Jeff Haney tells why pro sports handicappers think differently from fans and pundits who don't gamble
by Jeff Haney
lasvegassun.com
Professional sports handicappers don't deal in absolutes.
They don't have the luxury.
If an NFL team is favored by a touchdown in a particular game, for example, fans and non-gambling pundits tend to chalk it up as a victory for the favorite even before the game is played. It's the "they're gonna kill 'em" syndrome.
Handicappers realize the underdog can expect to win outright about one in four times, however, and proceed accordingly.
It was all the more surprising, then, how vehement and nearly unanimous a panel of handicappers was in aiming vitriol at the New York Giants and their prospects this NFL season at a betting symposium last week at Red Rock Resort.
The opening Las Vegas odds on the top three contenders in the NFC East to win the division looked pretty typical: the Dallas Cowboys a moderate favorite at 9-5, the Philadelphia Eagles at 2-1 and the Giants at 5 -2. Since then, Dallas and Philadelphia have remained virtual co-favorites while the odds on the Giants have drifted above 3-1.
Listening to the handicappers at the seminar sponsored by Vegas Insider, you'd think the odds were closer to 300-1. No one on the panel could find any reason to recommend playing the Giants in any futures betting, season-win over/under wagering or in individual games against the point spread.
"I don't like this team," handicapper Alf Musketa said. "Too much whining all the time. They're under the microscope in New York (and) constantly squabbling."
Besides the intangible issues regarding the team's makeup, Musketa was concerned about injuries bothering wide receiver Plaxico Burress and tight end Jeremy Shockey, and about the loss of running back Tiki Barber, who retired to enter broadcasting.
Handicapper Mark Franco pointed out bettors have been playing the Giants' season-win total under eight at most Las Vegas books, including those at seminar host Station Casinos, indicating a bearish outlook.
"Tom Coughlin is a coach who's just not liked by his players," Franco said, predicting this will be Coughlin's final year with New York. Franco named the Giants as the team he considers most overrated vis-a-vis the betting line, meaning he doesn't expect them to cover the point spread much whether they're a favorite or an underdog.
Handicapper Andy Iskoe also sees the Giants heading for a fall, projecting them to finish at the bottom of the NFC East standings, even below the Washington Redskins (6-1 to win the division), who Iskoe believes will be much improved.
"Keep in mind that last year the Giants made the playoffs, (and) everyone remembers that, but they did so with an 8-8 record," Iskoe said.
Handicapper Stephen Nover, who is bullish on the Cowboys and new head coach Wade Phillips, compared Coughlin to Captain William Bligh and his team to a "Mutiny on the Bounty" waiting to happen.
"The Giants are about to blow up," Nover said. "There's some very serious chemistry issues there."
Speaking of chemistry, I'm surprised handicapper Jim Kruger, who typically seasons his analysis with offbeat anecdotes, didn't mention a prank played on Shockey during Giants training camp.
The unknown jokester doctored Shockey's glove with a dye that banks use to mark bills, leaving Shockey with a deep purple stain on his left hand. It wasn't a harmless morale-building sort of prank, according to the New York Post, which reported Shockey was furious and called the perpetrator a "dead man walking."
Kruger criticized the Giants for essentially standing pat after last season.
"To throw another shovel of dirt on the Giants, they gave (Coughlin) a token extension (and) they did nothing for the team in the offseason," Kruger said. "Their big free agent signing was (journeyman running back) Reuben Droughns. Woohoo! Reuben Droughns. That's gonna make a big difference."
The panel was split on many of its other NFL projections, most notably in a discussion of the NFC South and the outlook for the New Orleans Saints, favored to win the division.
Musketa predicted the Saints would advance to the Super Bowl before losing to the New England Patriots. Handicapper Chip Chirimbes has the Saints winning the Super Bowl, most likely against the Pats.
Iskoe, who considers the Carolina Panthers the team to beat in the division, made a compelling case against New Orleans, which bounced back from a 3-13 record the previous year to advance to the NFC championship game.
Iskoe figures the opposition will have a better grasp on the game plan of head coach Sean Payton and running back Reggie Bush, now both in their second year with the Saints.
"Unlike in the regular season (when) you have only one week to pick apart the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing team, you have six months in the offseason to do that," Iskoe (online at thelogicalapproach.com) said.
"You can be sure a lot of teams picked apart why New Orleans was so successful last year. I'm sure a lot of defensive coordinators, especially the other three in the NFC South, will ... look at film and break it down and find out where the vulnerabilities are.
"They won't be catching teams by surprise this year."
lasvegassun.com
Professional sports handicappers don't deal in absolutes.
They don't have the luxury.
If an NFL team is favored by a touchdown in a particular game, for example, fans and non-gambling pundits tend to chalk it up as a victory for the favorite even before the game is played. It's the "they're gonna kill 'em" syndrome.
Handicappers realize the underdog can expect to win outright about one in four times, however, and proceed accordingly.
It was all the more surprising, then, how vehement and nearly unanimous a panel of handicappers was in aiming vitriol at the New York Giants and their prospects this NFL season at a betting symposium last week at Red Rock Resort.
The opening Las Vegas odds on the top three contenders in the NFC East to win the division looked pretty typical: the Dallas Cowboys a moderate favorite at 9-5, the Philadelphia Eagles at 2-1 and the Giants at 5 -2. Since then, Dallas and Philadelphia have remained virtual co-favorites while the odds on the Giants have drifted above 3-1.
Listening to the handicappers at the seminar sponsored by Vegas Insider, you'd think the odds were closer to 300-1. No one on the panel could find any reason to recommend playing the Giants in any futures betting, season-win over/under wagering or in individual games against the point spread.
"I don't like this team," handicapper Alf Musketa said. "Too much whining all the time. They're under the microscope in New York (and) constantly squabbling."
Besides the intangible issues regarding the team's makeup, Musketa was concerned about injuries bothering wide receiver Plaxico Burress and tight end Jeremy Shockey, and about the loss of running back Tiki Barber, who retired to enter broadcasting.
Handicapper Mark Franco pointed out bettors have been playing the Giants' season-win total under eight at most Las Vegas books, including those at seminar host Station Casinos, indicating a bearish outlook.
"Tom Coughlin is a coach who's just not liked by his players," Franco said, predicting this will be Coughlin's final year with New York. Franco named the Giants as the team he considers most overrated vis-a-vis the betting line, meaning he doesn't expect them to cover the point spread much whether they're a favorite or an underdog.
Handicapper Andy Iskoe also sees the Giants heading for a fall, projecting them to finish at the bottom of the NFC East standings, even below the Washington Redskins (6-1 to win the division), who Iskoe believes will be much improved.
"Keep in mind that last year the Giants made the playoffs, (and) everyone remembers that, but they did so with an 8-8 record," Iskoe said.
Handicapper Stephen Nover, who is bullish on the Cowboys and new head coach Wade Phillips, compared Coughlin to Captain William Bligh and his team to a "Mutiny on the Bounty" waiting to happen.
"The Giants are about to blow up," Nover said. "There's some very serious chemistry issues there."
Speaking of chemistry, I'm surprised handicapper Jim Kruger, who typically seasons his analysis with offbeat anecdotes, didn't mention a prank played on Shockey during Giants training camp.
The unknown jokester doctored Shockey's glove with a dye that banks use to mark bills, leaving Shockey with a deep purple stain on his left hand. It wasn't a harmless morale-building sort of prank, according to the New York Post, which reported Shockey was furious and called the perpetrator a "dead man walking."
Kruger criticized the Giants for essentially standing pat after last season.
"To throw another shovel of dirt on the Giants, they gave (Coughlin) a token extension (and) they did nothing for the team in the offseason," Kruger said. "Their big free agent signing was (journeyman running back) Reuben Droughns. Woohoo! Reuben Droughns. That's gonna make a big difference."
The panel was split on many of its other NFL projections, most notably in a discussion of the NFC South and the outlook for the New Orleans Saints, favored to win the division.
Musketa predicted the Saints would advance to the Super Bowl before losing to the New England Patriots. Handicapper Chip Chirimbes has the Saints winning the Super Bowl, most likely against the Pats.
Iskoe, who considers the Carolina Panthers the team to beat in the division, made a compelling case against New Orleans, which bounced back from a 3-13 record the previous year to advance to the NFC championship game.
Iskoe figures the opposition will have a better grasp on the game plan of head coach Sean Payton and running back Reggie Bush, now both in their second year with the Saints.
"Unlike in the regular season (when) you have only one week to pick apart the strengths and weaknesses of the opposing team, you have six months in the offseason to do that," Iskoe (online at thelogicalapproach.com) said.
"You can be sure a lot of teams picked apart why New Orleans was so successful last year. I'm sure a lot of defensive coordinators, especially the other three in the NFC South, will ... look at film and break it down and find out where the vulnerabilities are.
"They won't be catching teams by surprise this year."
posted by The Gryphon at 8:40 AM
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