Metrics say TO not best receiver on the 'Boys
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
I recently completed an analysis of my major 2006 metrics for inclusion in ESPN's 2007 Fantasy Football Magazine and I thought I might share some of the most interesting metric highs and lows.
Tom Brady led all quarterbacks in bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses.
Rex Grossman was roundly criticized last season for forcing passes into coverage. Grossman did lead the league in near interception percentage (7.3), but Brett Favre actually topped Grossman for the highest total of near interceptions (Favre 44, Grossman 37).
Terrell Owens may tout himself as one of the best receivers in the NFL, but the metrics say he might not even be the best receiver on his team. Terry Glenn's 10.3 total yards per attempt was more than 2 yards higher than Owens' figure (8.0). In fact, Glenn's YPA was higher at every depth level, including short passes, which is said to be Owens' specialty because of his ability to gain yards after the catch.
If Bruce Arians, Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator, wants to use the short passing game more often, he has the ideal receiver in Santonio Holmes. Holmes was simply phenomenal on short passes last year, averaging 10.5 YPA on these routes. Holmes had four short passes go for 30-plus yards, so Arians will look to take advantage of his qualities in 2007
There were two surprises in the highest and lowest success percentages for wide receivers. The lowest success percentage belonged to Chris Chambers (44.8). His 16 drops certainly didn't help, so Chambers is capable of bouncing back.
The highest success percentage belonged to Eric Moulds (79.7). While his 7.8 YPA was not all that great, any wide receiver still able to post a success percentage that high deserves a roster spot somewhere in this league.
I'm usually a big supporter of any personnel move the Patriots make, but I don't understand the recent signing of Tory James. James does intercept plenty of passes, but he ranked 93rd in total YPA last year, giving up a whopping 11.0 yards on every pass thrown his way. James will need to show at least a 3-yard improvement in this category for his acquisition to be considered a good move.
There was a lot of grumbling among Green Bay fans when Charles Woodson and Al Harris were both snubbed for the Pro Bowl. The metrics indicate they certainly had a legitimate beef, especially in Woodson's case. Woodson ranked sixth in the league with a 5.3 YPA, and Harris ranked 18th with a 6.3 YPA. Consider that Ronde Barber and DeAngelo Hall, the two starting NFC cornerbacks, had YPAs of 7.9 (Barber) and 9.2 (Hall).
Finally, if you want to know why Damon Huard has seemingly beaten out Trent Green for the starting quarterback gig in Kansas City, look no further than their bad decision percentages from last year. Huard's rate (1.2) was the third-best in the league, while Green's (3.9) was the seventh-worst. Green is finding out the hard way that when you force passes into coverage at three times the rate of your competitor, it can cost you the job.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.
ESPN Insider
Archive
I recently completed an analysis of my major 2006 metrics for inclusion in ESPN's 2007 Fantasy Football Magazine and I thought I might share some of the most interesting metric highs and lows.
Tom Brady led all quarterbacks in bad decision percentage for the second year in a row. Brady had a mere five bad decisions in 533 dropbacks, which translates into a meager 0.9 bad decision percentage. If this metric is any indication, no quarterback is better at reading defenses.
Rex Grossman was roundly criticized last season for forcing passes into coverage. Grossman did lead the league in near interception percentage (7.3), but Brett Favre actually topped Grossman for the highest total of near interceptions (Favre 44, Grossman 37).
Terrell Owens may tout himself as one of the best receivers in the NFL, but the metrics say he might not even be the best receiver on his team. Terry Glenn's 10.3 total yards per attempt was more than 2 yards higher than Owens' figure (8.0). In fact, Glenn's YPA was higher at every depth level, including short passes, which is said to be Owens' specialty because of his ability to gain yards after the catch.
If Bruce Arians, Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator, wants to use the short passing game more often, he has the ideal receiver in Santonio Holmes. Holmes was simply phenomenal on short passes last year, averaging 10.5 YPA on these routes. Holmes had four short passes go for 30-plus yards, so Arians will look to take advantage of his qualities in 2007
There were two surprises in the highest and lowest success percentages for wide receivers. The lowest success percentage belonged to Chris Chambers (44.8). His 16 drops certainly didn't help, so Chambers is capable of bouncing back.
The highest success percentage belonged to Eric Moulds (79.7). While his 7.8 YPA was not all that great, any wide receiver still able to post a success percentage that high deserves a roster spot somewhere in this league.
I'm usually a big supporter of any personnel move the Patriots make, but I don't understand the recent signing of Tory James. James does intercept plenty of passes, but he ranked 93rd in total YPA last year, giving up a whopping 11.0 yards on every pass thrown his way. James will need to show at least a 3-yard improvement in this category for his acquisition to be considered a good move.
There was a lot of grumbling among Green Bay fans when Charles Woodson and Al Harris were both snubbed for the Pro Bowl. The metrics indicate they certainly had a legitimate beef, especially in Woodson's case. Woodson ranked sixth in the league with a 5.3 YPA, and Harris ranked 18th with a 6.3 YPA. Consider that Ronde Barber and DeAngelo Hall, the two starting NFC cornerbacks, had YPAs of 7.9 (Barber) and 9.2 (Hall).
Finally, if you want to know why Damon Huard has seemingly beaten out Trent Green for the starting quarterback gig in Kansas City, look no further than their bad decision percentages from last year. Huard's rate (1.2) was the third-best in the league, while Green's (3.9) was the seventh-worst. Green is finding out the hard way that when you force passes into coverage at three times the rate of your competitor, it can cost you the job.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest release ("Scientific Football 2007") is available for a special preorder price at his Web site.
posted by The Gryphon at 9:39 PM
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