Thursday, June 07, 2007

Ranking NFL Teams During the Offseason

Publication Source The Dallas Morning News
Publication Date 2007-06-07

DALLAS _ It's been two years since the New England Patriots have won a Super Bowl.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts haven't been the problem, although those two AFC rivals have captured the last two NFL championships.

Attrition has been the problem for the Patriots _ good players have been leaving New England at a faster clip than good players have been arriving. Forty-five different players started in New England's three Super Bowls in 2001, 2003 and 2004. Only 16 of those starters remain.

Veteran Pro Bowlers Corey Dillon, Ty Law, Willie McGinest and Lawyer Milloy all became salary-cap casualties. Fellow Pro Bowlers Damien Woody and Adam Vinatieri left in free agency, and Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch was traded.

That departure of individual greatness has chipped away at New England's dominance this decade. The Patriots lost in the AFC semifinals in 2005 and the AFC title game in 2006. The Patriots have come to the realization that they need more than the aura of Tom Brady to win championships.

So coach Bill Belichick has loaded up for what appears to be a one-year run with one of his busiest off-seasons ever. He traded for pass catchers Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and signed Pro Bowl linebacker Adalius Thomas in free agency.

On paper, the Patriots are again the most talented team in the AFC. So put them atop the annual off-season rankings by The Dallas Morning News.

1. New England

The Patriots have not had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2001 yet have one of the NFL's best passing games, never finishing lower than 12th in Tom Brady's five full seasons as the starting quarterback. Even in 2006, New England finished 12th without a difference-maker on the flank. Reche Caldwell led the Patriots with 61 catches for 760 yards. How good would Brady be with elite receivers? We'll find out in 2007 with the addition of five-time Pro Bowler Randy Moss, Miami's leading receiver Wes Welker and former first-round draft pick Donte Stallworth.

Final 2006 rank: 2

2. San Diego

The Chargers were the NFL's most talented team in 2006 from September through December, winning a league-best 14 games. The key figures return to the field in 2007, including NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. But off the field is another story. Head coach Marty Schottenheimer was sacked and coordinators Cam Cameron (offense) and Wade Phillips (defense) both left for head-coaching positions elsewhere. Norv Turner is now the head coach of a gifted team.

Final 2006 rank: 3

3. Indianapolis:

The Colts lost seven players this off-season who started 84 games for the Super Bowl champions in 2006. But the Colts are a resilient team that knows how to play to its strengths. Indianapolis won that NFL title last season despite the worst run defense, scoring defense and special teams in Super Bowl history. But as long as Peyton Manning is taking the snaps, there's a calm and confidence on the Colts.

Final `06 rank: 1

4. Baltimore

The Ravens won a Super Bowl in 2000 with great defense and the legs of Jamal Lewis. That great defense remains _ it ranked first in the NFL again in 2006 _ but Lewis was no longer the workhorse he was in 2000. Baltimore won 13 games despite the NFL's 25th-ranked rushing attack. The Ravens addressed that problem by trading for RB Willis McGahee. But the defense took a hit with the free-agent defection of Pro Bowl LB Adalius Thomas to New England.

Final `06 rank: 4

5. New Orleans

The Saints were the feel-good story of 2006. After spending the 2005 season in San Antonio because of Hurricane Katrina, the Saints staged a triumphant return to New Orleans last fall with a first-ever trip to the NFC title game. How much of that success was emotion and how much of it was talent? We'll see this season. But there's no questioning the talent of offensive playmakers Drew Brees and Reggie Bush.

Final `06 rank: 6

6. Denver

Bill Belichick wasn't the only coach with a sense of urgency this off-season. Mike Shanahan also was loading up for a run in Denver, trading for cornerback Dre Bly, signing RB Travis Henry and TE Daniel Graham in free agency, and drafting pass rushers Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder. Shanahan put rookie QB Jay Cutler on the field in November with an eye on 2007. He has great expectations for both Cutler and his team this fall.

Final `06 rank: 11

7. Philadelphia

The Eagles stormed to the NFC East crown with a season-ending five-game winning streak. They did it with two of their best players watching from the sideline. QB Donovan McNabb missed the last six games and DE Jevon Kearse the last 10, both with knee injuries. Defensively, the Eagles needed to toughen up against the run and did so in free agency by signing LB Takeo Spikes and DTs Montae Reagor and Ian Scott.

Final `06 rank: 9

8. Chicago

The Bears have not handled success well. They traded 1,000-yard rusher Thomas Jones, and Pro Bowl LB Lance Briggs and pass rusher Alex Brown would like to follow him out of town. Both have asked to be traded. The Bears reached the Super Bowl with rookie Devin Hester setting an NFL record with six return touchdowns. They can't bank on that type of good fortune on special teams again. Chicago needs Rex Grossman to carry more of the load in 2007.

Final `06 rank: 5

9. Seattle

The Seahawks failed to defend their NFC crown in 2006. That's not a surprise when you consider offensive catalysts RB Shaun Alexander (foot) and QB Matt Hasselbeck (knee) missed a combined 10 games because of injuries. After combining for 53 touchdowns in 2005, they fell off to 25 in 2006. Coach Mike Holmgren is anxious to have them back full time at full speed in 2007. Free agent DE Patrick Kerney improves the pass rush.

Final `06 rank: 8

10. Cincinnati

The Denver Broncos were an annual contender with John Elway taking the snaps. The same can be said of the Miami Dolphins when Dan Marino was their quarterback. Carson Palmer brings that same swagger and confidence to the Bengals. He's one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL today. RB Rudi Johnson and WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh provide a sterling supporting cast. Too bad none of them play defense.

Final `06 rank: 20

11. Jacksonville

An unsettled quarterback position could again torpedo a talented football team. The Jaguars ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense last season but missed out on the playoffs with an 8-8 record. First-round draft pick Reggie Nelson adds playmaking skill at safety, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew is an emerging star.

Final `06 rank: 19

12. N.Y. Jets

The Jets are a statistical anomaly. They finished 20th in the NFL in defense and 25th in offense with a rookie head coach in 2006 _ but still won 10 games for a wild-card playoff spot. Chad Pennington is one of the NFL's most underrated quarterbacks. Coach Eric Mangini got him some help in 2007 by trading for RB Thomas Jones.

Final `06 rank: 7

13. Carolina

The Panthers had a quiet off-season with little roster turnover. They don't need new players as much as they need healthy ones. Carolina saw its Super Bowl hopes crash in 2006 with a rash of injuries, losing an NFC-high 80 games by starters. Three draft picks could wind up starting: LB Jon Beason, WR Dwayne Jarrett and C Ryan Kalil.

Final `06 rank: 18

14. Pittsburgh

The Steelers are without coach Bill Cowher for the first time since 1991. But Mike Tomlin inherits a franchise quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) and a skilled team just one year removed from an NFL championship. Despite an 8-8 record in 2006, Pittsburgh was one of only three teams to rank in the NFL's top 10 in both offense and defense.

Final `06 rank: 14

15. Dallas

A new coach brings a new attitude on defense. Wade Phillips is going to turn his young speed loose, so you'll see a more aggressive scheme in 2007 than under Bill Parcells in 2006. But any success by the Cowboys will depend on which quarterback shows up _ the Tony Romo who flourished in November or the Romo who floundered in December.

Final `06 rank: 13

16. Tennessee

The Titans won six of their last seven games in 2006 to finish at .500. But NFL Rookie of the Year Vince Young will be without a 1,200-yard rusher (Travis Henry) and his two top receivers, Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, who both left in free agency. Elite cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones also will sit the 2007 season with an NFL suspension.

Final `06 rank: 12

17. Green Bay

The Packers went young under first-year coach Mike McCarthy in 2006, milking a league-high 66 starts out of their rookie class and still finishing 8-8. But veteran Pro Bowl RB Ahman Green left in free agency, so a return to playoff contention in 2007 hinges on the ability of Vernand Morency and rookie Brandon Jackson to generate a ground game.

Final `06 rank: 15

18. Kansas City

The Chiefs have been one of the oldest teams in the NFL this decade and don't have a single playoff victory to show for their experience. So coach Herman Edwards has vowed to go with younger players and will give second-year QB Brodie Croyle a chance to unseat Trent Green this summer _ if Green is still around come July. He wants out.

Final `06 rank: 10

19. St. Louis

The Rams still have the offensive playmakers to compete for a playoff spot. It's the defense that needed to be fixed, in particular the NFC's worst run defense. So the Rams have reloaded up front, drafting 290-pound DT Adam Carriker in the first round, trading for DE James Hall and signing LB Chris Draft in free agency.

Final `06 rank: 16

20. San Francisco

The 49ers lost a single starter (WR Antonio Bryant) from a team that upset playoff contenders Denver and Seattle in December en route to a 7-9 record. Coach Mike Nolan upgraded the receiving corps by trading for Darrell Jackson, and new CB Nate Clements improves the NFL's 26th-ranked pass defense.

Final `06 rank: 17

21. N.Y. Giants

It's a make-or-break year for coach Tom Coughlin, who faces that challenge without his best player, thanks to the retirement of Pro Bowl RB Tiki Barber. The Giants need No. 1 draft pick CB Aaron Ross and free agent LB Kawika Mitchell to quick fix the NFL's 25th-ranked defense.

Final `06 rank: 21

22. Atlanta

Defensive-minded Jim Mora never could figure out how to use Mike Vick, and it cost him his job as head coach. Now it's Bobby Petrino's turn. Vick is a runner first in a league that requires its quarterbacks to be passers. Petrino was an offensive whiz as a college head coach at Louisville.

Final `06 rank: 23

23. Detroit

The Lions will score points as long as Mike Martz is calling the plays. First-round draft pick WR Calvin Johnson and trade acquisition RB Tatum Bell enhance a talented offensive cast. But a speedy, young defense must take the next step for the Lions to compete in the NFC North.

Final `06 rank: 31

24. Minnesota

First-round draft pick Adrian Peterson should be the front-runner for NFL Rookie of the Year honors playing on the artificial surface of the Metrodome. But Tarvaris Jackson enters his first full season as the starting quarterback, and his development will dictate playoff contention.

Final `06 rank: 26

25. Buffalo

The Bills absorbed some huge off-season hits, losing their leading rusher (Willis McGahee), leading tackler (London Fletcher) and two most talented defenders, LB Takeo Spikes and CB Nate Clements. First-round draft pick RB Marshawn Lynch needs to be special immediately for the Bills.

Final `06 rank: 22

26. Washington

After wasting back-to-back top 10 finishes on defense under Gregg Williams in 2004 and 2005, the Redskins cratered on that side of the ball in 2006, finishing 31st. So Washington signed LB London Fletcher and CB Fred Smoot in free agency and drafted safety LaRon Landry in the first round.

Final `06 rank: 27

27. Arizona

The Cardinals lost one starter in free agency (offensive tackle Leonard Davis) and used a first-round draft pick to replace him (Penn State's Levi Brown). Can Matt Leinart develop as a quarterback before aging Pro Bowl RB Edgerrin James runs out of gas?

Final `06 rank: 28

28. Miami

The Dolphins have spent the spring trying to wrangle Trent Green away from the Chiefs. He played for new Dolphins coach Cam Cameron with the Redskins in the mid-1990s. If Miami can't close that deal, the Dolphins could enter the 2007 season with Cleo Lemon at quarterback.

Final `06 rank: 24

29. Cleveland

All eyes are on QB Brady Quinn. But the Browns quietly addressed the AFC's worst rushing attack by signing RB Jamal Lewis in free agency and adding two elite blockers, G Eric Steinbach (free agency) and OT Joe Thomas (draft).

Final `06 rank: 29

30. Tampa Bay

The NFL's 29th-ranked offense was barely touched this off-season. The Bucs spent their premium dollars (LB Cato June and DT Kevin Carter in free agency) and draft picks (DE Gaines Adams in the first round) on defense.

Final `06 rank: 30

31. Houston

The decision to pass up offensive playmakers Reggie Bush and Vince Young in the 2006 draft will haunt the Texans for years to come. After finishing 28th in offense, Houston canned QB David Carr and traded for untested Matt Schaub.

Final `06 rank: 25

32. Oakland

The NFL's worst offense reloaded this off-season, drafting a QB (JaMarcus Russell) and signing an RB (Dominic Rhodes) and WR (Travis Taylor) in free agency. But a novice head coach (Lane Kiffin) will slow down any winning.

Final `06 rank: 32