Witten May Ingite the Offense
by Yakuza Rich
With Jason Garrett aboard the team as the Cowboys offensive coordinator, there's bound to be some changes made to the offense. Depending on whom you talk to, you'll get different answers on how many changes will be made. Sometimes I read reports of there being quite a few changes, and then I read reports that there are a minimal amount of changes to be made. However, it's apparent that Jason Witten's role will be changed and I *think* I have an idea of how it is supposed to set up the rest of the offense.
The reports have been consistent that Witten will be running a lot more deep passing patterns than in year's past. While his yard per catch has steadily increased the past 3 seasons, his passing plays of 20+ yards has decreased. Here's a look at his ypc and plays of 20+ yards in the past 3 years:
YEAR........................YPC................... 20+
2004..........................11.3................ ..13
2005..........................11.5................ ...7
2006.........................11.8................. ..10
When looking at Witten's play over the past 3 years, you get a different tale each season. In 2004 he almost became the main receiver at times and ran plenty of deep routes and was successful at them. Having 87 catches for 980 yards with Vinny Testaverde as your QB and Keyshawn Johnson as your #1 WR is probably a much better season than given credit for.
However, in 2005 that number dipped quite a bit. Why? Because the O-Line was injured, awful and Bledsoe was so prone to getting sacked that Witten had to stay in and block or run short patterns so they could get the ball off before the defenders came to sack Bledsoe.
In 2006 Witten sort of resurrected himself. But he didn't run those deep patterns like he did in 2004 and was mostly reserved for short and intermediate routes. Of course, his play stepped up quite a bit once Romo became the starter.
If the "new plan" for Witten holds true in 2007, I expect Witten to be used in the same fashion that Kansas City uses Tony Gonzalez and San Diego uses Antonio Gates and the same could be said for the wide receivers.
While people tend to fall in love with the Tight End that can go in motion and line up out wide like a Wide Receiver, where Gonzalez and Gates really cause opposing defenses problems is from their normal TE position.
The way their teams utilize them is that they will have them at the normal tight end spot, next to the right tackle. Then on the right sideline is the right wide receiver (example: Eddie Kennison) and have that right wide receiver line up 2 yards off the line of scrimmage. What the Chiefs/Chargers will then do is have their TE run a deep pattern and the right wide receiver run a deep pattern as well. But the key is that the TE and the WR run in harmony. This causes the defense to make a decision, either double team the TE or double team the right WR.
The big key is Gates and Gonzalez's size and speed combination. For starters, they have to be fast enough to at least maintain a similar pace as the right wide receiver. And because they are fast enough, they can now run by most linebackers in a one-on-one situation. However, their size is important because if the defense decides to fight them with a safety, they are too big for the safety to cover one-on-one. This especially gives Cover 2 defenses fits because they either have to get out of the Cover 2 shell and have the safety help out the middle or have the middle linebacker play so far back to cover the TE that they give up space against defending the run.
And that's why the Chargers and Chiefs offense has been so successful despite the lack of big name wide receivers. Gonzalez and Gates cause such a serious matchup problem that even if teams defend against them, they are now prone to being run at or allowing the other wide receivers to be put in better positions to succeed.
If Witten is used in this fashion, this is likely to benefit Terry Glenn, Terrell Owens, and Patrick Crayton. The Chiefs love to run this type of play and have Eddie Kennison get one-on-one coverage on a deep go route. The Chargers love to have Gates stop a bit short and force the safety to bite up on Gates while Eric Parker runs past them on a deep post route one-on-one.
Obviously, Owens and Glenn have the deep play capabilities (and Crayton isn't too shabby on the deep ball either). But Crayton is a good short and intermediate route guy and that's exactly the area where Owens excels in. Don't be surprised to see the Cowboys utilize a lot of 3 WR sets with Owens in the slot. Since so many teams utilize the Cover 2, the Cowboys may give the look that either Owens or Witten will attack the deep middle against the Cover 2. But from there, the possibilities are endless. And Owens may go deep and Witten may be wide open underneath. Or Witten may go deep and Owens may kill defenses on those pattened crossing patterns that he excels at. And all the meanwhile you have Crayton still as a viable option and Glenn being a huge threat with the deep ball.
With all of that being said, there is one concern.
Witten's yearly DVOA ranking for tight ends (footballoutsiders.com's way of measuring a player's performance per play compared to a replacement TE in the same game situation) has been quite good the last three seasons.
2004.....................7th
2005......................2nd
2006......................7th
So one has to wonder if they may be trying to fix something that isn't broke. However, teams have to make adjustments in the NFL each season whether they want to or not. At least you can't blame Dallas for trying.
With Jason Garrett aboard the team as the Cowboys offensive coordinator, there's bound to be some changes made to the offense. Depending on whom you talk to, you'll get different answers on how many changes will be made. Sometimes I read reports of there being quite a few changes, and then I read reports that there are a minimal amount of changes to be made. However, it's apparent that Jason Witten's role will be changed and I *think* I have an idea of how it is supposed to set up the rest of the offense.
The reports have been consistent that Witten will be running a lot more deep passing patterns than in year's past. While his yard per catch has steadily increased the past 3 seasons, his passing plays of 20+ yards has decreased. Here's a look at his ypc and plays of 20+ yards in the past 3 years:
YEAR........................YPC................... 20+
2004..........................11.3................ ..13
2005..........................11.5................ ...7
2006.........................11.8................. ..10
When looking at Witten's play over the past 3 years, you get a different tale each season. In 2004 he almost became the main receiver at times and ran plenty of deep routes and was successful at them. Having 87 catches for 980 yards with Vinny Testaverde as your QB and Keyshawn Johnson as your #1 WR is probably a much better season than given credit for.
However, in 2005 that number dipped quite a bit. Why? Because the O-Line was injured, awful and Bledsoe was so prone to getting sacked that Witten had to stay in and block or run short patterns so they could get the ball off before the defenders came to sack Bledsoe.
In 2006 Witten sort of resurrected himself. But he didn't run those deep patterns like he did in 2004 and was mostly reserved for short and intermediate routes. Of course, his play stepped up quite a bit once Romo became the starter.
If the "new plan" for Witten holds true in 2007, I expect Witten to be used in the same fashion that Kansas City uses Tony Gonzalez and San Diego uses Antonio Gates and the same could be said for the wide receivers.
While people tend to fall in love with the Tight End that can go in motion and line up out wide like a Wide Receiver, where Gonzalez and Gates really cause opposing defenses problems is from their normal TE position.
The way their teams utilize them is that they will have them at the normal tight end spot, next to the right tackle. Then on the right sideline is the right wide receiver (example: Eddie Kennison) and have that right wide receiver line up 2 yards off the line of scrimmage. What the Chiefs/Chargers will then do is have their TE run a deep pattern and the right wide receiver run a deep pattern as well. But the key is that the TE and the WR run in harmony. This causes the defense to make a decision, either double team the TE or double team the right WR.
The big key is Gates and Gonzalez's size and speed combination. For starters, they have to be fast enough to at least maintain a similar pace as the right wide receiver. And because they are fast enough, they can now run by most linebackers in a one-on-one situation. However, their size is important because if the defense decides to fight them with a safety, they are too big for the safety to cover one-on-one. This especially gives Cover 2 defenses fits because they either have to get out of the Cover 2 shell and have the safety help out the middle or have the middle linebacker play so far back to cover the TE that they give up space against defending the run.
And that's why the Chargers and Chiefs offense has been so successful despite the lack of big name wide receivers. Gonzalez and Gates cause such a serious matchup problem that even if teams defend against them, they are now prone to being run at or allowing the other wide receivers to be put in better positions to succeed.
If Witten is used in this fashion, this is likely to benefit Terry Glenn, Terrell Owens, and Patrick Crayton. The Chiefs love to run this type of play and have Eddie Kennison get one-on-one coverage on a deep go route. The Chargers love to have Gates stop a bit short and force the safety to bite up on Gates while Eric Parker runs past them on a deep post route one-on-one.
Obviously, Owens and Glenn have the deep play capabilities (and Crayton isn't too shabby on the deep ball either). But Crayton is a good short and intermediate route guy and that's exactly the area where Owens excels in. Don't be surprised to see the Cowboys utilize a lot of 3 WR sets with Owens in the slot. Since so many teams utilize the Cover 2, the Cowboys may give the look that either Owens or Witten will attack the deep middle against the Cover 2. But from there, the possibilities are endless. And Owens may go deep and Witten may be wide open underneath. Or Witten may go deep and Owens may kill defenses on those pattened crossing patterns that he excels at. And all the meanwhile you have Crayton still as a viable option and Glenn being a huge threat with the deep ball.
With all of that being said, there is one concern.
Witten's yearly DVOA ranking for tight ends (footballoutsiders.com's way of measuring a player's performance per play compared to a replacement TE in the same game situation) has been quite good the last three seasons.
2004.....................7th
2005......................2nd
2006......................7th
So one has to wonder if they may be trying to fix something that isn't broke. However, teams have to make adjustments in the NFL each season whether they want to or not. At least you can't blame Dallas for trying.
posted by The Gryphon at 9:29 PM
<< Home