Dallas vs. NY Giants Preview
by Yakuza Rich
WHEN DALLAS IS ON OFFENSE
Last season the Giants ran a 4-3 scheme and played quite a bit of Cover 2 zone. Despite changing defensive coordinators, expect much of the same given that cornerback is not a strength of theirs.
Under Parcells the Cowboys usually attacked two deep safety zone coverage by sending Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens deep. The goal was for the receivers to stretch the field and open up holes in the running game. If they need help on moving the chains with the passing game, they could have tight end Jason Witten or 3rd wideout Patrick Crayton run a short or intermediate route. If the running game got going, eventually that would force the opposing defense to play a safety up in the box and give Dallas an advantage on the deep passing game.
However the Jason Garrett plan of attack appears to be different. Expect tight ends Jason Witten and Anthony Fasano to run more deep patterns to attack the deep middle which is vulnerable in the Cover 2. Witten will likely face a lot of time being covered by MIKE backer Antonio Pierce, one of the best MIKE backers in the game. While Pierce is a skilled player, coverage is not a strength of his. He’ll probably have to rely on his guile to cover Witten deep, which he has plenty of. And if there was a Mt. Rushmore of guys who get away with defensive holding, Pierce’s head would sculpted next to Ty Law, Rodney Harrison and Gerald Hayes. Last season the Giants ranked 31st in defending TE’s (according to FO.com). If Witten can get the beat on Pierce in coverage it will cause a lot of problems for the G-Men as they’ll either have to have the LB’s play deeper in coverage which opens up the running game or switch over to different coverages like the Cover 3 or Cover 4 which can open things up for Glenn or Owens.
Last season the Giants worked hard to keep Tony Romo in the pocket since he was so effective throwing from outside of the pocket. On the one play they lost containment, Romo threw a beautiful 42 yard strike to Witten which put the Cowboys in field goal range and got them the victory. It’s unlikely the Giants will allow that same mistake to happen again.
For that to happen, it forces defensive end Osi Umenyiora to use more power moves. On that play to Witten, Umenyiora rushed up too far up the field and it gave Romo an outlet to get outside of the pocket and complete the pass. However, having Umenyiora utilize power moves plays right into his weaknesses and into left tackle Flozell Adams’ strength. The Giants may move Umenyiora to the other side where Marc Colombo isn’t nearly as powerful as Adams or perhaps have Umenyiora work as his usual self and keep a spy on Romo in case he tries to get out of the pocket.
The Cowboys will try to run at Umenyiora since he’s weak at defending the run and should in particular run at him if he starts getting good pressure on pass plays. Expect the Giants to use quite a few stunts given Dallas struggled with stunting last season.
Dallas should be able to run a bit more effectively to the right side of the O-Line. For the last 12 seasons they’ve run predominantly to the left side behind Larry Allen. Last year they were even more effective running to the left side with Kyle Kosier replacing Allen. With Leonard Davis playing right guard and Marc Colombo getting stronger, they hope to be much more versatile in the running game. Against this Giants defense, I expect quite a few draw plays to counter the blitz and their D-Line shooting up the field and perhaps a lot of quick hitters if the linebackers decide to play deep in the Cover 2 to protect against Witten and Fasano. Also be on the lookout for the 4 WR bunch formation with Witten and Fasano as 2 of the 4 receivers as Dallas used that formation quite often in preseason.
It’s not to say that Parcells didn’t try to create mismatches, but Jason Garrett comes from the Norv Turner school of offense and Norv was very focused on creating mismatches when he ran Dallas’ offense. Under Parcells Dallas would likely keep Owens on the right side, Glenn on the left side, and put Crayton in the slot. Expect Garrett to move the receivers around more and try to find what mismatches work, especially on rookie corner Aaron Ross and aging veteran RW McQuarters. He’ll probably try to see which things work and then if he finds one, keep going after it incessantly. With that, I expect to see Owens moving around the most as they probably feel he creates the most amount mismatches in their favor.
WHEN DALLAS IS ON DEFENSE
Under former O-Coordinator Jim Hufnagel, the Giants were known as a team that threw the deep ball quite often. What most people don’t realize is that the G-Men led the league in the amount of screen passes thrown last season. So the Hufnagel strategy was to throw it deep or screen it to Tiki.
Hufnagel was fired during the 2006 season and replaced by long time NFL assistant Kevin Gilbride. Barber is now retired and being replaced by behemoth tailback Brandon Jacobs whose backup is Ruben Droughns.
Dallas has obviously made changes on defense as well. Forget how different the Phillips front 7 is aligned compared to the Parcells/Zimmer scheme, the most notable difference will be in the blitzing. Below is the percent of times San Diego and Dallas blitzed last season.
PASSING DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………....27.7%
San Diego………………….41.9%
RUNNING DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………….8.4%
San Diego…………………..26.7%
TOTAL DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………….19.2%
San Diego…………………..36.0%
Frequency of blitzes is not the only difference as Parcells preferred to send 6 or 7 pass rushers when he blitzed whereas Phillips will usually only send 5 pass rushers when he blitzes. I expect rookie outside linebacker Anthony Spencer to serve as the 5th pass rusher when Dallas blitz. After him, they’ll probably blitz either one of the ILB’s in Bradie James and Akin Ayodele and after those two they’ll save some blitzes for Roy Williams. Also expect quite a few stunts. The teams that stunt the most in the league probably do it about 25% of the defensive downs. If Phillips feels that the D-Line cannot get good penetration on passing downs, he’ll probably throw in some stunts in order to get that pressure.
With all of that, I expect the Giants to mainly find ways to attack Dallas through the air. The Cowboys cornerback situation is iffy and the safeties and inside linebackers have to prove they can stop the pass.
Under Gilbride the Giants want to stop throwing so many deep passes. With Tiki gone they’ll probably cut down their amount of screen passes. They know the blitzes will be coming, so I expect a lot of 3 step drops early on, especially since the Giants seem to be very focused on getting Eli’s confidence up early in the game.
Last year the Giants had some success early on with a lot of no huddle, but stopped going to it after awhile. They could go to that again if the 3-4 base defense gives them some trouble. They probably don’t have the personnel to use 4 WR sets to take advantage of the questionable Dallas corner situation, but they will most likely use quite a 3 WR sets as well as having Shockey line up out wide like a receiver.
Phillips likes to use a lot of man-to-man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 defenses. He doesn’t like to use the Cover 2, but with the corner situation he may go to that. If Phillips does go to the Cover 2, he’s likely to send that 5th pass rusher to get pressure on the QB.
PREDICTION
I see the Giants giving Dallas a good game and having some success in the passing game, but nothing that truly exploits the team. I think at this moment both teams match up pretty well against each other, but I expect a big game from Owens. He’s healthy, he’s being moved around now, and he has something to prove which is when he usually comes up with a huge game. Dallas eventually pulls to a 11 point lead, the Giants score a late touchdown and cannot covert the 2 point conversion and Barber closes out the game for a victory.
YR’S PREDICTED SCORE: Dallas 24 NY Giants 19
WHEN DALLAS IS ON OFFENSE
Last season the Giants ran a 4-3 scheme and played quite a bit of Cover 2 zone. Despite changing defensive coordinators, expect much of the same given that cornerback is not a strength of theirs.
Under Parcells the Cowboys usually attacked two deep safety zone coverage by sending Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens deep. The goal was for the receivers to stretch the field and open up holes in the running game. If they need help on moving the chains with the passing game, they could have tight end Jason Witten or 3rd wideout Patrick Crayton run a short or intermediate route. If the running game got going, eventually that would force the opposing defense to play a safety up in the box and give Dallas an advantage on the deep passing game.
However the Jason Garrett plan of attack appears to be different. Expect tight ends Jason Witten and Anthony Fasano to run more deep patterns to attack the deep middle which is vulnerable in the Cover 2. Witten will likely face a lot of time being covered by MIKE backer Antonio Pierce, one of the best MIKE backers in the game. While Pierce is a skilled player, coverage is not a strength of his. He’ll probably have to rely on his guile to cover Witten deep, which he has plenty of. And if there was a Mt. Rushmore of guys who get away with defensive holding, Pierce’s head would sculpted next to Ty Law, Rodney Harrison and Gerald Hayes. Last season the Giants ranked 31st in defending TE’s (according to FO.com). If Witten can get the beat on Pierce in coverage it will cause a lot of problems for the G-Men as they’ll either have to have the LB’s play deeper in coverage which opens up the running game or switch over to different coverages like the Cover 3 or Cover 4 which can open things up for Glenn or Owens.
Last season the Giants worked hard to keep Tony Romo in the pocket since he was so effective throwing from outside of the pocket. On the one play they lost containment, Romo threw a beautiful 42 yard strike to Witten which put the Cowboys in field goal range and got them the victory. It’s unlikely the Giants will allow that same mistake to happen again.
For that to happen, it forces defensive end Osi Umenyiora to use more power moves. On that play to Witten, Umenyiora rushed up too far up the field and it gave Romo an outlet to get outside of the pocket and complete the pass. However, having Umenyiora utilize power moves plays right into his weaknesses and into left tackle Flozell Adams’ strength. The Giants may move Umenyiora to the other side where Marc Colombo isn’t nearly as powerful as Adams or perhaps have Umenyiora work as his usual self and keep a spy on Romo in case he tries to get out of the pocket.
The Cowboys will try to run at Umenyiora since he’s weak at defending the run and should in particular run at him if he starts getting good pressure on pass plays. Expect the Giants to use quite a few stunts given Dallas struggled with stunting last season.
Dallas should be able to run a bit more effectively to the right side of the O-Line. For the last 12 seasons they’ve run predominantly to the left side behind Larry Allen. Last year they were even more effective running to the left side with Kyle Kosier replacing Allen. With Leonard Davis playing right guard and Marc Colombo getting stronger, they hope to be much more versatile in the running game. Against this Giants defense, I expect quite a few draw plays to counter the blitz and their D-Line shooting up the field and perhaps a lot of quick hitters if the linebackers decide to play deep in the Cover 2 to protect against Witten and Fasano. Also be on the lookout for the 4 WR bunch formation with Witten and Fasano as 2 of the 4 receivers as Dallas used that formation quite often in preseason.
It’s not to say that Parcells didn’t try to create mismatches, but Jason Garrett comes from the Norv Turner school of offense and Norv was very focused on creating mismatches when he ran Dallas’ offense. Under Parcells Dallas would likely keep Owens on the right side, Glenn on the left side, and put Crayton in the slot. Expect Garrett to move the receivers around more and try to find what mismatches work, especially on rookie corner Aaron Ross and aging veteran RW McQuarters. He’ll probably try to see which things work and then if he finds one, keep going after it incessantly. With that, I expect to see Owens moving around the most as they probably feel he creates the most amount mismatches in their favor.
WHEN DALLAS IS ON DEFENSE
Under former O-Coordinator Jim Hufnagel, the Giants were known as a team that threw the deep ball quite often. What most people don’t realize is that the G-Men led the league in the amount of screen passes thrown last season. So the Hufnagel strategy was to throw it deep or screen it to Tiki.
Hufnagel was fired during the 2006 season and replaced by long time NFL assistant Kevin Gilbride. Barber is now retired and being replaced by behemoth tailback Brandon Jacobs whose backup is Ruben Droughns.
Dallas has obviously made changes on defense as well. Forget how different the Phillips front 7 is aligned compared to the Parcells/Zimmer scheme, the most notable difference will be in the blitzing. Below is the percent of times San Diego and Dallas blitzed last season.
PASSING DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………....27.7%
San Diego………………….41.9%
RUNNING DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………….8.4%
San Diego…………………..26.7%
TOTAL DOWNS
Team…………………….% of blitzes
Dallas……………………….19.2%
San Diego…………………..36.0%
Frequency of blitzes is not the only difference as Parcells preferred to send 6 or 7 pass rushers when he blitzed whereas Phillips will usually only send 5 pass rushers when he blitzes. I expect rookie outside linebacker Anthony Spencer to serve as the 5th pass rusher when Dallas blitz. After him, they’ll probably blitz either one of the ILB’s in Bradie James and Akin Ayodele and after those two they’ll save some blitzes for Roy Williams. Also expect quite a few stunts. The teams that stunt the most in the league probably do it about 25% of the defensive downs. If Phillips feels that the D-Line cannot get good penetration on passing downs, he’ll probably throw in some stunts in order to get that pressure.
With all of that, I expect the Giants to mainly find ways to attack Dallas through the air. The Cowboys cornerback situation is iffy and the safeties and inside linebackers have to prove they can stop the pass.
Under Gilbride the Giants want to stop throwing so many deep passes. With Tiki gone they’ll probably cut down their amount of screen passes. They know the blitzes will be coming, so I expect a lot of 3 step drops early on, especially since the Giants seem to be very focused on getting Eli’s confidence up early in the game.
Last year the Giants had some success early on with a lot of no huddle, but stopped going to it after awhile. They could go to that again if the 3-4 base defense gives them some trouble. They probably don’t have the personnel to use 4 WR sets to take advantage of the questionable Dallas corner situation, but they will most likely use quite a 3 WR sets as well as having Shockey line up out wide like a receiver.
Phillips likes to use a lot of man-to-man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 defenses. He doesn’t like to use the Cover 2, but with the corner situation he may go to that. If Phillips does go to the Cover 2, he’s likely to send that 5th pass rusher to get pressure on the QB.
PREDICTION
I see the Giants giving Dallas a good game and having some success in the passing game, but nothing that truly exploits the team. I think at this moment both teams match up pretty well against each other, but I expect a big game from Owens. He’s healthy, he’s being moved around now, and he has something to prove which is when he usually comes up with a huge game. Dallas eventually pulls to a 11 point lead, the Giants score a late touchdown and cannot covert the 2 point conversion and Barber closes out the game for a victory.
YR’S PREDICTED SCORE: Dallas 24 NY Giants 19
posted by The Gryphon at 9:12 AM
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