NFC team reports: Playoff outlooks
Posted: December 31, 2007
SN correspondents
http://www.sportingnews.com
Each week, Sporting News correspondents provide insight and analysis on every NFL team. Here are the playoff outlooks for the six teams in the NFC postseason field.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have to get their offense fixed in the two weeks before their first playoff game. For the second time in three games, Dallas failed to score a touchdown. Part of the problem has been injuries to WR Terrell Owens and C Andre Gurode, both of whom should be back for the playoffs. Another part of the problem, though, has been the team's inability to consistently run the ball. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett doesn't seem to have much confidence in the ground game, having called fewer than 17 running plays in three of the Cowboys' past four games. Dallas ran the ball 16 times for one yard in Sunday's loss to the Redskins, something that should be considered unacceptable for a team that had two Pro Bowl offensive linemen (LT Flozell Adams and RG Leonard Davis) and a Pro Bowl running back (Marion Barber) in the game. The Cowboys ran the ball on consecutive plays just twice against Washington. Garrett has shown a tendency recently to give up on the run early in games. That's something he probably needs to change as the Cowboys enter the postseason. ...
OLB DeMarcus Ware finished the season with 14 sacks and will be in the final conversation for defensive player of the year. Ware, who is also strong against the run, had a sack and two forced fumbles against Washington. Although he plays on the weak side most of the time, he has the speed to track plays down from the backside as well as play strong at the point of attack. Dallas needs him to be a difference-maker in the playoffs if it's going to get to the Super Bowl, because without a pass rush opponents attack the Cowboys' secondary.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are an anomaly in Green Bay: They are better-suited to playing indoors where they can take advantage of their speed and five-receiver sets. They don't want to play on a sloppy track or in a windstorm.
Of late, they're running the ball better with RB Ryan Grant, a downhill runner with deceptive speed and the ability to break away from the final line of defense. Grant's long runs, however, mask some of the consistency problems the team has on the ground. This offense clearly sets up the run with the pass and when it has to line up and grind out yardage it really can't. When the passing game is going, however, it's hard to stop. Few teams can put enough quality cornerbacks on the field to match the team's receivers.
QB Brett Favre runs the show. His ability to anticipate blitzes and read coverages is invaluable. If teams pressure him, however, they have a chance. The interior of the offensive line is vulnerable, especially if RG Jason Spitz (thigh) and backup LG Junius Coston (calf) can't play next week. Rookie Allen Barbre is next in line.
The defense is much better suited for winning slugfests. When NT Ryan Pickett is healthy the run defense is solid. The cornerback tandem of Al Harris and Charles Woodson is one of the best in the league, but the safeties are liabilities in coverage, especially against tight ends. If the club meets the Cowboys again, it's going to have to consider dividing coverage of WR Terrell Owens between Harris and Woodson. Harris gets too worked up and loses his concentration.
As a whole, this team is equipped to get to the championship game because it has a quarterback with Super Bowl experience, a fine defense and good kick returners. Getting past the Cowboys will be a challenge, though.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks enter the playoffs having won six of their final eight games and are relatively healthy. Perhaps most important, they play their opening-round game at home. But Seattle still isn't running the ball with enough consistency to be considered a legitimate contender to make its second Super Bowl run in the past three years. In particular, the team is struggling on the ground in short-yardage situations.
That's why the importance of coach Mike Holmgren's decision to return to his pass-first roots when the team was 4-4 cannot be overemphasized. Holmgren put the ball -- and the fate of the offense -- into the hands of QB Matt Hasselbeck, who responded with a career season despite rarely having starting WRs Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett on the field together. Hasselbeck did more than just make do with what he had. For evidence, look no further than WR Bobby Engram, who set a franchise record with 94 receptions for the first 1,000-yard receiving season of his 12-year career.
RB Shaun Alexander, the league MVP in '05, has shown signs of regaining at least a portion of his past productivity in the past two games. Anything he supplies in the playoffs will be a bonus for an offense that learned to play without him while he was sidelined for three games with a sprained knee.
The defense, meanwhile, has been playing at a playoff level for most of the season -- aside from the meltdown against the Falcons in the regular-season finale, that is. The unit is still undersized, something that has been a problem when Seattle faces power backs who run behind large offensive lines. But the Seahawks' defenders compensate by playing fast and aggressively. With DE Patrick Kerney leading the way, the Seahawks have produced 45 sacks and 34 turnovers -- a big reason why they were able to hold opponents to 18.2 points per game.
The Seahawks have shown they can beat just about any opponent -- and any style of play -- at Qwest Field. If they get past the Redskins on Saturday, the big question will be: Can they win a playoff game on the road for the first time since the 1983 season?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs enter the playoffs well-rested but without a lot of momentum. They have lost three of their past four games, and their play inside the red zone is a big issue. The offense has struggled inside the scoring zone all along, while the defense has declined precipitously in this area as the season has progressed. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on about 60 percent of their red-zone opportunities. The Bucs' inability to get off the field on third down is part of the problem; if they improve in that area, it would reduce opponents' red-zone opportunities. On offense, the Bucs' problem seems to be poor communication and fundamental mistakes. Penalties, botched exchanges off the snap and dropped passes have far too often forced the team to settle for field goals when touchdowns are needed.
The good news is the team's pass rush is really humming. DT Jovan Haye and DE Greg White have developed into an effective duo that is regularly creating sacks and fumble situations. The running game is deep with RBs Earnest Graham and Michael Bennett, and RB Michael Pittman appears healthy again after missing several weeks with an ankle sprain. The receiving corps is as shallow as the running back corps is deep. Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are nicked up, and Michael Clayton is inconsistent. Beyond that the unit is comprised mostly of practice squad players, so look for Tampa to lean more on its tight ends as pass catchers. The Bucs have the ability to upset a team or two in the postseason, but their opening round game against the Giants is a tough one. New York has a devastating pass rush and runs the ball well -- both are areas Bucs have struggled against this year.
New York Giants
The Giants head into the postseason as the team they were most of the regular season: anchored by a pass-rushing defense, reliant on a grinding, powerful running game and plagued by an inconsistent passing attack. The team is hopeful, however, that QB Eli Manning's four-TD performance Saturday against the Patriots will provide a much-needed spark. Manning must be sharp against one of the league's top pass defenses.
Manning slumped again in the latter stages of the season, struggling mightily in bad weather. He likely is looking forward to playing in Florida. The fourth-year QB also will be able to throw to a healthier WR Plaxico Burress, who continues to improve from the sprained ankle that limited him most of the season.
RB Brandon Jacobs should be a formidable challenge for Tampa's ultra-quick but undersized defensive line. The Giants are usually successful when they run first behind a solid offensive line, but too often the coaches become enamored with the pass game and force the issue.
The line might be without C Shaun O'Hara (sprained MCL), who was strong in making line calls this season. Fellow veteran Grey Ruegamer would replace him.
The run defense has been mostly stout this season; MLB Antonio Pierce excels at getting his teammates in the right formation. The unit might be without WLB Kawika Mitchell (sprained MCL), who came on strong late in the regular season. Second-year LB Gerris Wilkinson would replace Mitchell. Wilkinson is a superb athlete who lacks experience. He did, however, play well in place of Mitchell on Saturday.
Few defenses can match the pass-rushing firepower of DEs Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck, but when the pressure doesn't reach the quarterback, the secondary often cannot hold up. Bucs QB Jeff Garcia's ability to buy time in the pocket makes it even more important for the line to get to him.
The secondary is lacking in talent, particularly at cornerback. Sam Madison can be beaten by receivers with pure speed. He also is nursing an abdominal strain he suffered Saturday. If Madison can't go, Corey Webster would replace him. Webster has had his playing time reduced because of his struggles this season. Aaron Ross put in a promising rookie year but his inexperience shows at times.
The Giants do their best work on the road, where they were 7-1 this season and finished with a franchise-record seven-game winning streak. They certainly can go into Tampa and post the franchise's first playoff victory since 2000.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins are has hot as any team in the league, excluding New England. The Redskins have won four games in a row, have found their rhythm on offense and are playing with high motors on defense. They might have the weakest record of the playoff teams, but they are no pushover. ...
Todd Collins is not the Redskins' quarterback of the future, but he is the quarterback the club needs at the moment. He runs the offense without having to think through his progressions, knows where every player is supposed to be and has confidence that his wideouts are going to get open and make tough catches, which Santana Moss has done with regularity. Collins is smart with the ball when nothing is open, opting to throw it away rather than risk a turnover. The revitalization of the passing game has forced teams to take a man out of the box and create more space for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. The right side of the line has stabilized, giving Collins adequate protection and providing cutback lanes for Portis when teams load up on the left side. But the most important factor in all this is that Collins' performance has given the entire unit a confidence boost. ...
The defense has varied its schemes depending on the opponent and has gotten a revitalized effort from the front four. DE Andre Carter is capping off an outstanding season and has become a force on every snap. Inside, DTs Cornelius Griffin and Anthony Montgomery are getting a strong push, and backup Kedric Golston makes a maximum impact with a minimum of snaps. In addition, LaRon Landry's ability to shift from strong to free safety has stabilized the secondary.
SN correspondents
http://www.sportingnews.com
Each week, Sporting News correspondents provide insight and analysis on every NFL team. Here are the playoff outlooks for the six teams in the NFC postseason field.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have to get their offense fixed in the two weeks before their first playoff game. For the second time in three games, Dallas failed to score a touchdown. Part of the problem has been injuries to WR Terrell Owens and C Andre Gurode, both of whom should be back for the playoffs. Another part of the problem, though, has been the team's inability to consistently run the ball. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett doesn't seem to have much confidence in the ground game, having called fewer than 17 running plays in three of the Cowboys' past four games. Dallas ran the ball 16 times for one yard in Sunday's loss to the Redskins, something that should be considered unacceptable for a team that had two Pro Bowl offensive linemen (LT Flozell Adams and RG Leonard Davis) and a Pro Bowl running back (Marion Barber) in the game. The Cowboys ran the ball on consecutive plays just twice against Washington. Garrett has shown a tendency recently to give up on the run early in games. That's something he probably needs to change as the Cowboys enter the postseason. ...
OLB DeMarcus Ware finished the season with 14 sacks and will be in the final conversation for defensive player of the year. Ware, who is also strong against the run, had a sack and two forced fumbles against Washington. Although he plays on the weak side most of the time, he has the speed to track plays down from the backside as well as play strong at the point of attack. Dallas needs him to be a difference-maker in the playoffs if it's going to get to the Super Bowl, because without a pass rush opponents attack the Cowboys' secondary.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are an anomaly in Green Bay: They are better-suited to playing indoors where they can take advantage of their speed and five-receiver sets. They don't want to play on a sloppy track or in a windstorm.
Of late, they're running the ball better with RB Ryan Grant, a downhill runner with deceptive speed and the ability to break away from the final line of defense. Grant's long runs, however, mask some of the consistency problems the team has on the ground. This offense clearly sets up the run with the pass and when it has to line up and grind out yardage it really can't. When the passing game is going, however, it's hard to stop. Few teams can put enough quality cornerbacks on the field to match the team's receivers.
QB Brett Favre runs the show. His ability to anticipate blitzes and read coverages is invaluable. If teams pressure him, however, they have a chance. The interior of the offensive line is vulnerable, especially if RG Jason Spitz (thigh) and backup LG Junius Coston (calf) can't play next week. Rookie Allen Barbre is next in line.
The defense is much better suited for winning slugfests. When NT Ryan Pickett is healthy the run defense is solid. The cornerback tandem of Al Harris and Charles Woodson is one of the best in the league, but the safeties are liabilities in coverage, especially against tight ends. If the club meets the Cowboys again, it's going to have to consider dividing coverage of WR Terrell Owens between Harris and Woodson. Harris gets too worked up and loses his concentration.
As a whole, this team is equipped to get to the championship game because it has a quarterback with Super Bowl experience, a fine defense and good kick returners. Getting past the Cowboys will be a challenge, though.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks enter the playoffs having won six of their final eight games and are relatively healthy. Perhaps most important, they play their opening-round game at home. But Seattle still isn't running the ball with enough consistency to be considered a legitimate contender to make its second Super Bowl run in the past three years. In particular, the team is struggling on the ground in short-yardage situations.
That's why the importance of coach Mike Holmgren's decision to return to his pass-first roots when the team was 4-4 cannot be overemphasized. Holmgren put the ball -- and the fate of the offense -- into the hands of QB Matt Hasselbeck, who responded with a career season despite rarely having starting WRs Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett on the field together. Hasselbeck did more than just make do with what he had. For evidence, look no further than WR Bobby Engram, who set a franchise record with 94 receptions for the first 1,000-yard receiving season of his 12-year career.
RB Shaun Alexander, the league MVP in '05, has shown signs of regaining at least a portion of his past productivity in the past two games. Anything he supplies in the playoffs will be a bonus for an offense that learned to play without him while he was sidelined for three games with a sprained knee.
The defense, meanwhile, has been playing at a playoff level for most of the season -- aside from the meltdown against the Falcons in the regular-season finale, that is. The unit is still undersized, something that has been a problem when Seattle faces power backs who run behind large offensive lines. But the Seahawks' defenders compensate by playing fast and aggressively. With DE Patrick Kerney leading the way, the Seahawks have produced 45 sacks and 34 turnovers -- a big reason why they were able to hold opponents to 18.2 points per game.
The Seahawks have shown they can beat just about any opponent -- and any style of play -- at Qwest Field. If they get past the Redskins on Saturday, the big question will be: Can they win a playoff game on the road for the first time since the 1983 season?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs enter the playoffs well-rested but without a lot of momentum. They have lost three of their past four games, and their play inside the red zone is a big issue. The offense has struggled inside the scoring zone all along, while the defense has declined precipitously in this area as the season has progressed. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on about 60 percent of their red-zone opportunities. The Bucs' inability to get off the field on third down is part of the problem; if they improve in that area, it would reduce opponents' red-zone opportunities. On offense, the Bucs' problem seems to be poor communication and fundamental mistakes. Penalties, botched exchanges off the snap and dropped passes have far too often forced the team to settle for field goals when touchdowns are needed.
The good news is the team's pass rush is really humming. DT Jovan Haye and DE Greg White have developed into an effective duo that is regularly creating sacks and fumble situations. The running game is deep with RBs Earnest Graham and Michael Bennett, and RB Michael Pittman appears healthy again after missing several weeks with an ankle sprain. The receiving corps is as shallow as the running back corps is deep. Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are nicked up, and Michael Clayton is inconsistent. Beyond that the unit is comprised mostly of practice squad players, so look for Tampa to lean more on its tight ends as pass catchers. The Bucs have the ability to upset a team or two in the postseason, but their opening round game against the Giants is a tough one. New York has a devastating pass rush and runs the ball well -- both are areas Bucs have struggled against this year.
New York Giants
The Giants head into the postseason as the team they were most of the regular season: anchored by a pass-rushing defense, reliant on a grinding, powerful running game and plagued by an inconsistent passing attack. The team is hopeful, however, that QB Eli Manning's four-TD performance Saturday against the Patriots will provide a much-needed spark. Manning must be sharp against one of the league's top pass defenses.
Manning slumped again in the latter stages of the season, struggling mightily in bad weather. He likely is looking forward to playing in Florida. The fourth-year QB also will be able to throw to a healthier WR Plaxico Burress, who continues to improve from the sprained ankle that limited him most of the season.
RB Brandon Jacobs should be a formidable challenge for Tampa's ultra-quick but undersized defensive line. The Giants are usually successful when they run first behind a solid offensive line, but too often the coaches become enamored with the pass game and force the issue.
The line might be without C Shaun O'Hara (sprained MCL), who was strong in making line calls this season. Fellow veteran Grey Ruegamer would replace him.
The run defense has been mostly stout this season; MLB Antonio Pierce excels at getting his teammates in the right formation. The unit might be without WLB Kawika Mitchell (sprained MCL), who came on strong late in the regular season. Second-year LB Gerris Wilkinson would replace Mitchell. Wilkinson is a superb athlete who lacks experience. He did, however, play well in place of Mitchell on Saturday.
Few defenses can match the pass-rushing firepower of DEs Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck, but when the pressure doesn't reach the quarterback, the secondary often cannot hold up. Bucs QB Jeff Garcia's ability to buy time in the pocket makes it even more important for the line to get to him.
The secondary is lacking in talent, particularly at cornerback. Sam Madison can be beaten by receivers with pure speed. He also is nursing an abdominal strain he suffered Saturday. If Madison can't go, Corey Webster would replace him. Webster has had his playing time reduced because of his struggles this season. Aaron Ross put in a promising rookie year but his inexperience shows at times.
The Giants do their best work on the road, where they were 7-1 this season and finished with a franchise-record seven-game winning streak. They certainly can go into Tampa and post the franchise's first playoff victory since 2000.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins are has hot as any team in the league, excluding New England. The Redskins have won four games in a row, have found their rhythm on offense and are playing with high motors on defense. They might have the weakest record of the playoff teams, but they are no pushover. ...
Todd Collins is not the Redskins' quarterback of the future, but he is the quarterback the club needs at the moment. He runs the offense without having to think through his progressions, knows where every player is supposed to be and has confidence that his wideouts are going to get open and make tough catches, which Santana Moss has done with regularity. Collins is smart with the ball when nothing is open, opting to throw it away rather than risk a turnover. The revitalization of the passing game has forced teams to take a man out of the box and create more space for Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. The right side of the line has stabilized, giving Collins adequate protection and providing cutback lanes for Portis when teams load up on the left side. But the most important factor in all this is that Collins' performance has given the entire unit a confidence boost. ...
The defense has varied its schemes depending on the opponent and has gotten a revitalized effort from the front four. DE Andre Carter is capping off an outstanding season and has become a force on every snap. Inside, DTs Cornelius Griffin and Anthony Montgomery are getting a strong push, and backup Kedric Golston makes a maximum impact with a minimum of snaps. In addition, LaRon Landry's ability to shift from strong to free safety has stabilized the secondary.
posted by The Gryphon at 9:07 PM
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