Friday, February 02, 2007

IN-DEPTH SPECIAL 2007 NFC EAST FREE AGENCY PREVIEW

Feb 01, 2007 05:32 PM
By Joshua M. Boraz

This is a special column dedicated to the NFC East and the upcoming 2007 NFL free agency class.

Teams are organized by cap room prior to signing players:

ERFA stands for Exclusive Rights Free Agent (meaning only his current team can sign him), RFA stands for Restricted Free Agent (meaning that his current team can match any offer made to him, and he has to stay), and UFA obviously is Unrestricted Free Agent.

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Dallas Cowboys
Expected Cap Room- 21.4 Million
Total # of Free Agents - 17 (5 ERFA & 8 RFA)

Top 5 COWBOYS Free Agents:

#1- RT Marc Colombo (UFA)
#2- OLB Al Singleton (UFA)
#3- C Andre Gurode (UFA)
#4- WR Patrick Crayton (RFA)
#5- C Al Johnson (RFA)

Analysis of this group:

RT Marc Colombo is a nice piece of a line that improved over the course of the season, the team will try to resign him. Al Singleton is a great outside linebacker who will find a home somewhere else with the emergence of OLB Bobby Carpenter. The team will make a choice between Andre Gurode or Al Johnson, Gurode got a cleat to the eye by Albert Haynesworth last year but Johnson has had more of an injury history. The other will walk. WR Patrick Crayton may get a sniff here and there, but will probably not go anywhere. FS Marcus Coleman was a disappointing signing and the team cut him last month, they'll search for a replacement.

Improvements could be made:

On offense, the team would like to add a big FB who could open up holes in the running game. A second tight end besides Jason Witten would also be acceptable. On the line, OG Kyle Kosier is good, but the team might be able to upgrade. The team would obviously like an all-pro Center but won't spend big money on it.

On defense, the team needs another inside linebacker to replace Akin Ayodle who is too often the target of plays up the middle. A defensive end would be nice, but not one who would alienate Greg Ellis, who made the Dallas Defense great when he was healthy and when he was injured was the key reason for their slip. Finally, a free safety would be the team's biggest need and will likely be its draft target.

Finally, and perhaps obviously, the team would love to add a big time consistent kicker.

What will probably happen:

To all my Ravens fans, who were great with tehir response yesterday and who think Stover is going nowhere next year. This is your competition. Jerry Jones has been dissappointed in the kicking game the last few years with the signing of Vanderjadgt and Gramattica, and might seek refuge in K Matt Stover. If Stover remains unsigned after March 1st, expect the Cowboys to come a calling. And don't say it won't happen, because remember Adam Vinitari and Mike Vandergadt.

On defense, The Cowboys will let Al Singleton go and replace him with Bobby Carpenter, drafting some later rounds guy. They'll probably ignore the need for a Defensive End, preferring to let Greg Ellis try to regain his touch. At free safety, expect the team to go after one of the big names, Michael Lewis would be an ideal fit. They'll draft a inside linebacker in the later rounds to fill the depth gap at linebacker when Singleton leaves.

On offense, the team will pick between Al Johnson and Andre Gurode at center. If they're not sold on either, the team might make a move to look at Hank Fraley or Rich Braham and see if they might be interested in becoming a Cowboy. The team will evaluate whether they like the job Colombo did last year or not, if they didn't, expect them to go hard after RT Jeremy Bridges . Depending on who's available in the later stages of free agency, don't be shocked if the Cowboys make a play for Kris Dielman or Vince Manuwai at LG to replace Kosier. They'll ignore the need for a fullback (as all teams do) and probably be set with Anthony Fasano as the second tight end.

One player I would sign if I were the Dallas Cowboys GM:
K Matt Stover of the Baltimore Ravens

Final Thought:

The Cowboys know that they need a kicker. Losing Bill Parcells and replacing him with Norv Turner will hurt the franchise in the short term, which is what Dallas fans should be concerned about.
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NY Giants
Expected Cap Room- 15.7 Million
Total # of free agents- 18 (3 ERFA & 3 RFA)

Top 5 Giants Free Agents:
#1- OLB Brandon Short (UFA)
#2- LG David Diehl (UFA)
#3- P Jeff Feagles (UFA)
#4- SS Gibril Wilson (RFA)
#5- FB Jim Finn (UFA)

Notable Starter Free Agents: PK Jay Feeley (UFA)
Other Notable Free Agents: LS Ryan Kuehl (UFA), LB Chris Claiborne (UFA), C Shaun O'Hara (UFA)

Analysis:

Brandon Short is one of the better tier 2 linebackers in free agency and someone will snap him up. LG David Diehl is not a great player, but is good enough to provide depth at both guard spots, someone will also sign him. Someone who needs a punter will probably sign Jeff Feagles. The team can't afford to lose him. The team would like to lose Gibril Wilson but no one is going to take him off their hands. The team would also like to upgrade from Jim Finn, but no one is out there, on the other hand, the team could just as easily sign another stud TE and lose the FB entirely, giving Manning another target. The other guys are all depth, O'Hara will be signed by someone who needs a center, but the Giants don't need him because Seubert played great after being reinserted as the Giants starter. (Manning didn't, but Seubert did).

Improvements must be made at:

On offense, the team needs a stud Fullback who can push the pile or a second TE that would reallyl spread offenses out. But most important is a starting left guard whether David Diehl goes or not, they need someone who can keep the up the middle pressure off of Eli Manning and give him time to throw. The team needs depth at guard, center, running back, quarterback, since it has very little.

On defense, a defensive end to backup Strahan and Umeniyora so that they can move Kiwanuka back to defensive tackle where he gets a great amount of pressur eon the Quarterback. If Short leaves, they'll need another outside linebacker. Another top flight cornerback would be nice to push everyone down (a bonafide #1). A SS to replace Gibril Wilson whether or not he goes.

On special teams, the team ought to resign Jeff Feagles and Jay Feeley, but if it doesn't, they'll be in the market for UFA's at all positions. The team should also resign Ryan Kuehl (one of the best long snappers in the league)

What will probably happen:

The team will prioritize it's special teams resigning Feagles, Feely, and Kuehl in the first few days after the Super Bowl, making sure that it's special teams is situated. Then it will turn it's attention to the offense which sputtered late last year.

They will be players in the Kris Dielman sweepstakes and even if they don't sign him, they will try to land one of the big guards in free agency (Vince Manuwai, Toniu Fontoi, Jermane Mayberry, Eric Steinbach, Jason Whittle) in order to keep Eli Manning upright and to replace Diehl (who they will only sign if he comes back at a reduced price to play backup guard). Rick DeMulling is also a possibility. Look for the team to make a play on TE Reggie Kelly if he's not too expensive, to provide that extra protection for Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning.

On defense, the team will monitor the DE situation closely and try to move Kiwanuka to defensive tackle if things go swimmingly. If not, expect the team to make a play for DT Hollis Thomas or DT Vonnie Holliday if the space is there. The team will try to resign Brandon Short if the price is right, but if it's not, they'll draft a linebacker with their pick and expect him to play right away. The team will not upgrade at safety, preferring Gibril Wilson who started last year, but I feel didn't make a lot of plays.

Finally, the team will look at the cornerbacks in free agency but come away with no one because the best will be too expensive.

One Player I would try to sign if I were the Giants GM:
LG Kris Dielman of the San Diego Chargers

Final Thought on the Giants:

The Giants are on the decline, they can make some stop gap moves, but the team drastically needs to upgrade its depth to maintain any run of excellence. However, if they admit that they're on the decline and spend a year in mediocrity, they might be able to come back like gang busters in a year.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Expected Cap Room- 12.4 Million
Total # of Free Agents- 13 (1 ERFA & 1 RFA)

Top 5 EAGLES Free Agents:
#1- WR Donte Stallworth (UFA)
#2- FS Michael Lewis (UFA)
#3- QB Jeff Garcia (UFA)
#4- OLB Shawn Barber (UFA)
#5- LT William Thomas (UFA)

Other Notbale Starter Free Agents: RB Cornell Buckhalter

Analysis:

Donte Stallworth is the best WR on the market. No one else even approaches his ability. If he walks, he'll get a big payday from one of the teams in the WR hunt. FS Michael Lewis is the best FS on the market. QB Jeff Garcia is the best QB on the market. OLB Shawn Barber is a tier 2 linebacker who teams will shy away from. LT William Thomas is probably one of the top or 3 LT's on the market and will get a payday from someone. RB Cornell Buckhalter's performance in the playoffs and injury history will probably mean he's history for the Eagles.

Improvements could be made:

On defense, both OLB spots will need shots in the arm, particularly if Shawn Barber doesn't come back. The nteam will also need to draft some depth at safety no matter what happens.

On offense, the team could improve at LG but won't go out of its way to do so. It will need a bonafide #1 if Stallworth leaves. It will also need another backup at RB and LT (if Thomas leaves, which he will).

What will probably happen:

On offense, the team might make a genuine effort to resign Donte' Stallworth and if it's within their cap constraints, they will do so, but they won't break the bank for him. As a result, since Stallworth will be the best receiver on the market, expect him to bounce. LT William Thomas will find himself a home with some team that needs a LT and is willing to pay him more than he's actually worth, which will be fine for the Eagles who will get younger with Winston Justice at that spot. Unless Buckhalter is willing to sign for the minimum, the team will let him walk. Jeff Garcia will need to take a cap friendly deal to resign with the Eagles, he's not going to. So he's gone too, that'll be fine because the Eagles have A.J. Feeley to backup McNabb.

On defense: The Eagles should not let FS Michael Lewis go, but may have no choice since Sean Considine played himself into a starting spot and Lewis should command decent money unless teams are scared off by his injury history. Shawn Barber will probably be back since he finished the season injured and won't have a lot of suitors offering more than the Eagles are offering. Of course, the Eagles might only take him back for the minimum.

The Eagles will spend their draft though drafting for depth and will not sign anyone to a mega contract that will hurt their depth, they may pull a New England Patriots and wait for next year on all free agent signings so that they'll have more room when the cap jumps again.

If the Eagles go after anyone, it will probably be LB Adalius Thomas who could rotate as a linebacker and as a defensive end when needed. But that's highly unlikely.

One Player I would sign if I were the Philadelphia Eagles GM:
WR Donte Stallworth of the Philadelphia Eagles


Final Thought on the Eagles
The Eagles are a team that's on the cusp of being a Super Bowl contender. As long as they continue to ignore their linebacking situation, they won't be able to beat the real Super Bowl contenders like the Saints and Bears. But as long as they continue operating as they have the last few years (and stay healthy), none of these teams in the NFC East are better.

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Washington Redskins
Expected Cap Room- 2.388 MILLION OVER THE CAP
Total # of free agents- 16 (5 ERFA)

Top 5 REDSKINS Free Agents:

#1- OLB Warrick Holdman (UFA)
#2- OLB Jeff Posey (UFA)
#3- LG Derrick Dockery (UFA)
#4- RB Ladell Betts (UFA)
#5- P Derrick Frost (ERFA)

Analysis:

Holdman and Posey are two of the most underrated linebackers in the game. At one time Posey was overrated but now that time has passed. Betts played himself right out of a contract last year, expect a team like the Oakland Raiders to give him a shot. Dockery is one of the tier 2 LG's in the league and will find a home with another team. It is a good thing that Frost is an ERFA because the Redskins would lose him in a red hot minute.

Improvements could be made at:

On offense, a bona fide #1 WR like Donte Stallworth would be nice because it would push everyone back into their proper spots (Moss would be #2, Lloyd would be #3, Randle El would be #4, Thrash would not have signed his contract extention and would be off the team), TE opposite Chris Cooley would be nice instead of Sellers at FB.

On defense, the team could use a stud defensive tackle opposite Cornelius Griffin and a stud defensive end opposite Andre Carter (who I'm willing to give another chance to eventhough he didn't play well last year, but I'm not willing to give a chance to Phillip Daniels cause he's too old). A big time Middle Linebacker would be a god send, someone who could fill both the need for a defensive end and linebacker would be nice, there is such a player out there, but the Redskins won't be able to go after him.

What will probably happen:

This is the year that the Redskins will stop spending ridiculous money on free agents.

The team is going to lose its depth which will lead to another 6-10, 5-11, 4-12 season and another high pick in the draft. The team will use the draft to plug its holes (particularly at linebacker where both Posey and Holdman are going).

Dockery will be missed as will Betts but the Redskins will compensate. The bigger problem will be getting depth, which will ultimately lead to their downfall. The team will rely on its coaching to get the most out of players while it digs itself out of cap issues.

Of course if the Redskins could manage, they would love to sign Adalius Thomas of the Ravens, but with their cap situation, there's just no way that's going to happen.

One player I would try to sign if I were the Redskins GM:
Adalius Thomas of the Baltimore Ravens

Final Thought on the Redskins:

It's hard to like the Redskins if you're not a diehard fan of them. They've made a series of really bad signings over the last few years and now they're going to be paying for it for the next few years, even as the cap increases year by year. Jason Campbell is a bright spot, but with the lack of depth, the Redskins will be in trouble.

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FINAL THOUGHT ON THE NFC EAST

The Cowboys look like they're sitting pretty, and you would think that with the 20 million under the cap and Tony Romo situation, they would be the team to beat next year. But the bottom line is that the Eagles have been planning far in advance, even if they don't sign Donte Stallworth, the team will still be loaded next year with talent at every position and the draft will only add to that depth.

The Giants and the Redskins look like they're on the way down, it's sad for the Giants because their window closed before they thought it would, but it's sadder for the Redskins and all the effort that Dan Snyder put into building that team.


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