DMN Cowlishaw: Cowboys will rejoin playoff party, but that's all
Before the NFL season actually starts is always a good time to talk authoritatively about how it is going to end.
And this is how it will end:
With a Super Bowl in Miami.
Before discussing the two teams headed to XLI, let's take a look at the XXX teams that aren't going to make it.
The Cowboys will make their second trip to the playoffs under coach Bill Parcells. But they will extend the club's longest playoff victory drought to 10 years.
There's a lot to like about this team considering the way it performed in the preseason. The Cowboys don't even need an All-Pro season from Terrell Owens to make the playoffs. They do need an All-Pro season from their other big-name addition, kicker Mike Vanderjagt, who was reluctant to even step onto the field in August.
That's a concern, and so is an offensive line that's expected to start a guy who wasn't great in Detroit (Kyle Kosier), a guy who got cut in Chicago (Marc Colombo), a guy who hasn't been a huge success here (Andre Gurode) and a guy who underperformed here a year ago after back surgery (Marco Rivera), along with Flozell Adams, who absolutely has to stay healthy.
The Cowboys are a good team that wins 10 games. But they are a team that makes no playoff run.
We'll go a little quicker through the other 29.
We can eliminate Houston and New Orleans because no team has gone from 2-14 or 3-13 to a Super Bowl. We can eliminate Oakland , because the Raiders' 4-0 preseason record is the biggest Mirage outside the Las Vegas strip.
We can eliminate Green Bay, because one year after throwing 29 interceptions, a 38-year-old Brett Favre won't take the Packers anywhere good. We can eliminate Detroit, because new coach Rod Marinelli thinks a good way to develop team toughness is to fly five hours from Detroit to Oakland on the day of a preseason game.
We can eliminate the team that has fantasy football owners drooling because, despite the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Edgerrin James in the same huddle, they are still the Cardinals. We can eliminate Miami, because no team has played a Super Bowl on its home field. And also because the chance of Daunte Culpepper being 100 percent recovered from knee surgery is slim.
We can eliminate San Francisco because we just saw what it had at Texas Stadium. We can eliminate the Jets, Browns, Bills and Titans for obvious reasons.
We can eliminate Washington, because a team relying heavily on a running back (Clinton Portis) playing with a shoulder he separated recently is asking for trouble. We can eliminate the Giants because Eli Manning is getting closer to being Peyton, but not that close.
We can eliminate Atlanta, because Michael Vick remains the most overrated, overpaid player in the league. We can eliminate Tampa Bay , because, while we like a lot of what Jon Gruden is doing with the Buccaneers, we're still talking about Chris Simms, aren't we?
We can eliminate Minnesota, because the Vikings already have been hit by injuries on defense and are counting on a lot from Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor to carry the offense. We can eliminate Cincinnati (though we hate to do it), because it's not likely that Carson Palmer makes it back from major knee surgery unscathed.
We can eliminate New England, because Adam Vinatieri and Willie McGinest and David Givens and too many others are gone.
We can eliminate Baltimore because Brian Billick is still there.
We can eliminate St. Louis, because the craziness of Mike Martz did more good than harm for that team. We can eliminate Kansas City , because that great offensive line is getting older – those players who haven't already retired.
We can eliminate Denver because, at the end of the day, it's still Jake Plummer. We can eliminate Jacksonville, because simply dog-piling on Houston and Tennessee four times won't be enough.
We can eliminate Philadelphia, because a quieter atmosphere with Owens gone is not necessarily a superior atmosphere (see San Francisco in 2004 and 2005 for details). We can eliminate Carolina, because no team ever got more mileage out of an offense built around one receiver than the Panthers did in 2005.
We can eliminate San Diego, because although Philip Rivers one day will be better than Drew Brees, that day won't arrive this season. We can eliminate Seattle, because we have paid attention to what happens to teams after losing Super Bowls. And we can eliminate Pittsburgh, because their true identity is that of the team that went 11-5 during the regular season, not 4-0 in the postseason.
Finally, we have arrived. And so have the Colts and Bears.
Indianapolis will miss James less than any team has missed a terrific 1,500-yard rusher. The Colts' line and scheme, and their opponents' understandable focus on Manning, will open holes for Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, a talented rookie from LSU.
Don't believe it?
When James suffered a knee injury in 2001, Rhodes played in 15 games and made 10 starts. The Colts did not suffer as the rookie ran for more than 1,100 yards.
Addai and Rhodes will push each other for playing time. Indianapolis' receiving corps is intact. The defense is very, very good.
The Colts' time is here. And so, strangely enough, is Chicago's.
The Colts' magical offense against the Bears' great defense will make for a special game and monstrous TV ratings. But know why Chicago is going to get there? Because the Bears got significantly better in the off-season when they signed Brian Griese. Why doesn't anyone else understand that?
Griese may begin the season as the backup to Rex Grossman, but that won't last. Griese is no Peyton Manning, but he can be to the Bears what Trent Dilfer was to the Ravens and what Brad Johnson was to the Bucs when those teams rode defenses to Super Bowl wins.
Griese played in 17 games for Tampa Bay the last two years. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes. That's a higher percentage than Ben Roethlisberger, than Donovan McNabb, than Matt Hasselbeck, than Peyton Manning ... oops, it's the highest in the league.
Who wins this classic matchup? Are you kidding?
It's Sept. 3. I can't give you all the answers.
And this is how it will end:
With a Super Bowl in Miami.
Before discussing the two teams headed to XLI, let's take a look at the XXX teams that aren't going to make it.
The Cowboys will make their second trip to the playoffs under coach Bill Parcells. But they will extend the club's longest playoff victory drought to 10 years.
There's a lot to like about this team considering the way it performed in the preseason. The Cowboys don't even need an All-Pro season from Terrell Owens to make the playoffs. They do need an All-Pro season from their other big-name addition, kicker Mike Vanderjagt, who was reluctant to even step onto the field in August.
That's a concern, and so is an offensive line that's expected to start a guy who wasn't great in Detroit (Kyle Kosier), a guy who got cut in Chicago (Marc Colombo), a guy who hasn't been a huge success here (Andre Gurode) and a guy who underperformed here a year ago after back surgery (Marco Rivera), along with Flozell Adams, who absolutely has to stay healthy.
The Cowboys are a good team that wins 10 games. But they are a team that makes no playoff run.
We'll go a little quicker through the other 29.
We can eliminate Houston and New Orleans because no team has gone from 2-14 or 3-13 to a Super Bowl. We can eliminate Oakland , because the Raiders' 4-0 preseason record is the biggest Mirage outside the Las Vegas strip.
We can eliminate Green Bay, because one year after throwing 29 interceptions, a 38-year-old Brett Favre won't take the Packers anywhere good. We can eliminate Detroit, because new coach Rod Marinelli thinks a good way to develop team toughness is to fly five hours from Detroit to Oakland on the day of a preseason game.
We can eliminate the team that has fantasy football owners drooling because, despite the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Edgerrin James in the same huddle, they are still the Cardinals. We can eliminate Miami, because no team has played a Super Bowl on its home field. And also because the chance of Daunte Culpepper being 100 percent recovered from knee surgery is slim.
We can eliminate San Francisco because we just saw what it had at Texas Stadium. We can eliminate the Jets, Browns, Bills and Titans for obvious reasons.
We can eliminate Washington, because a team relying heavily on a running back (Clinton Portis) playing with a shoulder he separated recently is asking for trouble. We can eliminate the Giants because Eli Manning is getting closer to being Peyton, but not that close.
We can eliminate Atlanta, because Michael Vick remains the most overrated, overpaid player in the league. We can eliminate Tampa Bay , because, while we like a lot of what Jon Gruden is doing with the Buccaneers, we're still talking about Chris Simms, aren't we?
We can eliminate Minnesota, because the Vikings already have been hit by injuries on defense and are counting on a lot from Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor to carry the offense. We can eliminate Cincinnati (though we hate to do it), because it's not likely that Carson Palmer makes it back from major knee surgery unscathed.
We can eliminate New England, because Adam Vinatieri and Willie McGinest and David Givens and too many others are gone.
We can eliminate Baltimore because Brian Billick is still there.
We can eliminate St. Louis, because the craziness of Mike Martz did more good than harm for that team. We can eliminate Kansas City , because that great offensive line is getting older – those players who haven't already retired.
We can eliminate Denver because, at the end of the day, it's still Jake Plummer. We can eliminate Jacksonville, because simply dog-piling on Houston and Tennessee four times won't be enough.
We can eliminate Philadelphia, because a quieter atmosphere with Owens gone is not necessarily a superior atmosphere (see San Francisco in 2004 and 2005 for details). We can eliminate Carolina, because no team ever got more mileage out of an offense built around one receiver than the Panthers did in 2005.
We can eliminate San Diego, because although Philip Rivers one day will be better than Drew Brees, that day won't arrive this season. We can eliminate Seattle, because we have paid attention to what happens to teams after losing Super Bowls. And we can eliminate Pittsburgh, because their true identity is that of the team that went 11-5 during the regular season, not 4-0 in the postseason.
Finally, we have arrived. And so have the Colts and Bears.
Indianapolis will miss James less than any team has missed a terrific 1,500-yard rusher. The Colts' line and scheme, and their opponents' understandable focus on Manning, will open holes for Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, a talented rookie from LSU.
Don't believe it?
When James suffered a knee injury in 2001, Rhodes played in 15 games and made 10 starts. The Colts did not suffer as the rookie ran for more than 1,100 yards.
Addai and Rhodes will push each other for playing time. Indianapolis' receiving corps is intact. The defense is very, very good.
The Colts' time is here. And so, strangely enough, is Chicago's.
The Colts' magical offense against the Bears' great defense will make for a special game and monstrous TV ratings. But know why Chicago is going to get there? Because the Bears got significantly better in the off-season when they signed Brian Griese. Why doesn't anyone else understand that?
Griese may begin the season as the backup to Rex Grossman, but that won't last. Griese is no Peyton Manning, but he can be to the Bears what Trent Dilfer was to the Ravens and what Brad Johnson was to the Bucs when those teams rode defenses to Super Bowl wins.
Griese played in 17 games for Tampa Bay the last two years. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes. That's a higher percentage than Ben Roethlisberger, than Donovan McNabb, than Matt Hasselbeck, than Peyton Manning ... oops, it's the highest in the league.
Who wins this classic matchup? Are you kidding?
It's Sept. 3. I can't give you all the answers.
posted by The Gryphon at 11:28 AM
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