Saturday, December 15, 2007

Cowboys Look to Wrap Up NFC’s Top Seed

By Brian Smith
December 15th, 2007

As the Dallas Cowboys prepare for tomorrow’s final regular-season home game against the Philadelphia Eagles, they know that by Monday morning, they could have clinched the No.1 seed in the National Football Conference.

With the Green Bay Packers, the Cowboys’ only real competition for that spot, playing the hapless St. Louis Rams this week, though, it seems more likely that Dallas will have to wait until next week’s game at Carolina to celebrate the franchise’s first top seed since 1995.

So, for now, Dallas just needs to get centered on giving the Eagles the business, much as they did the first time around. In that game, a not-as-close-as-it-looked 38-17 Cowboy victory, quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Terrell Owens each had remarkable games, and the Dallas defense played one of its better games on the year.

Despite playing a very strong game against New England, the Eagles come to Texas Stadium in last place in the NFC East, having lost three straight. Although they have a very slight chance at a playoff berth, a loss tomorrow would essentially eliminate them from real contention.

Sorry, Philly fans, but your season ends tomorrow. As mentioned above, the Eagles haven’t been–except against Dallas–absolutely abysmal. Their last three losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, getting those extra 10 points is what separates a good team from a last-place team.

In these cases, it becomes more a matter of heart. When the pressure is on, some teams excel and come back to improbable wins (Dallas vs. Buffalo, Detroit), while others come up just a bit short (that’s you, Eagles).

For the Eagles to have any chance at all, their defense must stop Romo and Friends. No contain, mind you. Completely stop. If the Cowboys get to even just 21 points, it’s a win, because Philadelphia has absolutely no consistent offensive performers outside of running back Brian Westbrook.

Long underrated throughout the league, Westbrook is the only player keeping Philadelphia from being a Falcons-esque 3-10 right now. He is currently the NFL leader in yards from scrimmage, with 1,752. He is a threat to gain 100 yards both rushing and receiving every week, and he is one of the more explosive players with the football in the league; in the open field, he can be just as difficult to bring down as Marion Barber.

In the first meeting, he only rushed for 65 yards but added 90 yards receiving. With Dallas coming off last week’s lackluster defensive performance against the Lions, the Eagles have to be planning on a steady dose of Westbrook all game long. It’ll be interesting to see how the defense reacts to his playmaking abilities. Previously, they abandoned their usual 3-4 scheme for the 4-3 with the result that they prevented Westbrook from being able to run outside. With Tank Johnson, Jason Hatcher, and a solid corps of linebackers, it is tough for any runner to have a good game when he is funneled through the middle.

Even if Westbrook gets his, which he will, it will not be enough, given the strength of the Cowboy offense. The Eagles must rely on quarterback Donovan McNabb to play perfect football. Given his unsteady performance so far, that seems like a dicey proposition at best. Although the Cowboy secondary is giving up nearly 220 yards in the air each game–thanks, Roy “Someone Grab My Guy, I’m Blitzing” Williams–Terrence Newman, Ken Hamlin, and Anthony Henry have done a pretty good job of creating turnovers; Dallas currently has a plus-six margin.

Whether in the 3-4 or 4-3, expect head coach Wade Phillips and defensive coordinator Brian Stewart to bring constant blitzes against the Eagles–who gave up 12 sacks in one game this year–and force McNabb to scramble to save plays by himself. With only Westbrook as a legitimate playmaker, McNabb won’t be perfect. And this is a game the Eagles need to be more than perfect to win.

On offense, the Cowboys continue to put up just gaudy stat lines, and now they get an Eagle pass defense ranked just 19th in the NFL. Even with Philly’s trademark near-constant blitzing and pressure, Romo has the quickness and tenacity to avoid the rush and salvage what appears to be a busted play. If the Eagles’ pressure can’t get to Romo, it will be another career day for Owens and tight end Jason Witten.

Also, look for offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to mitigate that rush with a strong dedication to getting Julius Jones and Marion Barber significant touches of the football. As good as both players are, Dallas should not continue to neglect the running game as they have for the past few weeks. Once the playoffs begin, running the football will be one of the Cowboys’ most critical assets. If both Jones and Barber get 10-12 carries, it will keep the offense on the field while wearing out Philly’s defense and the clock.

On paper, this game looks to be another blowout, but this is one of the most intense rivalries in football history, and the two teams always play tough. The Eagles will not win a shootout; they need perfect play on both sides of the football to pull this one out. The Cowboys, however, just need to be better than Philly on one more play. With so much talent, they will.

Dallas 28, Philadelphia 20.

Notes: The Cowboys signed Jay Ratliff to a 5-year extension worth $20.5 million. Ratliff is second on the team with 13 quarterback pressures and could have been a restricted free agent after the season…despite practicing for the first time this season, wide receiver Terry Glenn will not play Sunday. Glenn, out since two knee operations in training camp, could play in the season finale in Washington before coming back for the playoffs…The Cowboys have had the NFC’s top seed four times in history; in three of those years, they won the Super Bowl.