Friday, October 24, 2008

Tampa Bay at Dallas Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26

By Jean-Jacques Taylor & Roy Cummings
For Sporting News

Some folks watch NASCAR for the wrecks. Some folks will watch the Cowboys on Sunday to see if this is the week they'll implode after losing three of four and getting a tongue-lashing from their owner, general manager and part-time head coach.

The Cowboys are a shell of the swaggering bunch that left training camp in Oxnard, Calif., a couple of months ago. This team has been beset by injuries -- Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Kyle Kosier and Terence Newman all missed the last game -- but this team still should be talented enough to win.

Perhaps, every so-called NFL expert overrated this team. The Cowboys look lost on offense, defense and special teams. Right now, they have no identity.

That's bad because they're entering the meaty part of their schedule with their next three games against Tampa Bay, the New York Giants and after a bye, Washington. For the first time since Jerry Jones hired Wade Phillips, he has had to answer questions about whether he still has confidence in Phillips and whether the loss to the Rams could be the harbinger for a coaching change.

Somehow, the quarterback controversy in Tampa Bay, where Jon Gruden has loyalty to no one except the starter on game day, doesn't seem that big of a deal. These days, Gruden is starting Jeff Garcia, mainly because Brian Griese is hurt. Gruden has the team playing pretty well on offense, and the defense is always going to be tough as long as longtime coordinator Monte Kiffin is running it.

The Cowboys, who have already lost three conference games, have lost consecutive games for the first time since 2006. They really can't afford another loss to an NFC team, especially at home, considering they still have road games at the Giants, Redskins, Eagles and Steelers.

Buccaneers Keys For Success
1. Soften up the secondary. The Bucs have done a good job the past two weeks of loosening up opposing secondaries with deep throws early. It will probably serve them well to do the same thing against the Cowboys' banged-up secondary. The Bucs have adequate deep threats in wide receiver Antonio Bryant and tight end Jerramy Stevens, and they'll have a legitimate deep threat if wideout Joey Galloway can make it back into the lineup. By throwing a few deep routes early, the Bucs will create some room underneath for their short passing game, which should allow them to move the ball consistently.
2. Pressure the passer. No matter who starts at quarterback for the Cowboys, the Bucs have to get to him. The Bucs pass rushers have not recorded a sack in any of their last three games, and that has the potential to be a real problem. Tampa Bay's defense is predicated on getting pressure from the front four. Fail to do that, and an experienced quarterback such as Brad Johnson or a real good one such as Tony Romo can pick them apart. The Bucs have a lot of talent in their secondary, but it's not good enough to overcome the problems that can arise if a quarterback has all the time he needs to find open targets.

3. Come out running. The Bucs like to move the ball through the air with short passes, but they'd be better off running against the Cowboys. Running the ball will not only help neutralize a potentially devastating Cowboys pass rush, it will also reduce the potential for turnovers and will work to take the crowd out of the game. The Cowboys are going to be juiced to do something special this week. By hammering away at them and leaning on their greatest offensive strength, the Bucs can control the ball and the pace of the game. That will make it harder for the Cowboys to bounce back with big defensive plays.

Cowboys Keys For Success
1. Don't get blown out early. Brad Johnson is not the kind of quarterback who can bring the Cowboys from behind. The more he's forced to throw the ball, the more his flaws are exposed. He's at his best managing the game, making good decisions and handing the ball off. The Cowboys fell behind 21-7 in the first quarter and 31-7 in the third quarter against the Rams, forcing Johnson to throw 34 passes. If he throws more than 25 passes, Dallas will lose.
2. Run the ball against Tampa's cover 2. Tampa Bay's defense is predicated on not giving up the big play, which is why they play their safeties deep. The Cowboys, who have struggled to run the ball consistently, must get Marion Barber close to 100 yards to have any chance at beating the Bucs. Tampa Bay tries to stop the run with seven defenders, enabling their safeties to play off the line. The Cowboys, who have one of the NFL's biggest offensive lines, don't need to do anything fancy. They need to line up and blow the much smaller Bucs off the line of scrimmage since they won't be dealing with an eighth defender in the box a lot of the time.

3. Block the corner blitz. Few teams love the corner blitz from the slot more than the Bucs. It's a staple of their defense, and if the Cowboys don't block it, Ronde Barber will create havoc. It's imperative that Brad Johnson, a 17-year veteran, recognizes when it's coming and attack the area vacated by Barber. That's not as easy as it sounds because Barber times his blitzes so well.

The Bottom Line
In the NFL, watch out for the desperate team. The "desperate team" characterization seems to fit the Cowboys this week because their season may be slipping away, their coach is under significant scrutiny, their owner is mad and they've been embarrassed each of the past two weeks. If this doesn't bring out their best effort of the season, despite their litany of injuries, then they have nothing left to give. This game is not about X's and O's for Dallas -- it's about passion and urgency.
Scoring prediction: Buccaneers 13 - Cowboys 14