Clinton Portis appears to have lost a lot of tread on his tires, Santana Moss is the only weapon that scares you when he’s healthy, and who knows how much longer Mark Brunell can play at a high level? No one has a clue what they have in QB-of-the-future Jason Campbell.

What we all know is that the Redskins are one of the best-run franchises in the league off the field, at least in terms of generating profits, but one of the most poorly run football operations. The amount of money wasted on Andre Carter, Adam Archuleta and Antwaan Randle El this past offseason was ludicrous. And by all accounts, the Redskins will find themselves in a terrible salary-cap situation in just the second season of the new CBA, not a very enviable position for a club that is old and short on talent. Whether it’s owner Daniel Snyder meddling in the football side of things, or V.P. of football operations Vinny Cerrato being a lousy judge of talent, with three ex-NFL head coaches and at least three more wannabes as assistants, why should Gibbs come back for another year to coach a team that probably can’t win? It says here he won’t.

As for Parcells, is there anybody who has watched him this year who believes he’s enjoying himself at all? Does anybody honestly believe that he wouldn’t trade Terrell Owens and the $25 million Dallas owner Jerry Jones pissed away on T.O. in a heartbeat for Keyshawn Johnson and a couple of quality offensive linemen? Is there a soul in the universe who doesn’t believe the Parcells-T.O. marriage will end badly?

Within a few minutes of his retirement, Parcells will be guaranteed an annual seven-figure contract to talk about the game on some TV network, and within a year or two at the outside after that, he will join Gibbs in the Hall of Fame. Why stay in Dallas, where you never know what the egomaniac owner or petulant superstar is going to do next? It says here Parcells is done for good in January.

I’ve heard a number of folks speculate that Tennessee’s Jeff Fisher will take Parcells’ job. I have little doubt that Fisher is done in Tennessee after this season, but I’d like to believe he’s smart enough not to jump into a job where even eventual Hall of Famer Parcells couldn’t win.

Fisher will leave Tennessee because his plan to rebuild the Titans into a contender with Matt Leinart at quarterback was trashed by owner Bud Adams and GM Floyd Reese, when they insisted on selecting Vince Young instead. While Young may turn out OK, my gut tells me Leinart will be quite a bit better. In any event, Fisher was entitled to better from Adams, and it’s time to move on. The rumors connecting him to the Cowboys spring from the fact a lot of folks agree with me about Parcells, and that Fisher and Jones have worked together on the NFL competition committee.

Dennis Green has to be done in Arizona, doesn’t he? He certainly should be, and the fun question worth keeping an eye on is what Pete Carroll would say if he’s offered complete control of the Cardinals franchise. Reggie Bush may be the greatest kid in the world, but the bottom line is that his folks broke all kinds of NCAA rules for compensation while he was at USC, and the other shoe has to drop eventually. Whether or not Carroll is guilty or completely innocent, it seems logical he would accept a windfall to get out of L.A. in front of the posse.

Mike Nolan could feel some pressure in San Francisco, as could Brian Billick in Baltimore and Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego if their clubs don’t go deep into the playoffs. But I suspect all three will be back. Art Shell will avoid a “one-and-done” in Oakland because Al Davis felt he messed up the first time he fired Shell.

And finally what about iron-jawed Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh? Is it time for him to take a breather and avoid the burnout that could be right around the corner? I doubt it, but Cowher bears close observation