Inside the Numbers: Terrell Owens Myths
by Blair Green
The Sports Keg
When reports surfaced earlier this week suggesting that the Cowboys may cut ties with polarizing receiver, Terrell Owens, Dallas sports conversations heated up. Just like the locker-room, fans are split: those for T.O. and those against T.O.
While both arguments hold some water, they both generally focus on the divisiveness of Owens along the lines of:
Against - "He has a history of destroying organizations..."
For - "T.O. has changed...don't judge him on his past."
Just for a second, let's ignore the fact that Owens has more baggage than Del Griffin in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Let's simply focus our attention on T.O.'s on-field production.
Fans like K.B. the Cowboy Homer, a frequent caller on the Ben and Skin show, continue to promote that Owens remains an elite receiver. K.B. has actually perpetuated several T.O. "myths" that need to be debunked:
Myth #1: Owens' year-end stats prove that he is a top-flight receiver.
Let's take a look:
69 catches (22nd in the NFL)
1052 yards (12th...)
65 yards/game (14th...)
15 yards/catch (15th...)
4.2 yards after catch (48th...)
10 Touchdowns (6th...)
Pretty solid numbers and the stats suggest that he might be the 15th-20th best receiver in football. Unfortunately for 'sit-ups-in-my-driveway,' simply looking at year-end numbers doesn't tell the whole story.
Owens had zero 100-yard games through the first 10 games of the season. The "elite" receiver did not even broach the 90-yard mark during that period. Throughout the season, T.O. struggled as each Cowboy opponent pressed him at the line of scrimmage. When did that change? In week 11, when the San Francisco 49ers decided that they were going to play a soft cover-2. Their conservative game-plan allowed Dallas receivers to gain a free release off of the line of scrimmage and provided Owens with space to work.
In that game, Owens caught 7 passes for 213 yards. This was one of two 100-yard receiving games for T.O. during 2008. One of two. In other words, this game was a fluke. The 49ers were the ONLY team that chose not to press Owens at the line of scrimmage. T.O. took advantage. While it was fun to watch, that was not the T.O. that we saw all year. It was the exception...the deviation from the norm...the oddity.
Let's look at Owens' numbers if you remove the 49er-anomaly. For statistical balance, I also excluded his worst statistical performance (2 catches, 17 yards at Green Bay). In other words, throw out his best, throw out his worst and let's see what we get:
14 games
60 catches
822 yards
59 yards/game (27th in the NFL)
13.7 yards/catch (31st...)
9 Touchdowns
So, in 14 of the 16 games, T.O. amassed a very average 57 yards/game. He averaged 13.7 yards/catch. Mediocrity at its best. Which statistics do you believe reflect the "real" Owens? The one game in which the defense backed off? Or the other 15 games in which Owens looked extremely ordinary?
Myth #1...Busted.
Myth #2: As a big-play guy, T.O. consistently threatens opponents with his ability to "break out."
The explosive big-play threat, Owens, totaled six 100-yard games in 2007. In 2008, he produced two. In other words, in 14 games this year, T.O. did not eclipse the century mark in receiving yards. Here is brief list of guys that posted more 100-yard games than Owens:
Andre Johnson (8), Steve Smith (8), Larry Fitzgerald (7), Roddy White (7), Calvin Johnson (5), Greg Jennings (5), Randy Moss (4), Reggie Wayne (4)
I know what you are thinking: 'those are all top-level receivers. There aren't many people that can replicate what guys like Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson bring to the table.' While you are correct, some continue to claim that Owens is an elite receiver...so I thought it might be interesting to compare him to actual top-flight guys.
But then I decided to lower my standards a bit - Owens is 35 - so I created this list of players that also had more 100-yard games during 2008:
Wes Welker (4), Lance Moore (3), Anquan Boldin (3), Brandon Marshall (3), Steve Breaston (3), Eddie Royal (3), Marques Colston (3)
Again, I know what you are thinking: 'OK, but those guys all play in pass-happy systems. Of course guys like Welker and Marshall will amass extensive yardage.'
- So I created this list of guys that play with unproven quarterbacks and/or in a normal offensive-system, and included their number of 100-yard games:
Antonio Bryant (6), Lee Evans (4), Bernard Berrian (4), Hines Ward (4), Vincent Jackson (3), Santana Moss (3), Braylon Edwards (3), Dwayne Bowe (2), Desmond Mason (2), Isaac Bruce (2), Donald Driver (2), Justin Cage (2), Matt Jones (2), Desean Jackson (2), TJ Houshmandzadeh (2), Mark Clayton (2) and Dennis Northcutt (2)
This seriously made me laugh out loud. T.O. complains about Romo, the 8th-highest rated quarterback in the NFL, and the guys listed above are matching Owens' production with quarterbacks like: Jeff Garcia, Gus Frerotte, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Tyler Thigpen, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Garrard.
If only T.O. could play with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he would be great again! Sorry T.O., it's just not that hard to find guys that can produce a couple 100-yard games each season. They are all over the place.
Myth #2...Busted.
Myth #3: People continue to proclaim that Owens "hasn't lost a step" and can "still make plays after the catch."
Facts remain the only item that contradicts this claim. Owens averaged 4.2 yards after-the-catch in 2008. That ranked 48th in the NFL. He doesn't make guys miss. He doesn't "run after the catch." Most of the time, T.O. makes a catch and runs out of bounds or does his best "Bambi" impression. 47 other receivers averaged more yards after-the-catch last year than T.O. I'm not sure that I can even name 47 NFL receivers.
Myth #3...Busted.
It all boils down to this: T.O. had one great game in 2008, a game in which the defense decided to play a soft cover-2. In the other 15 games, Owens was extremely ordinary. Sorry, but "elite" receivers don't produce two 100-yard games. "Elite" receivers don't average 4 yards after-the-catch. "Elite" receivers don't lead the league in drops. At this point in his career, T.O. is much closer to Isaac Bruce and Desmond Mason than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson... but don't expect K.B. the Cowboy Homer to agree.
The Sports Keg
When reports surfaced earlier this week suggesting that the Cowboys may cut ties with polarizing receiver, Terrell Owens, Dallas sports conversations heated up. Just like the locker-room, fans are split: those for T.O. and those against T.O.
While both arguments hold some water, they both generally focus on the divisiveness of Owens along the lines of:
Against - "He has a history of destroying organizations..."
For - "T.O. has changed...don't judge him on his past."
Just for a second, let's ignore the fact that Owens has more baggage than Del Griffin in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Let's simply focus our attention on T.O.'s on-field production.
Fans like K.B. the Cowboy Homer, a frequent caller on the Ben and Skin show, continue to promote that Owens remains an elite receiver. K.B. has actually perpetuated several T.O. "myths" that need to be debunked:
Myth #1: Owens' year-end stats prove that he is a top-flight receiver.
Let's take a look:
69 catches (22nd in the NFL)
1052 yards (12th...)
65 yards/game (14th...)
15 yards/catch (15th...)
4.2 yards after catch (48th...)
10 Touchdowns (6th...)
Pretty solid numbers and the stats suggest that he might be the 15th-20th best receiver in football. Unfortunately for 'sit-ups-in-my-driveway,' simply looking at year-end numbers doesn't tell the whole story.
Owens had zero 100-yard games through the first 10 games of the season. The "elite" receiver did not even broach the 90-yard mark during that period. Throughout the season, T.O. struggled as each Cowboy opponent pressed him at the line of scrimmage. When did that change? In week 11, when the San Francisco 49ers decided that they were going to play a soft cover-2. Their conservative game-plan allowed Dallas receivers to gain a free release off of the line of scrimmage and provided Owens with space to work.
In that game, Owens caught 7 passes for 213 yards. This was one of two 100-yard receiving games for T.O. during 2008. One of two. In other words, this game was a fluke. The 49ers were the ONLY team that chose not to press Owens at the line of scrimmage. T.O. took advantage. While it was fun to watch, that was not the T.O. that we saw all year. It was the exception...the deviation from the norm...the oddity.
Let's look at Owens' numbers if you remove the 49er-anomaly. For statistical balance, I also excluded his worst statistical performance (2 catches, 17 yards at Green Bay). In other words, throw out his best, throw out his worst and let's see what we get:
14 games
60 catches
822 yards
59 yards/game (27th in the NFL)
13.7 yards/catch (31st...)
9 Touchdowns
So, in 14 of the 16 games, T.O. amassed a very average 57 yards/game. He averaged 13.7 yards/catch. Mediocrity at its best. Which statistics do you believe reflect the "real" Owens? The one game in which the defense backed off? Or the other 15 games in which Owens looked extremely ordinary?
Myth #1...Busted.
Myth #2: As a big-play guy, T.O. consistently threatens opponents with his ability to "break out."
The explosive big-play threat, Owens, totaled six 100-yard games in 2007. In 2008, he produced two. In other words, in 14 games this year, T.O. did not eclipse the century mark in receiving yards. Here is brief list of guys that posted more 100-yard games than Owens:
Andre Johnson (8), Steve Smith (8), Larry Fitzgerald (7), Roddy White (7), Calvin Johnson (5), Greg Jennings (5), Randy Moss (4), Reggie Wayne (4)
I know what you are thinking: 'those are all top-level receivers. There aren't many people that can replicate what guys like Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson bring to the table.' While you are correct, some continue to claim that Owens is an elite receiver...so I thought it might be interesting to compare him to actual top-flight guys.
But then I decided to lower my standards a bit - Owens is 35 - so I created this list of players that also had more 100-yard games during 2008:
Wes Welker (4), Lance Moore (3), Anquan Boldin (3), Brandon Marshall (3), Steve Breaston (3), Eddie Royal (3), Marques Colston (3)
Again, I know what you are thinking: 'OK, but those guys all play in pass-happy systems. Of course guys like Welker and Marshall will amass extensive yardage.'
- So I created this list of guys that play with unproven quarterbacks and/or in a normal offensive-system, and included their number of 100-yard games:
Antonio Bryant (6), Lee Evans (4), Bernard Berrian (4), Hines Ward (4), Vincent Jackson (3), Santana Moss (3), Braylon Edwards (3), Dwayne Bowe (2), Desmond Mason (2), Isaac Bruce (2), Donald Driver (2), Justin Cage (2), Matt Jones (2), Desean Jackson (2), TJ Houshmandzadeh (2), Mark Clayton (2) and Dennis Northcutt (2)
This seriously made me laugh out loud. T.O. complains about Romo, the 8th-highest rated quarterback in the NFL, and the guys listed above are matching Owens' production with quarterbacks like: Jeff Garcia, Gus Frerotte, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Tyler Thigpen, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Garrard.
If only T.O. could play with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he would be great again! Sorry T.O., it's just not that hard to find guys that can produce a couple 100-yard games each season. They are all over the place.
Myth #2...Busted.
Myth #3: People continue to proclaim that Owens "hasn't lost a step" and can "still make plays after the catch."
Facts remain the only item that contradicts this claim. Owens averaged 4.2 yards after-the-catch in 2008. That ranked 48th in the NFL. He doesn't make guys miss. He doesn't "run after the catch." Most of the time, T.O. makes a catch and runs out of bounds or does his best "Bambi" impression. 47 other receivers averaged more yards after-the-catch last year than T.O. I'm not sure that I can even name 47 NFL receivers.
Myth #3...Busted.
It all boils down to this: T.O. had one great game in 2008, a game in which the defense decided to play a soft cover-2. In the other 15 games, Owens was extremely ordinary. Sorry, but "elite" receivers don't produce two 100-yard games. "Elite" receivers don't average 4 yards after-the-catch. "Elite" receivers don't lead the league in drops. At this point in his career, T.O. is much closer to Isaac Bruce and Desmond Mason than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson... but don't expect K.B. the Cowboy Homer to agree.
posted by The Gryphon at 8:02 PM
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