Thursday, August 06, 2009

S.I.: Trendy Super Bowl Pick is........

very year about this time, you can count on trendy NFL predictions making the training-camp rounds. You could practically set your calendar to them, like the swallows returning to Capistrano. If NFL training camps are in full-swing, it must be time to pick some NFL sleepers, surprises and flops.
After all, who doesn't want to be trendy? Why Doc Martens, when you can slip on some Toms? Why post something on MySpace when you can Tweet? So let's separate fact from fiction and sift through the trendiest picks circulating this summer. Which ones have wings? And which won't fly?

The trendy pick: A Cowboys Super Bowl run?
Why this pick makes sense:
This is a classic case of addition and subtraction. No more Terrell Owens. No more Jessica. No more tabloid headlines.

No more kinder, gentler, pushover Wade Phillips, either. Phillips promised to wield a heavier stick and hold players more accountable on the field and off, after coming thisclose to getting fired last season. Thus far, Phillips is sticking to the plan and players acknowledge seeing a much tougher coach in camp.

And we haven't even mentioned Adam "Pacman" Jones and Tank Johnson yet. They got the boot, too.

It could only lead to better things, including in the standings. Personal discord often leads to locker-room discord. And if the Cowboys ever wondered exactly where the line was for Drama Overload, the 2008 season crossed it.

This summer, players and coaches are talking and playing football. Pretty much only football. Let's not forget that with or without T.O., Tank and Pacman, the Cowboys remain one of the most talented teams in the league.

Romo has been working hard on passing technique and protecting the ball, and Felix Jones is emerging as a spectacular talent.

Sure, the Cowboys may always teeter on the brink of some kind of neurosis, simply because they are Jerry Jones' Cowboys and drama is part of the business plan.

But they were the most under-achieving team in the NFL a year ago. With clearer heads, a harder-working and determined Romo and Phillips taking more charge of discipline, things could get a lot better.

Why it may not fly:
T.O. was a pain, all right. He was also a pain for defenses, even with bouts of the drops and his production falling off significantly. He commanded attention and Romo will miss him. Do you really think Roy Williams will offer the same kinds of threat?

As for Romo, did his penchant for making the big flub at the most inopportune times leave with T.O. and Jessica? It's hard to believe those distractions caused Romo to make big mistakes. He has yet to prove he can carry a team to the next level.

Still, the biggest hurdle to overcome remains Wade Phillips' job status. At the first sign of trouble, after the first two-game skid, the rumors are sure to start. There is no distraction quite like a coaching change. It's not a matter of if, but when names like Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher or Brian Billick begin to surface.

How long will the players really respect Phillips' tough-guy stance, too? After 30 years of being the same kind of guy, coaching the same kind of way, could anyone expect Phillips to change? Hardly.

Oh, yeah, a couple other reasons it may not fly: the Eagles and the Giants.

So will it happen?
Not likely. The Cowboys should be better and have first-rate talent, but even if everything goes swimmingly, it would be hard to pass the Giants and Eagles. With Phillips looking over his shoulder, it will be impossible.