DMN Blog: Going deep with Archer's Witten prediction

The great Todd Archer figured that after watching five minicamp practices, he was ready to fire off some bold predictions for next season.

Let's focus on Todd's first prediction: Jason Witten will average close to 14 yards per catch this season.

That might not sound like a big deal to you Billy Joe DuPree fans, but the tight end's role in NFL offenses has changed a lot in the last 20 years. The good TEs become their quarterbacks' security blankets, meaning a lot of dump-offs and routes designed simply to move the chains on third-and-8.

I looked up the career stats of the guys I consider elite, active, pass-catching TEs: Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, Alge Crumpler, Todd Heap, Randy McMichael and Witten. None of those guys have averaged 14 yards per catch in a season in which they had at least 50 receptions. Crumpler came closest, averaging 16.1 yards on his 48 catches in 2004 and 13.9 yards on 56 catches last season.

Witten's career-best, as noted by Todd: 11.8 yards last season. Jay Novacek never averaged more than 11.4 yards per catch as a Cowboy.

Posted by Tim MacMahon at 10:39 AM