Sunday, March 25, 2007

Who Rises and Falls on Defense?

By Rafael Vela

We turn to the defense, to learn which positions are upgraded on draft day and which are overlooked, at least in the first round: (for chart see: http://theboysblog.com/)

Conclusions:

1. There are only three marquee positions on defense — cornerbacks, pass rushers and monster defensive tackles who can stuff the run and rush inside.

2. It stands to reason that if wide receiver is the top offensive position by number, then finding guys who can stop receivers is equally valued. In this day of increasing spread offenses at the pro level, you need three good corners at minimum to stack up.

From the Cowboys’ perspective, corner looks like a real option in the 22nd spot. Anthony Henry is 30 and will turn 31 during the season. Terence Newman is 28 and will turn 29 in September (he was a 25 year old rookie) and Aaron Glenn will be 35 on opening day.

Age is as much a concern here as it is at wide receiver. Keep Darrelle Revis and Aaron Ross at the top of your 1st round options charts.

3. Pass rushers are an even bigger priority for teams, even though the position falls second here. There are six 3-4 outside linebackers — Greg Ellis, Julian Peterson, Demarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Kamerion Wimbley and Manny Lawson — whose top job is rushing. You could add them to the defensive end category.

4. Free safeties fall. Only four have been drafted in the first round and only Sean Taylor has cracked the top ten the past decade. Laron Landry will likely be the second. This probably explains Reggie Nelson’s sudden fade. Unless you’re seen as something special, as Landry clearly is, teams grade you and draft you in the second round.

5. Nose tackles also get no love. Only four first rounders drafted in the past decade. There’s no Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork in this year’s draft. Don’t look for nose tackle help this high.

6. Inside linebacker? Not gonna happen. Only TWO 3-4 inside backers have been taken in the first round. James Farrior is one and Bobby Carpenter is rated as the other.

The Cowboys follow these defensive templates to the letter. The team has drafted defense with every first rounder since ‘98. Look at this breakdown:

DE/OLB — Greg Ellis, Ebenezer Ekuban, Demarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Bobby Carpenter (he also plays outside).
CB — Terence Newman,
SS — Roy Williams

Guys who can rush., a guy who can cover and a safety they felt was exceptional at his position.

What does this tell me? That if Dallas looks for defensive help, we should expect the best cover man or the best pass rusher available to be selected.