NFC Paydirt: Decisions in Dallas
By Josh Hansen
Mon, Nov 20, 2006
So where do the Dallas Cowboys go from here?
If you asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have predicted that by this time Bill Parcells would be losing more than his hair, Terrell Owens would be suspended for clubbing Drew Bledsoe on the sidelines, and Mike Vanderjagt would be on his last leg.
Well two out of three isn’t bad I guess.
Right now, the Cowboys are doing everything right. They’ve survived T.O. (so far) even after switching to Tony Romo. Confidence is at an all-time high in Dallas and Bill Parcells looks even smarter, if that’s at all possible. Defensively, the Cowboys look better every game. They brought Peyton Manning back down to earth and sent the Colts back to Indy, tails between their legs.
Yes, these ‘Boys are all right.
But are they Super Bowl material?
Like a lot of people out there, sportsbooks seem to think so. They have Dallas at +900 to win it all in February and that number should dip even lower after the injury-plagued New York Giants lost to Jacksonville Monday night. But as of Tuesday, only the Chicago Bears (+300), Indianapolis Colts (+325) and San Diego Chargers (+400) are bigger favorites to leave Miami with the Lombardi Trophy.
How does that happen?
Those teams are a combined 26-3. Dallas is 6-4.
Three teams, New England (+1200), Baltimore (+1400), and Denver (+2500) have better records than the Cowboys, yet they are all getting longer odds to win the Super Bowl race.
Five other teams have an identical record to Dallas, but none are considered Super Bowl contenders.
First of all, in my opinion, futures are purely for entertainment and bragging rights. Three months from now you can show everyone the printout with Seattle +2500 on it and pin it up in your cubicle. I don’t care. You can make more money right now betting on the Cowboys this Sunday.
Secondly, like their regular odds, Cowboys futures odds are so inflated they make absolutely no sense. Because the Cowboys are the biggest hype machine in football, they are totally overvalued. People pile on this bandwagon like celebrities to Scientology ands sportsbooks know it. They inflate their prices to a number Joe Public can’t resist.
Me, I’m not getting sucked into that trap.
While Dallas is quite capable of making the playoffs, I don’t think the Cowboys have what it takes to make it past Chicago or Seattle. I do think they can drift past the Giants in the NFC East. With Donovan McNabb done in Philadelphia, that division becomes a two-horse race. The winner will settle for a Wild Card spot.
And right now, Dallas is in a better position than the Giants, ironically the only team in the division not to change quarterbacks this season.
But don`t tell Parcells that.
He put the season into the hands of an unproven quarterback when he started Romo five weeks ago. I remember an interview in which a displeased Jerry Jones all but said he didn’t agree with the move. But what could Jones say? He pushed Owens into Parcells’ locker room. It was time the Big Tuna returned the favor.
It was exactly the kind of move Parcells needed to save his team’s season and it’s paying off – three wins in four games straight up and against the spread.
But how much value remains with the Cowboys now that they`re "back"? We’ll find out after Thursday’s game against Tampa Bay with Dallas laying 11 points at home. Now I know Parcells wouldn’t let it happen, but there’s still the chance Dallas is due for a big letdown. However, that isn`t the reason I`m hesitant to bet the Cowboys from here on in.
Like I mentioned earlier, Cowboy lines are inflated because they’re a public team. But when a team is in the public eye even more than usual, like after beating the last undefeated team in the NFL, everyone jumps on the train and oddsmakers adjust by inflating the odds or jacking the juice.
We’re already seeing it for the Buccaneers game, although I think the Cowboys should pound the Bucs. What worries me is if they do, Cowboys prices will soar heading into the final leg of the season.
Dallas plays three of its remaining five games at home, meaning the Cowboys will give a field goal for being the home team, on top of their usual inflation. Couple that with their recent success, the Super Bowl talk, and their huge following – and I think Dallas backers could be in for a rude awakening in the next few weeks.
Mon, Nov 20, 2006
So where do the Dallas Cowboys go from here?
If you asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have predicted that by this time Bill Parcells would be losing more than his hair, Terrell Owens would be suspended for clubbing Drew Bledsoe on the sidelines, and Mike Vanderjagt would be on his last leg.
Well two out of three isn’t bad I guess.
Right now, the Cowboys are doing everything right. They’ve survived T.O. (so far) even after switching to Tony Romo. Confidence is at an all-time high in Dallas and Bill Parcells looks even smarter, if that’s at all possible. Defensively, the Cowboys look better every game. They brought Peyton Manning back down to earth and sent the Colts back to Indy, tails between their legs.
Yes, these ‘Boys are all right.
But are they Super Bowl material?
Like a lot of people out there, sportsbooks seem to think so. They have Dallas at +900 to win it all in February and that number should dip even lower after the injury-plagued New York Giants lost to Jacksonville Monday night. But as of Tuesday, only the Chicago Bears (+300), Indianapolis Colts (+325) and San Diego Chargers (+400) are bigger favorites to leave Miami with the Lombardi Trophy.
How does that happen?
Those teams are a combined 26-3. Dallas is 6-4.
Three teams, New England (+1200), Baltimore (+1400), and Denver (+2500) have better records than the Cowboys, yet they are all getting longer odds to win the Super Bowl race.
Five other teams have an identical record to Dallas, but none are considered Super Bowl contenders.
First of all, in my opinion, futures are purely for entertainment and bragging rights. Three months from now you can show everyone the printout with Seattle +2500 on it and pin it up in your cubicle. I don’t care. You can make more money right now betting on the Cowboys this Sunday.
Secondly, like their regular odds, Cowboys futures odds are so inflated they make absolutely no sense. Because the Cowboys are the biggest hype machine in football, they are totally overvalued. People pile on this bandwagon like celebrities to Scientology ands sportsbooks know it. They inflate their prices to a number Joe Public can’t resist.
Me, I’m not getting sucked into that trap.
While Dallas is quite capable of making the playoffs, I don’t think the Cowboys have what it takes to make it past Chicago or Seattle. I do think they can drift past the Giants in the NFC East. With Donovan McNabb done in Philadelphia, that division becomes a two-horse race. The winner will settle for a Wild Card spot.
And right now, Dallas is in a better position than the Giants, ironically the only team in the division not to change quarterbacks this season.
But don`t tell Parcells that.
He put the season into the hands of an unproven quarterback when he started Romo five weeks ago. I remember an interview in which a displeased Jerry Jones all but said he didn’t agree with the move. But what could Jones say? He pushed Owens into Parcells’ locker room. It was time the Big Tuna returned the favor.
It was exactly the kind of move Parcells needed to save his team’s season and it’s paying off – three wins in four games straight up and against the spread.
But how much value remains with the Cowboys now that they`re "back"? We’ll find out after Thursday’s game against Tampa Bay with Dallas laying 11 points at home. Now I know Parcells wouldn’t let it happen, but there’s still the chance Dallas is due for a big letdown. However, that isn`t the reason I`m hesitant to bet the Cowboys from here on in.
Like I mentioned earlier, Cowboy lines are inflated because they’re a public team. But when a team is in the public eye even more than usual, like after beating the last undefeated team in the NFL, everyone jumps on the train and oddsmakers adjust by inflating the odds or jacking the juice.
We’re already seeing it for the Buccaneers game, although I think the Cowboys should pound the Bucs. What worries me is if they do, Cowboys prices will soar heading into the final leg of the season.
Dallas plays three of its remaining five games at home, meaning the Cowboys will give a field goal for being the home team, on top of their usual inflation. Couple that with their recent success, the Super Bowl talk, and their huge following – and I think Dallas backers could be in for a rude awakening in the next few weeks.
posted by The Gryphon at 10:17 PM
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