Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Giant hurdle? Cowboys have what it takes to go on Super run

By Charley Casserly
CBS Sports

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants lost tough games last week. The Giants came out better because they clinched the division with the Cowboys' loss. The Cowboys have their backs against the wall as they go into the final three games of the season. They are the sixth seed now, but that means nothing with three games to play. There are too many teams that still have a shot at the playoffs.

The Cowboys are still a very dangerous team, and if they get into the playoffs they are capable of going on a run like the Giants did last season. As a wild card, they would either go to Arizona or Minnesota/Chicago for the first playoff game -- a game they would be favored to win. If they get past that game, then they have momentum and as we can see from last year momentum is important in the playoffs.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Let's take a look at this week's game against New York. From the Giants' point of view, they are going into a tough game in Dallas for a couple of reasons. One, Dallas is desperate. Two, it is hard for a team to play at a high level for a long period, especially against quality opposition.

Dallas defense vs. New York offense
The key to the Giants' offense is their ability to run the ball. That starts with having a healthy Brandon Jacobs. As good as Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward are, the Giants need Jacobs to pound the opposing defense. The run is important to the Giants because it sets up the play-action passing game, which is what Eli Manning does best.

The Cowboys will try to take away the run first. That is their philosophy. They can be a very physical front. A key inside is Cowboys nose tackle Jay Ratliff. He will face Giants center Shaun O'Hara. This is a key matchup for the Cowboys because if they cannot win this matchup, the Giants can run the ball inside.

The Cowboys' inside linebackers, Bradie James and Zach Thomas, have been inconsistent against the inside run. If the Giants have to use one of their guards to help on Ratliff this will give James and Thomas a chance to be successful against the run. But if the Giants' guards have a free shot at the linebackers, it will be a long game for them.

I would look for a very physical game in the trenches. Both teams are excellent in their respective lines in this matchup. The team with the greater intensity will win this matchup.

I think the Cowboys outside linebackers -- especially DeMarcus Ware -- can set the edge against the Giants and control the outside running attack.

The real key for the Giants is how they will throw. Without Plaxico Burress, the Cowboys will not have to double any of the Giants' receivers. This will allow the Cowboys to put an eighth man in the box to play the run. I believe they will first try to stop the run with seven men in the box, but if they struggle they will commit the eighth man and dare the Giants to throw.

Manning has had a fine year, but like any other quarterback he can be a little off at times, as he was Sunday. The Giants do not have a true No. 1 receiver right now. Amani Toomer is a good route runner but not a true deep threat, Steve Smith is a good slot receiver and Domenik Hixon is the x-factor. He can and has made big plays for the Giants. He will loom as a key in Sunday's game.

The two players to watch when the Giants have the ball are the Cowboys' Ratliff, to see if he forces the Giants to commit two men to him, and the Giants' Hixon, to see if he comes up with big and consistent plays in this game because he will have his chances.

New York defense vs. Dallas offense
I thought it was interesting that owner Jerry Jones called out running back Marion Barber for not playing in last week's game against the Steelers. I would expect Barber to do everything possible to play against the Giants. He will be important because the Cowboys are going to have to have balance against the Giants, and that means running the ball.

The key matchups are the Cowboys' receivers against the Giants' corners and safeties. Another key for the Cowboys will be pass protection, giving their receivers to the opportunity to make plays. It will start with the offensive tackles, Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo, being matched up against Giants defensive ends Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka.

But the most important matchup for the Cowboys will be at left guard, where they have lost Kyle Kosier for the season. Giants defensive tackle Fred Robbins has had a good season, and it will be important for the Cowboys to find a way to neutralize him.

If the Cowboys can neutralize the front four of the Giants this will give Tony Romo a chance to throw the ball. The Giants' corners will press the Cowboys' receivers and gamble that the pass rush will get there. If it does not come quickly then I think the Dallas receivers will have a chance to get open.

Then it will come down to two things. The first will be how the Giants play Terrell Owens and Jason Witten. I think they will mix coverages so when they are not pressuring with any more than their front four, they will double both of them. But when they are pressuring with the blitz, the Cowboys will probably face one-on-one coverage and when that happens they must win.

Two keys in watching the Cowboys' receivers is will Owens be consistent catching the ball and will Roy Williams have a big game. You know the Cowboys will try to get the ball to Owens and Witten, but the Giants are going to have to cover Williams one on one.

The keys for me when watching this side of the ball will be does Owens catch the ball consistently, how will the Cowboys block Tuck as the Giants move him between end and tackle, does Robbins become a factor inside for the Giants and will the Cowboys not try to force the ball to Owens and Witten and throw it to Williams.

Conclusion
I believe the Cowboys will win this game. I think the Cowboys will play with the intensity they have played with the past month and the Giants will still be a little off their game. I think the Cowboys will hold the Giants running game in check.

I think the key will be the Cowboys' secondary containing the Giants' receivers and the Cowboys' receivers making plays. On paper, the Giants have the edge in both of these areas. Normally I pick the team that has the edge in the matchups, but the Cowboys are capable of playing great. I think they will rise up and play their best game of the year.