Sunday, April 16, 2006

Four Downs: NFC East

Four Downs: NFC East
Foxsports
Posted: 2 hours ago
Don't perceive the hype

A frequent source of conflict between football fanatics and their significant others is vacation time. The non-football fan spouse may want to take some time during the autumn to travel north to see the foliage, or maybe south or to an island to escape the frigid weather in late fall.

To the football fan, this is crazy talk. Who in their right mind would go away for any length of time during the football season, never mind on a game day Sunday? There are injury reports to read, highlight shows to watch, fantasy trades to be made. Who would ever want to leave the friendly confines of one's living room with a dozen sports channels and wireless internet access allowing one to read every newspaper and football-related column in the country?

Off-season breakdown

Allow me to propose a compromise that will allow the non-football fan spouse a rare week's vacation in the fall and save the football fan spouse thousands in marriage counseling and divorce attorney fees. When this year's NFL schedule comes out, find out which week Dallas travels to Philadelphia, and plan your vacation accordingly.

Don't be worried about missing any vital football analysis that may be going on that week. In fact, we already have a summary of that week's football
coverage, eight months in advance:

T.O. RETURNS TO PHILADELPHIA! MCNABB! OWENS! PHILADELPHIA! T.O! HAVE YOU HEARD, TERRELL OWENS WILL BE PLAYING IN PHILADELPHIA THIS WEEK! TERRELL OWENS AND DONOVAN MCNABB DON'T GET ALONG! EAGLES FANS BOOED SANTA CLAUS! HAVE I MENITONED THAT TERRELL OWENS WILL BE RETURNING TO PHILADELPHIA?

With their three-year, $25-million contract for Terrell Owens, the Dallas Cowboys have inflicted pain upon millions of innocent Americans, not to mention Bill Parcells. Maybe it would be worth it if wide receiver was a position of need for the Cowboys. But whatever weaknesses Dallas' offense may have had last season, wide receiver wasn't one of them.

In Philadelphia, Owens filled a clear, gaping hole in the offense. That team was in desperate need of a true No. 1 receiver. In Dallas, Owens replaces Keyshawn Johnson, and while that's an upgrade, it's really just a small one.

Over the past few years, Owens has better numbers, but he also got to play with better quarterbacks. Owens had 230 more yards and six more touchdowns in 2004 — but he also had Donovan McNabb throwing him the ball, not Vinny Testaverde.

At Football Outsiders, our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric compares every play to the league-average, for both teams and players — with quarterbacks being compared only to other quarterbacks and wide receivers only to other wide receivers. Last year, the combined DVOA for Dallas receivers was 9.2 percent, which ranked eighth in the league. Add in Jason Witten and the combined DVOA for Dallas receivers and tight ends is 14.0 percent, tied for fifth in the league with NFC champion Seattle.

And yet, Drew Bledsoe had a DVOA of only 5.3 percent, which ranked him 18th among all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts. Matt Hasselbeck — getting roughly the same value from his wide receivers and tight ends — had a DVOA of 28.4 percent, which ranked sixth. What's the difference? The Seahawks have a younger and more accurate quarterback, a better running game and a far better offensive line. That means fewer sacks, fewer interceptions and fewer balls just thrown away due to pressure.