SN Scouts: Running the Counter - Dallas Not There Yet
Posted By Ken Ilchuk 9:19 AM
With all due respect to my friend and cohort Zig Fracassi, I'm not sold on this Dallas team being a shoe-in for a trip to Tampa in February, at least not yet. Sure, they won handily on Sunday, on the road, against a team that many are picking to win their division and go to the playoffs. But like so much of what goes on in the NFL, things are not always what they seem.
Let's be honest, this just isn't a very good Browns team the Cowboys played yesterday. QB Derek Anderson missed part of the preseason due to a concussion and still looked to be shaking some rust off in game one. RB Jamal Lewis was a game time decision and was running on a swollen hammy. Braylon Edwards is coming off a foot injury that forced him to miss much of the preseason (and much of the opener based on what I saw). The defense is adjusting to life without Antwan Peek. This really is a team not ready for prime time.
I'm not denouncing the Cowboys. I'm just tempering the enthusiasm for the postseason based on a few observations from Week One.
The major issue, as Zig attested to, is the penalties. The Pokes committed 11 infractions for 82 yards on Sunday, an unacceptable number by any standard. This comes after a 2007 season that saw Dallas rank among the seven most penalized teams in the league. Does that sound like a playoff team to you? And I did a little research. Do you remember the Cowboys last two postseason contests (I know you do Cowboys fans) against Seattle (2006) and the Giants (2007)? The team committed a combined 19 penalties for 158 yards!! Do you want to know why the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game in nine years? I just told you.
In my time with the Jets, Bill Parcells used to talk about penalties, turnovers, and special teams play in terms of yards and scoring opportunities. Add up your yardage, consider the momentum swing and the effect of punting on 4th and 6 instead of going for it on 4th and 1, and that 82 yards lost in penalties by the Cowboys on Sunday could have yielded another ten points. Their average scoring drive on the day was 76 yards. Giving back 82 penalty yards was the difference between their 28 points and the 37 I predicted they should score against this team.
It turns out Dallas didn't need those points in Cleveland. But they will at other points this season. The complete lack of discipline points directly at the coaching staff. Wade Phillips has some very talented athletes at his disposal, but the mistakes, the repeated mistakes, his team makes are a direct result of the way his team practices.
Turnovers are another problem. It's not so much the number, but the timing of the miscues. In 2007, the team had 24 giveaways, 19 on interceptions. On Sunday, with a 28-7 lead late in the third quarter, Dallas was threatening to put the game away with another score, but Tony Romo threw an ill-advised pass that was intercepted in the end zone, leading to a Cleveland field goal. Again, against a marginal team, the miscue didn't hurt them. However, against a good team, on the road, in the playoffs, a 28-14 lead is not a comfortable margin heading into the 4th quarter, especially with the momentum shift brought about by that type of turn of events.
This is not the type of play you get from a Super Bowl team. Dallas has to be able to put teams away.
From a personnel standpoint, I still expect the Cowboys to go out and get a veteran receiver who can stretch the field. It's understandable for them to wait until after week one so they don't have to guarantee the player's salary for the whole year. But despite the outstanding play of their offensive line, who kept Romo clean while playing in pass pro with just the five up front for most of the game, the Cowboys cannot expect to compete with their lack of depth at WR and at TE. The Cleveland secondary has major issues, and they start with CB Brandon McDonald, who drew single coverage against Patrick Crayton for most of the afternoon, and his inability to play any effective man coverage forced Romeo Crennel's team to play more zone than they would have liked under the circumstances.
Crayton responded as he should have, with six catches for 82 yards, but he is really more ideally suited to playing in the slot in three-wide sets. Dallas even got to aligning TE Jason Witten outside Crayton on passing downs. That tells you all you really need to know about where Crayton needs to be playing. And frankly, while Witten has the skills and versatility to line up anywhere, he is at his best working the under zones in the middle of the field, using his size-speed combo to create mismatches with the LB's. He will also be needed in pass pro when Dallas eventually plays a team that can actually rush the passer, like say Philly or the Giants. T.O. is a special talent, and will beat his share of double coverage, but he needs more help than this to help him remain effective.
The running game showed some flashes, but now Marion Barber may have torn rib cartilage, and his status is uncertain. While some were impressed with Felix Jones' nearly seven yards per carry, take away his meaningless 22 yard jaunt after the outcome was decided late in the fourth quarter, and another 15-yarder on the same drive by Tashard Choice, and the Pokes averaged just 3.9 yards per carry against a team that ranked 27th against the run a year ago. The rookies played well, but Dallas needs a more consistent effort in the run game if Romo is going to open things up the way they would like in the passing game.
On defense, Phillips' vaunted 3-4 allowed the Browns to rush for more than 5.0 yards per carry, and that was against an injured Jamal Lewis. Depth at linebacker could become an issue as the season rolls on. Zach Thomas is 35 years old and has played 16 games in a season just three times in his 13-year career. Sunday's game was just his 7th since 2006. The league has played 33 in that time folks. Fellow ILB Bradie James did not make a tackle! This is Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland Browns inside power run game. They ran right at the heart of your defense Dallas, and your starting ILB didn't make a single tackle. That may have something to do with the play of NT Jay Ratliff, who at just 300 pounds, doesn't possess the strength and bulk to two-gap all that effectively. Again I ask you, what are they going to do against the Giants? Five yards a pop to Jamal Lewis? Could someone please wipe the drool off Brandon Jacobs' lip?!!
Like I said, the Cowboys are a good team, one of the better ones in the NFC to be sure. And certainly there is plenty of time to fix the mistakes and move on. But before this team gets to a Super Bowl, or even wins a postseason game, there is still plenty of work to do.
With all due respect to my friend and cohort Zig Fracassi, I'm not sold on this Dallas team being a shoe-in for a trip to Tampa in February, at least not yet. Sure, they won handily on Sunday, on the road, against a team that many are picking to win their division and go to the playoffs. But like so much of what goes on in the NFL, things are not always what they seem.
Let's be honest, this just isn't a very good Browns team the Cowboys played yesterday. QB Derek Anderson missed part of the preseason due to a concussion and still looked to be shaking some rust off in game one. RB Jamal Lewis was a game time decision and was running on a swollen hammy. Braylon Edwards is coming off a foot injury that forced him to miss much of the preseason (and much of the opener based on what I saw). The defense is adjusting to life without Antwan Peek. This really is a team not ready for prime time.
I'm not denouncing the Cowboys. I'm just tempering the enthusiasm for the postseason based on a few observations from Week One.
The major issue, as Zig attested to, is the penalties. The Pokes committed 11 infractions for 82 yards on Sunday, an unacceptable number by any standard. This comes after a 2007 season that saw Dallas rank among the seven most penalized teams in the league. Does that sound like a playoff team to you? And I did a little research. Do you remember the Cowboys last two postseason contests (I know you do Cowboys fans) against Seattle (2006) and the Giants (2007)? The team committed a combined 19 penalties for 158 yards!! Do you want to know why the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game in nine years? I just told you.
In my time with the Jets, Bill Parcells used to talk about penalties, turnovers, and special teams play in terms of yards and scoring opportunities. Add up your yardage, consider the momentum swing and the effect of punting on 4th and 6 instead of going for it on 4th and 1, and that 82 yards lost in penalties by the Cowboys on Sunday could have yielded another ten points. Their average scoring drive on the day was 76 yards. Giving back 82 penalty yards was the difference between their 28 points and the 37 I predicted they should score against this team.
It turns out Dallas didn't need those points in Cleveland. But they will at other points this season. The complete lack of discipline points directly at the coaching staff. Wade Phillips has some very talented athletes at his disposal, but the mistakes, the repeated mistakes, his team makes are a direct result of the way his team practices.
Turnovers are another problem. It's not so much the number, but the timing of the miscues. In 2007, the team had 24 giveaways, 19 on interceptions. On Sunday, with a 28-7 lead late in the third quarter, Dallas was threatening to put the game away with another score, but Tony Romo threw an ill-advised pass that was intercepted in the end zone, leading to a Cleveland field goal. Again, against a marginal team, the miscue didn't hurt them. However, against a good team, on the road, in the playoffs, a 28-14 lead is not a comfortable margin heading into the 4th quarter, especially with the momentum shift brought about by that type of turn of events.
This is not the type of play you get from a Super Bowl team. Dallas has to be able to put teams away.
From a personnel standpoint, I still expect the Cowboys to go out and get a veteran receiver who can stretch the field. It's understandable for them to wait until after week one so they don't have to guarantee the player's salary for the whole year. But despite the outstanding play of their offensive line, who kept Romo clean while playing in pass pro with just the five up front for most of the game, the Cowboys cannot expect to compete with their lack of depth at WR and at TE. The Cleveland secondary has major issues, and they start with CB Brandon McDonald, who drew single coverage against Patrick Crayton for most of the afternoon, and his inability to play any effective man coverage forced Romeo Crennel's team to play more zone than they would have liked under the circumstances.
Crayton responded as he should have, with six catches for 82 yards, but he is really more ideally suited to playing in the slot in three-wide sets. Dallas even got to aligning TE Jason Witten outside Crayton on passing downs. That tells you all you really need to know about where Crayton needs to be playing. And frankly, while Witten has the skills and versatility to line up anywhere, he is at his best working the under zones in the middle of the field, using his size-speed combo to create mismatches with the LB's. He will also be needed in pass pro when Dallas eventually plays a team that can actually rush the passer, like say Philly or the Giants. T.O. is a special talent, and will beat his share of double coverage, but he needs more help than this to help him remain effective.
The running game showed some flashes, but now Marion Barber may have torn rib cartilage, and his status is uncertain. While some were impressed with Felix Jones' nearly seven yards per carry, take away his meaningless 22 yard jaunt after the outcome was decided late in the fourth quarter, and another 15-yarder on the same drive by Tashard Choice, and the Pokes averaged just 3.9 yards per carry against a team that ranked 27th against the run a year ago. The rookies played well, but Dallas needs a more consistent effort in the run game if Romo is going to open things up the way they would like in the passing game.
On defense, Phillips' vaunted 3-4 allowed the Browns to rush for more than 5.0 yards per carry, and that was against an injured Jamal Lewis. Depth at linebacker could become an issue as the season rolls on. Zach Thomas is 35 years old and has played 16 games in a season just three times in his 13-year career. Sunday's game was just his 7th since 2006. The league has played 33 in that time folks. Fellow ILB Bradie James did not make a tackle! This is Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland Browns inside power run game. They ran right at the heart of your defense Dallas, and your starting ILB didn't make a single tackle. That may have something to do with the play of NT Jay Ratliff, who at just 300 pounds, doesn't possess the strength and bulk to two-gap all that effectively. Again I ask you, what are they going to do against the Giants? Five yards a pop to Jamal Lewis? Could someone please wipe the drool off Brandon Jacobs' lip?!!
Like I said, the Cowboys are a good team, one of the better ones in the NFC to be sure. And certainly there is plenty of time to fix the mistakes and move on. But before this team gets to a Super Bowl, or even wins a postseason game, there is still plenty of work to do.
posted by The Gryphon at 6:58 PM
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