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Better Than You Think
Spagnola: Everyone Wants To Know About The Cowboys
IRVING, Texas - No matter where you go in this vast country or who you see, they all want to know:
So how are the Cowboys going to do this season?
The universal $64,000 question.
I mean, come on, it didn't matter where I was over the past two glorious weeks, be it cruising through the Inside Passage of Alaska, walking the streets of Anchorage or in Bears Country at a reception overlooking the Chicago River just off Wacker Drive.
So how are the Cowboys going to do?
And they meant business, too. They wanted to know right now, before they even practiced one time in pads. Before any of these draft choices offer a hint about whether they can contribute this year. Before the first preseason game is played, and certainly before we actually have a chance to see what guys such as Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky and Gerald Sensabaugh actually have.
You'd have thought the topic of the day back that last week in June would have been the death of Michael Jackson, having passed away at some point when we were in Skagway, Alaska, that Thursday, or maybe it was while retracing our steps heading out of the Lynn Canal and making the turn for Glacier Bay National Park. Time tends to stand still on vacation.
Or take this past Saturday when the news broke of Steve McNair being shot and killed in Nashville while the rains fell in Chicago, briefly stalling out the annual Taste of Chicago ritual in Grant Park. Surely that was worth discussing.
But noooo, more times than not the talk turned to the Cowboys, the 9-7, 9-7, 13-3 and 9-7 Cowboys over the past four years under the coaching jurisdictions of Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips; with Drew Bledsoe or Tony Romo at quarterback; and with or without the self-appointed Sacrificial Lamb.
I mean, really, you think you can get away, and then somewhere in the middle of the Pacific Ocean you run into a guy from Amarillo and then Arlington (that's Texas) and Austin and Corpus Christi, too, reminding you of just how big the state of Texas is, although the good folks of the great state of Alaska, where I do think you can see Russia from there, like to remind you the state of Texas geographically fits nicely - with room to spare - inside their scenic state.
So typically my answer was, "Better than most think."
And that's "better" in a different way, one that won't require scoring 30 points a game to assure themselves of a victory. Did you realize that the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 despite giving up 23 points or more in seven of their 16 games, and managing to win all but two of them?
Did you realize the Cowboys went 9-7 in 2008 despite giving up at least 22 points in nine of their 16 games but this time winning only three of those games?
You also should remember the Cowboys never scored more than 14 points in any of the three games Tony Romo missed with the fractured finger, winning just one of those.
And though most choose to forget, as I was wont to point out to my Arizona-based relatives, in that one game in Glendale, Ariz., the Cowboys lost Felix Jones for the season, Mat McBriar for the season, Romo for the next three games, Anthony Spencer for the next two games, were already without Terence Newman, Kyle Kosier, Roy Williams and Pat Watkins, and then on top of all that, lost the game, too.
Just the facts.
Play better defense, improve on special teams and maybe you won't have to average 23 points a game to win. Hey, I see where Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl averaging just 21.6 points a game - one less than the Cowboys. And get this, the Steelers didn't have any receiver with more than seven touchdown catches, nor did they rush for more yards than the Cowboys. Also, their quarterbacks threw 10 fewer touchdown passes and actually had 381 fewer yards passing.
But then all they had to score was 14 points a game to win since their defense only gave up an average of 13.9 a game, and, as importantly, they only turned the ball over 25 times, eight fewer than the Cowboys.
Anyway, since returning I checked around on a few different sites for 2009 NFL team odds, you know, just who the gambling people already are favoring only three days past The Fourth. The results are still surprising, and I'm guessing especially to those around here who seem to think the Cowboys will be returning to the 6-10 of Parcells' second season in Dallas when a few weeks into training camp they ran off Quincy Carter, the same Quincy Carter who subsequently now has worn out his welcome in New York (Jets), Montreal, Shreveport, Kansas City and now I see Abilene, Texas, of all places.
Here seems to be the consensus: The Cowboys' odds rank consistently in the top three to win the NFC and in the top six or seven to win the Super Bowl. That does not smell of 6-10.
Let's see, VegasInsider has the Cowboys third in the NFC at 6/1, behind the Giants (9/2) and Eagles (11/2). So, close. And when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, they have the Cowboys at 11-1, tied for fourth behind New England (4/1), Pittsburgh (15/2) and the Giants (9/1) but side by side with Philadelphia and Indianapolis.
Then there is the National Sports Advisors. In the NFC, again it's tight, with the Giants at 4/1, Eagles at 9/2 and the Cowboys at 11/2. A site named Touthouse has the Cowboys tied for the fourth best odds of winning the Super Bowl at 12/1, behind New England (9/2), Pittsburgh (9/1) and the Giants (10/1).
They were in about the same position at Bookmakers, listed at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl, tied with Philly and San Diego, but behind New England (4/1), Pittsburgh (8/1) and the Colts (11/1). And on The Spread, they were fifth at 14-1, behind the usual New England (9/2), Pittsburgh (9/1), Giants (10/1) and Indianapolis (12/1).
So all pretty consistent, but nothing like the 20/1 or 50/1 odds where some teams were listed.
The point being, and certainly I'm not touting any betting service nor do I think this is a healthy activity to participate in, but these people set these odds for a living, so either they know something a whole lot of people don't or, and this is always very possible, they are banking on the many Cowboys fans all over this world to put their money where their hearts are.
We'll see in due time if better becomes good enough.
Spagnola: Everyone Wants To Know About The Cowboys
IRVING, Texas - No matter where you go in this vast country or who you see, they all want to know:
So how are the Cowboys going to do this season?
The universal $64,000 question.
I mean, come on, it didn't matter where I was over the past two glorious weeks, be it cruising through the Inside Passage of Alaska, walking the streets of Anchorage or in Bears Country at a reception overlooking the Chicago River just off Wacker Drive.
So how are the Cowboys going to do?
And they meant business, too. They wanted to know right now, before they even practiced one time in pads. Before any of these draft choices offer a hint about whether they can contribute this year. Before the first preseason game is played, and certainly before we actually have a chance to see what guys such as Keith Brooking, Igor Olshansky and Gerald Sensabaugh actually have.
You'd have thought the topic of the day back that last week in June would have been the death of Michael Jackson, having passed away at some point when we were in Skagway, Alaska, that Thursday, or maybe it was while retracing our steps heading out of the Lynn Canal and making the turn for Glacier Bay National Park. Time tends to stand still on vacation.
Or take this past Saturday when the news broke of Steve McNair being shot and killed in Nashville while the rains fell in Chicago, briefly stalling out the annual Taste of Chicago ritual in Grant Park. Surely that was worth discussing.
But noooo, more times than not the talk turned to the Cowboys, the 9-7, 9-7, 13-3 and 9-7 Cowboys over the past four years under the coaching jurisdictions of Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips; with Drew Bledsoe or Tony Romo at quarterback; and with or without the self-appointed Sacrificial Lamb.
I mean, really, you think you can get away, and then somewhere in the middle of the Pacific Ocean you run into a guy from Amarillo and then Arlington (that's Texas) and Austin and Corpus Christi, too, reminding you of just how big the state of Texas is, although the good folks of the great state of Alaska, where I do think you can see Russia from there, like to remind you the state of Texas geographically fits nicely - with room to spare - inside their scenic state.
So typically my answer was, "Better than most think."
And that's "better" in a different way, one that won't require scoring 30 points a game to assure themselves of a victory. Did you realize that the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 despite giving up 23 points or more in seven of their 16 games, and managing to win all but two of them?
Did you realize the Cowboys went 9-7 in 2008 despite giving up at least 22 points in nine of their 16 games but this time winning only three of those games?
You also should remember the Cowboys never scored more than 14 points in any of the three games Tony Romo missed with the fractured finger, winning just one of those.
And though most choose to forget, as I was wont to point out to my Arizona-based relatives, in that one game in Glendale, Ariz., the Cowboys lost Felix Jones for the season, Mat McBriar for the season, Romo for the next three games, Anthony Spencer for the next two games, were already without Terence Newman, Kyle Kosier, Roy Williams and Pat Watkins, and then on top of all that, lost the game, too.
Just the facts.
Play better defense, improve on special teams and maybe you won't have to average 23 points a game to win. Hey, I see where Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl averaging just 21.6 points a game - one less than the Cowboys. And get this, the Steelers didn't have any receiver with more than seven touchdown catches, nor did they rush for more yards than the Cowboys. Also, their quarterbacks threw 10 fewer touchdown passes and actually had 381 fewer yards passing.
But then all they had to score was 14 points a game to win since their defense only gave up an average of 13.9 a game, and, as importantly, they only turned the ball over 25 times, eight fewer than the Cowboys.
Anyway, since returning I checked around on a few different sites for 2009 NFL team odds, you know, just who the gambling people already are favoring only three days past The Fourth. The results are still surprising, and I'm guessing especially to those around here who seem to think the Cowboys will be returning to the 6-10 of Parcells' second season in Dallas when a few weeks into training camp they ran off Quincy Carter, the same Quincy Carter who subsequently now has worn out his welcome in New York (Jets), Montreal, Shreveport, Kansas City and now I see Abilene, Texas, of all places.
Here seems to be the consensus: The Cowboys' odds rank consistently in the top three to win the NFC and in the top six or seven to win the Super Bowl. That does not smell of 6-10.
Let's see, VegasInsider has the Cowboys third in the NFC at 6/1, behind the Giants (9/2) and Eagles (11/2). So, close. And when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, they have the Cowboys at 11-1, tied for fourth behind New England (4/1), Pittsburgh (15/2) and the Giants (9/1) but side by side with Philadelphia and Indianapolis.
Then there is the National Sports Advisors. In the NFC, again it's tight, with the Giants at 4/1, Eagles at 9/2 and the Cowboys at 11/2. A site named Touthouse has the Cowboys tied for the fourth best odds of winning the Super Bowl at 12/1, behind New England (9/2), Pittsburgh (9/1) and the Giants (10/1).
They were in about the same position at Bookmakers, listed at 12/1 to win the Super Bowl, tied with Philly and San Diego, but behind New England (4/1), Pittsburgh (8/1) and the Colts (11/1). And on The Spread, they were fifth at 14-1, behind the usual New England (9/2), Pittsburgh (9/1), Giants (10/1) and Indianapolis (12/1).
So all pretty consistent, but nothing like the 20/1 or 50/1 odds where some teams were listed.
The point being, and certainly I'm not touting any betting service nor do I think this is a healthy activity to participate in, but these people set these odds for a living, so either they know something a whole lot of people don't or, and this is always very possible, they are banking on the many Cowboys fans all over this world to put their money where their hearts are.
We'll see in due time if better becomes good enough.
posted by The Gryphon at 9:08 AM
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