Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Terrell Owens' fantasy value skyrockets with Dallas

Spin: Owens jumps as a Cowboy
Fox Sports

Terrell Owens' fantasy value skyrockets with Dallas after being suspended for the final nine games with Philadelphia last season.

Owens reclaims his status as a member of fantasy's best receiving class with Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. He becomes a legitimate top-10 receiver and second-round choice again.
Prior to the 2005 season, Owens had off-the-field issues with Philadelphia, including financial grievances and conflict with teammates, such as Donovan McNabb.

This season, Owens arrives with a hefty new contract, a clean slate with teammates and a head coach who has successfully managed suspended malcontents.

Bill Parcells integrated Keyshawn Johnson in 2004 after the receiver was suspended for poor behavior by Tampa Bay in 2003.

After being traded to Philadelphia prior to the 2004 season, Owens was one of the league's most productive receivers before a knee injury sidelined him for the final two games. He caught 77 passes for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns in 14 games.

Aside from last season's debacle with the Eagles, Owens has averaged 89 receptions for 1,293 yards and 13 touchdowns in the previous five seasons with San Francisco and Philadelphia. He was also healthy and reliable, averaging 15 games per season. He's averaged .9 touchdowns per game with 71 scores in his 80 contests over the past six seasons.

Owens will match his 2004 totals of 77 receptions for 1,200 yards and 14 scores over a 16-game season.

Owens' impact will also improve the performance of his teammates, like quarterback Drew Bledsoe and running back Julius Jones, and keep the fantasy values of receivers Terry Glenn and Jason Witten steady.

Entering his 11th season, Owens makes the Cowboys more explosive with his ability to score on deep and short routes using his speed, skills and running ability.

He's a vast upgrade over the recently released Johnson. The former Cowboy lacked the big-play ability of Owens and was more of a possession receiver, averaging 11.8 yards per reception compared to Owens' 16.2. Johnson was also averaging just 910 receiving yards and six touchdowns over his Dallas career. That's respectable for a secondary receiver, but inferior to an elite one like Owens.

Owens has helped his quarterbacks reach career highs in touchdown passes. Jeff Garcia threw for a career-high 4,278 yards in 2001 and a career-best 32 touchdowns in 2002 with Owens as the 49ers' No. 1 receiver. McNabb had his best season when Owens joined the Eagles in '04, when he threw for career highs of 3,875 yards and 31 touchdowns.


Bledsoe passed for 3,639 yards and 23 touchdowns last season. This year, he can snap his career high of 28 touchdowns with Owens.

However, Owens has played in West Cost offenses with the 49ers and Eagles. One concern is whether Bledsoe can work with him on shorter routes more conducive to the West Coast offense. Owens often uses his game-breaking speed for yards after the catch. Still, Parcells will figure ways to utilize his talent in the Cowboys' more vertical offense.

The presence of Owens will help keep safeties from stopping the run in order to help coverage of Owens downfield. That should open more running lanes for Jones. The third-year back averaged only 3.9 yards and scored just five times last season. He should average more than 4.0 yards and receive more scoring chances next season. If he stays healthy, Jones will reach 1,000 yards for the first time.

Glenn, who is also entering his 11th season, will be relegated to a second receiver. While Glenn will likely be thrown to less frequently, he will have more chances to exploit single coverage and produce big plays. He has a strong rapport with Bledsoe after playing with him for seven seasons. He caught 62 passes for 1,136 yards and seven touchdowns last season as the primary receiver. Those stats are unlikely to improve, but he remains a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver nonetheless.

The signing of tackle Jason Fabini upgrades Dallas' offensive line and won't likely require Witten to block as much as last season at the tight end position. Prior to Owens' signing, Witten had a better chance to match his 2004 career highs of 87 catches for 980 yards.

However, Witten will be more likely to approach his 66 catches for 757 yards and six scores of 2005 with fewer passes thrown his way than in '04. That still makes him one of fantasy's top-five tight ends.

This may be Parcells' last season before retirement. He'll be working with a more potent offensive attack with greater big-play capability, helping his chances of returning to the Super Bowl.

In return, at least for next season, he will be assisting Owens' fantasy owners for receiving production of a top No. 1 receiver again.