Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Week 6 Matchup: Patriots at Cowboys

The Edge

Quarterback: Advantage NE
Running backs: Advantage DAL
Receivers: Advantage NE
Offensive line: Advantage DAL
Defensive line: Advantage DAL
Linebackers: Advantage NE
Secondary: Advantage NE
Pass rushers: Advantage DAL
Special teams: Advantage NE
Depth: Advantage NE
Coaching: Advantage NE

Prediction Patriots 27 Cowboys 23

War Room scouts break down every NFL game. Here is a excerpt of their Patriots-Cowboys matchup:

Patriots Keys For Success

1. Stop the run. Bill Belichick's defense will stack the box on first downs and try to eliminate the Dallas running game. The Patriots' run defense yields only 74.2 yards per game and has allowed only one rushing touchdown. Dallas running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber III combine to average 110.2 yards rushing and one rushing TD per game. Dallas needs to run to setup the pass because the offense struggles when the running game stalls. Buffalo limited Jones/Barber to 69 yards on 20 carries and zero touchdowns last week, and the Bills should have won the game.

2. Convert on third down. Quarterback Tom Brady needs time to find slot receiver Wes Welker and tight end Ben Watson over the middle. Dallas plays the run well, but its linebackers and safeties can be exploited in pass coverage. New England converts 43 percent of third-down situations. Moving the chains on critical third downs will quiet the Texas Stadium crowd and give the Patriots momentum.

3. Neutralize Terrell Owens. New England cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs must challenge Owens on every snap, and free safety Eugene Wilson must help on downfield passes. If Owens doesn't get the ball early and often in games, his excitement and playmaking fade away. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is sure to target Owens often, but New England's secondary will make Romo pay if he forces passes to Owens.

Cowboys Keys For Success

1. Minimize Randy Moss. Dallas should double-team Moss, especially in the red zone or when he aligns opposite banged-up cornerback Anthony Henry, who didn't play last week because of a high ankle sprain. Moss leads the NFL in receiving yards (551) and is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (seven). Moss has been a blessing for Brady and the offense. He has the speed to stretch any defense and score on any snap. Dallas must not give up big plays to Moss if it is to win.

2. Protect the ball. Only Brett Favre has passed for more yards this season than Romo, but the Cowboys' quarterback must show discipline under pressure and be willing throw the ball away when nobody is open. He cannot force passes into coverage on third downs the same way he did last week -- when the Bills intercepted five of his passes and could've/should've had a couple more. Romo also lost a fumble in that game. The Cowboys entered the Buffalo game with a plus-7 turnover differential but were minus-5 on Monday night. The Cowboys surely will lose if they lose the turnover battle against New England.

3. Unleash DeMarcus Ware. Ware is the Cowboys' best pass rusher and best defensive playmaker. He should have the green light to attack Brady on every pass play Sunday. Ware is too fast off the edge for offensive tackles Matt Light and Nick Kaczur and will demand double teams in pass protection. Brady has the NFL's highest passer rating (128.7) and has been sacked only three times. Without pressure in the pocket, Brady will pick apart the Dallas secondary.