Saturday, May 31, 2008

DMN Gosselin: Super heroes? Teams with top QBs have best shot at title

There's an urge every NFL off-season to be different. Go against the flow.

I did in 1996. The Cowboys were coming off their third Super Bowl championship in four seasons. I put the Green Bay Packers No. 1 in my annual off-season rankings that June. I hit – the Packers won it all that year. That was my best call.

My worst call? I put Pittsburgh No. 1 in 1998 and Philadelphia No. 1 in 2005. The Steelers and Eagles missed the playoffs those seasons, both with 6-10 records. I learned my lesson – stay away from the Keystone State.

Parity has taught me another lesson. The meek can inherit the earth. I placed St. Louis 23rd in my annual off-season rankings in 1999, New England 22nd in 2001 and the New York Giants 21st in 2007. All went on to win Super Bowls.

I picked New England No. 1 last June, and the Patriots came within 36 seconds of being labeled the greatest team in NFL history. But when Plaxico Burress caught that 13-yard touchdown pass on a fade rout with 35 seconds left in the Super Bowl, the Patriots lost the game and their bid for a perfect season.

The Giants won the Lombardi Trophy, but I'm still of the belief the Patriots are the best team in football. That's why I'm putting New England atop my off-season rankings once again in 2008. It's the first time I've gone with a team in back-to-back off-seasons since the Packers in 1996-97. Green Bay went to the Super Bowl both years.

The NFL always has been and always will be a game of quarterbacks – and the Patriots have the best in Tom Brady. He presides over the highest-scoring offense in NFL history. His prolific right arm produced 4,806 passing yards, a record 50 touchdown passes and 598 points in 2007.

Brady always seems to have the Patriots playing in front. He put them up 14-0 in the first quarter of a game against Buffalo last season. By halftime in other games, he had the Patriots up 20-0 against Cleveland, 24-0 against San Diego and Washington and 28-0 against Miami.

New England played 1,140 minutes of football in 19 games last season and trailed on the scoreboard only 160 of those minutes.

The 2006 NFL champion Indianapolis Colts also are allowed to have Super Bowl aspirations in 2008. They have Peyton Manning. That's why I put them No. 2. The Cowboys are allowed to have Super Bowl aspirations. They have Tony Romo. That's why they are No. 3. The San Diego Chargers are allowed to have Super Bowl aspirations. They have an emerging Philip Rivers at quarterback. That's why they are No. 4.

Find the quarterbacks and you'll find the legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Truthfully, who could have envisioned the Rams in 1999, the Patriots in 2001 and the Giants in 2007 winning Super Bowls? Except that St. Louis quarterback Kurt Warner was the NFL MVP in 1999, Brady the Super Bowl MVP in 2001, and New York's Eli Manning outplayed Romo, Brett Favre and Brady in consecutive games in winning Super Bowl MVP honors in February.

Manning is the reason the Giants didn't stray far from the top in the rankings this off-season. New York sits sixth. He's one of only four quarterbacks to take his team to the playoffs each of the last three seasons, joining his brother Peyton, Brady and Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck.

I also included Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Seattle in my top 10. All three teams sent quarterbacks to the Pro Bowl last season. I slotted Jacksonville at No. 5 and Philadelphia No. 9.

David Garrard finished third in the NFL in passing for the Jaguars last season with a league-low three interceptions, and Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb gets the John Elway pass because of his five Pro Bowl appearances.

Quarterbacking also is the reason Green Bay slides from NFC runner-up in 2007 to No. 18 this month. With the retirement of Favre, the Packers are no longer automatic contenders.