Yakuza Rich: Dallas' Record Defies Logic
This will be in my latest blog post at http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com/
The three factors I look for in a Super Bowl squad are sacks, points allowed, and turnover margin. And here's why:
1. 19 of the last 20 teams that *went* to the Super Bowl had at least 40 sacks during the regular season (2001 Patriots had 38 sacks)
2. The last team to finish outside the top 8 in points allowed and to win the Super Bowl was the 1983 Raiders.
3. 19 of the last 20 teams that *went* to the Super Bowl had a positive turnover margin during the regular season (2003 Panthers had a -5 turnover margin).
It's pretty much a statistical fact that if you want to go to the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl, your team needs to do well in turnover margin, giving up points, and sacking the opposing Quarterback.
These factors do correlate well to winning during the regular season. But every year there's a team that does relatively well in these factors and still winds up not making the playoffs or even having a sub .500 record. On the flip side, there's usually a team that does poorly in these factors and still makes the playoffs.
In essence, those factors correlate to winning and they even become more important during the postseason. A team like the 2005 Denver Broncos or the 2004 San Diego Chargers were thought to be Super Bowl contenders in their respective seasons. But, they wound up losing in the playoffs because their inability to sack the QB (both only had 28 sacks in their respective seasons) came back to haunt them in the end.
Lately, I wanted to come up with my own efficiency rankings. So I tried to look at the following factors:
- Points allowed Per Game
- Rushing Yards Differential (Total Rushing Yards Gained - Total Rushing Yards Allowed)
- 3rd down Conversion Differential (3rd Down % converted - 3rd down % converted allowed)
- Time of Possession
- Turnover Margin
- QB Rating Differential (QB Rating - QB Rating Allowed)
- Sack Differential (Sacks - Sacks Allowed)
- Yards Per Passing Attempt Differential (YPA - YPA Allowed)
Here's how the teams finally ranked:
1. San Diego
2. Chicago
3. Jacksonville
4. Baltimore
5. Denver
6. New York Giants
7. New England
8. Dallas
9. Minnesota
10. Kansas City
11. New Orleans
12. Philadelphia
13. Indianapolis
14. Atlanta
15. Pittsburgh
16. St. Louis
17. Miami
18. Green Bay
19. Cincinnati
20. Washington
21. NY Jets
22. Seattle
23. Carolina
24. Buffalo
25. Arizona
26. Cleveland
27. Detroit
28. Tampa Bay
29. San Francisco
30. Houston
31. Oakland
32. Tennessee
The teams that are currently in the top 10 have a combined record of 55-25. They are currently on pace to average 11 wins this season.
The teams in the bottom 10 have a combined record or 23-57 and are on pace for 4.6 wins this season.
Some may wonder why the Cowboys rank so high. Here's how they stacked up in each category
Points Allowed Per Game (15th)
Running Game Differential (5th)
3rd Down Conversion Differential (1st)
Time of Possession (3rd)
Turnover Margin (15th)
QB Rating Differential (15th)
Sack Differential (22nd)
Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential (9th)
Outside of Sack Differential, the Cowboys were at least average in all of the other categories. And they are excellent at time of possession, the running game battle, and the best in the league on 3rd downs.
Stats in football aren't about certainty, they are about probability. Just as like it's possible for me to flip a coin 10 times and it coming up tails on 9 out of 10 flips, it's certainly not probable. Thus while it's possible to be doing well in these categories and not having an above .500 record in the NFL, it's certainly not probable that will happen.
If Romo can continue to play at his current pace, we're likely to see Dallas get better in the Yards Per Attempt Differential, Sacks Differential and QB Rating Differential. And thus if things keep at the same rate as it has been with Romo as the QB, Dallas is probable to make the playoffs.
That being said, if Dallas does make the playoffs at this current rate they are unlikely to make the Super Bowl. Like the 2004 Chargers and the 2005 Broncos, they don't nearly get to the QB enough like they should and they don't hold their opponents scoring down well enough either.
In other words, there should be a ceiling to Cowboys fans optimism.
ADDENDUM QUESTION: Why are the Colts only ranked 13th?
The Colts defense is really killing them and they are being saved by a season where Peyton has just done enough against terrible teams and then played incredible against good teams. Still, they aren't doing very well in following categories:
Sack Differential (14th)
Time of Possession (22nd)
Running Game Differential (32nd)
Points Allowed (20th)
They rank 5th in 3rd down conversion differential, but they should rank higher. They are converting 54% of their 3rd downs, but are also allowing 46% of their 3rd downs to be converted.
Not only that, they only have 11 sacks this year. For the Colts to make the Super Bowl, much less win the Super Bowl, it would probably wind up being the biggest statistical abberation in NFL history.
The three factors I look for in a Super Bowl squad are sacks, points allowed, and turnover margin. And here's why:
1. 19 of the last 20 teams that *went* to the Super Bowl had at least 40 sacks during the regular season (2001 Patriots had 38 sacks)
2. The last team to finish outside the top 8 in points allowed and to win the Super Bowl was the 1983 Raiders.
3. 19 of the last 20 teams that *went* to the Super Bowl had a positive turnover margin during the regular season (2003 Panthers had a -5 turnover margin).
It's pretty much a statistical fact that if you want to go to the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl, your team needs to do well in turnover margin, giving up points, and sacking the opposing Quarterback.
These factors do correlate well to winning during the regular season. But every year there's a team that does relatively well in these factors and still winds up not making the playoffs or even having a sub .500 record. On the flip side, there's usually a team that does poorly in these factors and still makes the playoffs.
In essence, those factors correlate to winning and they even become more important during the postseason. A team like the 2005 Denver Broncos or the 2004 San Diego Chargers were thought to be Super Bowl contenders in their respective seasons. But, they wound up losing in the playoffs because their inability to sack the QB (both only had 28 sacks in their respective seasons) came back to haunt them in the end.
Lately, I wanted to come up with my own efficiency rankings. So I tried to look at the following factors:
- Points allowed Per Game
- Rushing Yards Differential (Total Rushing Yards Gained - Total Rushing Yards Allowed)
- 3rd down Conversion Differential (3rd Down % converted - 3rd down % converted allowed)
- Time of Possession
- Turnover Margin
- QB Rating Differential (QB Rating - QB Rating Allowed)
- Sack Differential (Sacks - Sacks Allowed)
- Yards Per Passing Attempt Differential (YPA - YPA Allowed)
Here's how the teams finally ranked:
1. San Diego
2. Chicago
3. Jacksonville
4. Baltimore
5. Denver
6. New York Giants
7. New England
8. Dallas
9. Minnesota
10. Kansas City
11. New Orleans
12. Philadelphia
13. Indianapolis
14. Atlanta
15. Pittsburgh
16. St. Louis
17. Miami
18. Green Bay
19. Cincinnati
20. Washington
21. NY Jets
22. Seattle
23. Carolina
24. Buffalo
25. Arizona
26. Cleveland
27. Detroit
28. Tampa Bay
29. San Francisco
30. Houston
31. Oakland
32. Tennessee
The teams that are currently in the top 10 have a combined record of 55-25. They are currently on pace to average 11 wins this season.
The teams in the bottom 10 have a combined record or 23-57 and are on pace for 4.6 wins this season.
Some may wonder why the Cowboys rank so high. Here's how they stacked up in each category
Points Allowed Per Game (15th)
Running Game Differential (5th)
3rd Down Conversion Differential (1st)
Time of Possession (3rd)
Turnover Margin (15th)
QB Rating Differential (15th)
Sack Differential (22nd)
Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential (9th)
Outside of Sack Differential, the Cowboys were at least average in all of the other categories. And they are excellent at time of possession, the running game battle, and the best in the league on 3rd downs.
Stats in football aren't about certainty, they are about probability. Just as like it's possible for me to flip a coin 10 times and it coming up tails on 9 out of 10 flips, it's certainly not probable. Thus while it's possible to be doing well in these categories and not having an above .500 record in the NFL, it's certainly not probable that will happen.
If Romo can continue to play at his current pace, we're likely to see Dallas get better in the Yards Per Attempt Differential, Sacks Differential and QB Rating Differential. And thus if things keep at the same rate as it has been with Romo as the QB, Dallas is probable to make the playoffs.
That being said, if Dallas does make the playoffs at this current rate they are unlikely to make the Super Bowl. Like the 2004 Chargers and the 2005 Broncos, they don't nearly get to the QB enough like they should and they don't hold their opponents scoring down well enough either.
In other words, there should be a ceiling to Cowboys fans optimism.
ADDENDUM QUESTION: Why are the Colts only ranked 13th?
The Colts defense is really killing them and they are being saved by a season where Peyton has just done enough against terrible teams and then played incredible against good teams. Still, they aren't doing very well in following categories:
Sack Differential (14th)
Time of Possession (22nd)
Running Game Differential (32nd)
Points Allowed (20th)
They rank 5th in 3rd down conversion differential, but they should rank higher. They are converting 54% of their 3rd downs, but are also allowing 46% of their 3rd downs to be converted.
Not only that, they only have 11 sacks this year. For the Colts to make the Super Bowl, much less win the Super Bowl, it would probably wind up being the biggest statistical abberation in NFL history.
posted by The Gryphon at 3:53 PM
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