Thursday, November 09, 2006

New Favorite Targets

by Gregg Rosenthal
Rotoworld Roundup

Nothing changes the composition of an offense more than a change at the quarterback position. Popular plays are junked, routes are adjusted, and new favorite receivers emerge. When Tony Romo took over the starting job in Dallas, the conventional wisdom said that Romo's favorite receiver was Terrell Owens, not Terry Glenn.

But was conventional wisdom right? Using Rotoworld's Season Pass package, I decided to look at what effect quarterback changes have had on team trends in pass targets. In Dallas, conventional wisdom was on the right track.

Cowboys targets under Drew Bledsoe (5.5 games)

Terrell Owens – 48
Terry Glenn – 40
Jason Witten – 28
Patrick Crayton – 13

Cowboys targets under Tony Romo (2.5 games)

Terrell Owens – 33
Terry Glenn – 15
Jason Witten – 24
Patrick Crayton – 9

Tony Romo can deny he favors T.O., but the numbers say it all. When Romo drops back, Owens is more than twice as likely to get a pass thrown his way than Terry Glenn. While Owens led the team in targets under Bledsoe, it was closely bunched considering that Glenn generally runs longer routes.

Another big change that jumps out is how active Jason Witten has been with Romo at the helm. A young two-time Pro Bowler, Witten's receiving numbers suffered a sharp decline this year when Owens arrived. Now he's getting the ball consistently. Terry Glenn ultimately looks like Romo's third option and Witten may earn another trip to Hawaii.

Even Patrick Crayton is getting more involved under Romo. He's turned those nine targets into seven catches for 150 yards and a touchdown. That's wildly efficient and indicates that Crayton should become a bigger part of the passing game.

Most observers would expect Bill Parcells to scale back his offense with Romo at the helm, but the first-time starter is actually passing more often than Bledsoe was. The Big Tuna is so confident in the kid; we wonder why he waited so long to make the switch.