Dividing the workload: Some numbers to digest
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Dec. 21, 2006) -- Opening up the NFL stats and deciding which running back on each roster is the best might not be enough information to make the right decision. Who is the right guy for now -- the future -- and should there be a shift from one back to another?
NFL coaches and executives have to go deeper than rushing yardage. There are at least 13 teams that have to look at many other issues to go forward in regards to their running backs.
Is the best running back not getting enough opportunities? Should the leading ball carrier get less work? Is it time to give the leading ball carrier more work?
Well, here are a few places decision makers will go to answer the questions they have about their running backs. Obviously, when you have a back like LaDainian Tomlinson or Larry Johnson, you don't really have to go through this process, but at least half the league does.
How many carries did the ball carrier have for 4 yards or more?
How many times did he bust loose for 10 yards or more? How does he do after contact?
How often does he move the chains for a first down or score a touchdown?
On third or fourth down, how often does he get a first down?
Is he a good receiver and catch touchdown passes?
Scheme, salary and age are other factors that might get figured in.
Here's a look at six clubs' information after 14 games:
Team Name Att. Big Efforts Pct. +10-yard runs YAC Rec/TD
DAL Jones 234 106 45.3 24 2.00 8/0
DAL Barber 111 69 62.2 18 2.38 14/2
DEN T. Bell 191 87 45.5 24 1.82 19/0
DEN M. Bell 114 59 51.8 9 1.97 16/0
JAX Taylor 222 105 47.3 32 2.50 22/0
JAX Jones-Drew 110 60 54.5 21 3.24 33/2
IND Addai 182 116 63.7 18 1.98 31/1
IND Rhodes 157 79 50.3 9 1.58 31/0
WAS Portis 127 56 44.1 16 2.12 17/0
WAS Betts 174 89 51.1 25 2.51 42/0
ATL Dunn 240 107 44.6 16 2.11 16/0
ATL Norwood 84 43 51.2 18 2.35 9/0
KEY: Att = carries; Big Efforts = The number of runs that went for at least 4 yards or resulted in a first down or touchdown; Pct = Big Efforts divided by carries; YAC = Yards After Contact.
The Cowboys know Marion Barber has done more with the football with fewer opportunities. Although they need both young backs, it would appear Barber might start to get more touches as his team heads into the playoffs. In the past three weeks, Barber has 29 touches and Julius Jones 36. There could be a slight shift in Barber's favor when you consider he's better after contact, and has a better percentage of big plays working for him.
Denver has the two Bells working. Tatum Bell has those double-digit gains in his favor, but Mike Bell has a better percentage of big efforts and is slightly better after contact. Coach Shanahan might as well just keep rolling with these two guys at this point.
Marion Barber's versatility and production might earn him more touches than Julius Jones.
Jacksonville has to be happy with both running backs, but when you look at Maurice Jones-Drew after contact, his runs over 10 yards, his percentage of big efforts, it sure would be tempting to give him 5-10 more touches per game.
The Colts made the shift to Joseph Addai a few weeks ago. When you consider his big-effort potential is at 63.7 percent, even though Dominic Rhodes is excellent at 50.3 percent, the shift was predictable. Peyton Manning's ability to check into the run when the situation is optimal is clear when you tally up both backs and see that a combined 57.5 percent of their carries were big efforts.
The Redskins have an interesting situation going on now that Ladell Betts is filling in for Clinton Portis. Ladell is running behind the same line and has an inexperienced quarterback in front of him, yet his percentage of big efforts is better, his yards after contact and ability to generate 10-yard runs is better. He recently signed a five year extension!
When you look at Atlanta's situation, what jumps out right away is the difference in 10-yard carries for Jerious Norwood. He has two more than Warrick Dunn in 156 fewer carries. There's obviously room for both backs, but as time goes on, Norwood needs more touches.
Finally, there are other teams -- like the Raiders with Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan, the Bears with Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones, and even the Patriots with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney -- that will be taking a long, hard look at their backfield production to determine play distribution, opportunity and situational play.
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Dec. 21, 2006) -- Opening up the NFL stats and deciding which running back on each roster is the best might not be enough information to make the right decision. Who is the right guy for now -- the future -- and should there be a shift from one back to another?
NFL coaches and executives have to go deeper than rushing yardage. There are at least 13 teams that have to look at many other issues to go forward in regards to their running backs.
Is the best running back not getting enough opportunities? Should the leading ball carrier get less work? Is it time to give the leading ball carrier more work?
Well, here are a few places decision makers will go to answer the questions they have about their running backs. Obviously, when you have a back like LaDainian Tomlinson or Larry Johnson, you don't really have to go through this process, but at least half the league does.
How many carries did the ball carrier have for 4 yards or more?
How many times did he bust loose for 10 yards or more? How does he do after contact?
How often does he move the chains for a first down or score a touchdown?
On third or fourth down, how often does he get a first down?
Is he a good receiver and catch touchdown passes?
Scheme, salary and age are other factors that might get figured in.
Here's a look at six clubs' information after 14 games:
Team Name Att. Big Efforts Pct. +10-yard runs YAC Rec/TD
DAL Jones 234 106 45.3 24 2.00 8/0
DAL Barber 111 69 62.2 18 2.38 14/2
DEN T. Bell 191 87 45.5 24 1.82 19/0
DEN M. Bell 114 59 51.8 9 1.97 16/0
JAX Taylor 222 105 47.3 32 2.50 22/0
JAX Jones-Drew 110 60 54.5 21 3.24 33/2
IND Addai 182 116 63.7 18 1.98 31/1
IND Rhodes 157 79 50.3 9 1.58 31/0
WAS Portis 127 56 44.1 16 2.12 17/0
WAS Betts 174 89 51.1 25 2.51 42/0
ATL Dunn 240 107 44.6 16 2.11 16/0
ATL Norwood 84 43 51.2 18 2.35 9/0
KEY: Att = carries; Big Efforts = The number of runs that went for at least 4 yards or resulted in a first down or touchdown; Pct = Big Efforts divided by carries; YAC = Yards After Contact.
The Cowboys know Marion Barber has done more with the football with fewer opportunities. Although they need both young backs, it would appear Barber might start to get more touches as his team heads into the playoffs. In the past three weeks, Barber has 29 touches and Julius Jones 36. There could be a slight shift in Barber's favor when you consider he's better after contact, and has a better percentage of big plays working for him.
Denver has the two Bells working. Tatum Bell has those double-digit gains in his favor, but Mike Bell has a better percentage of big efforts and is slightly better after contact. Coach Shanahan might as well just keep rolling with these two guys at this point.
Marion Barber's versatility and production might earn him more touches than Julius Jones.
Jacksonville has to be happy with both running backs, but when you look at Maurice Jones-Drew after contact, his runs over 10 yards, his percentage of big efforts, it sure would be tempting to give him 5-10 more touches per game.
The Colts made the shift to Joseph Addai a few weeks ago. When you consider his big-effort potential is at 63.7 percent, even though Dominic Rhodes is excellent at 50.3 percent, the shift was predictable. Peyton Manning's ability to check into the run when the situation is optimal is clear when you tally up both backs and see that a combined 57.5 percent of their carries were big efforts.
The Redskins have an interesting situation going on now that Ladell Betts is filling in for Clinton Portis. Ladell is running behind the same line and has an inexperienced quarterback in front of him, yet his percentage of big efforts is better, his yards after contact and ability to generate 10-yard runs is better. He recently signed a five year extension!
When you look at Atlanta's situation, what jumps out right away is the difference in 10-yard carries for Jerious Norwood. He has two more than Warrick Dunn in 156 fewer carries. There's obviously room for both backs, but as time goes on, Norwood needs more touches.
Finally, there are other teams -- like the Raiders with Justin Fargas and LaMont Jordan, the Bears with Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones, and even the Patriots with Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney -- that will be taking a long, hard look at their backfield production to determine play distribution, opportunity and situational play.
posted by The Gryphon at 5:50 PM
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