Five Downs With Football Outsiders: Can the Cowboys count on Terence Newman?
By Tim MacMahon/Blogger
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. As a bonus -- and a way to plug the book, which is now on sale -- here's a pre-training camp edition:
1) You made a compelling case in the book about the drastic difference a healthy Terence Newman makes for the Dallas defense. He'll be 31 by the season opener and has been hobbled the last two years. What are the odds that he can stay healthy this season?
- We're not at the point yet where we can say that a particular player has, say, a 75 percent chance of playing 16 games, but there's reason to believe that Newman should be able to make it through a full season as the Cowboys' starter. It's not like he's Chad Pennington; Newman made it through the first 64 starts of his career without missing a game, and there's every reason to believe that the surgery he during last season cleared up the groin issues he was facing.
If Newman plays like he did after he returned from his groin injury last year, the Cowboys would go from a good pass defense to a great one.
2) The FO metrics confirm the obvious: Roy Williams had a miserable 2008 season. What are realistic expectations for him as the Cowboys' clear-cut No. 1 WR this season?
Our projections for Williams aren't really that impressive -- 67 catches (on 118 attempts), 982 yards, and 9 TD.
That seems like it would be a disappointment on the surface, but it's actually a pretty reasonable expectation when you consider the factors that go into the projection. They include:
- Our expectation that the Cowboys will run the ball more in 2009, thanks to the emergence of Tashard Choice and Felix Jones last year
- Williams' history of injuries -- he's played 16 games in a season only once as a professional
- The nature of his performances -- Cowboys fans with stars in their eyes look at Williams' 82-catch, 1310-yard performance in 2006, but that was Williams' only healthy season as a pro, and it came in Mike Martz's pass-happy offensive scheme. Williams was thrown 151 passes that year, far more than he received in any other season. Expecting him to get 151 attempts this year seems unlikely.
If we take Williams' career totals and then scale them to a 16-game season, he's averaged 64 catches, 933 yards, and 7 TD per season as a pro. That appears to be his level of performance, and the hopes that he'll take a huge step forward rest are just those -- hopes.
3) You refer to Igor Olshansky as "a modest upgrade on Chris Canty at a much cheaper price," but Canty was better in almost every FO metric last season. What makes you think that Olshansky is the better player?
Our defensive metrics are dependent upon context, though, and Canty benefited from having DeMarcus Ware behind him. Olshansky's looked better in the past when Shawne Merriman was on the field. I'm not expecting Olshansky to be a revelation or the team's player of the year or anything, just a solid player at a good price.
4) Is it premature to anoint Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice as one of the NFL's elite running back committees? And how would you recommend the Cowboys use their running back trio?
I have pretty heretical views on running backs, to be honest. All the research we do -- things like the historical rate of return on draft picks and salary cap spending, the effects of injuries on a team, and our analysis of replacement-level -- indicates that running backs are an incredibly overvalued species. Outside of elite guys, most running backs appear to be pretty fungible. Sure, I'd rather have Brandon Jacobs inside the tackles and Felix Jones outside of them, but if I got to choose, I'd rather have the best offensive line in the league and a league-average back than the other way around.
If we're looking strictly at the talent of a team's running backs, though ... I can't really think of a better trio than Dallas'. Carolina's one-two punch is better, but there's no better grouping 1-3 than what Dallas has.
How I would use them? I'd just make sure they each get rest. We've done research proving that using a back on multiple carries in a row to get into a "rhythm" doesn't work, so while I'm comfortable with Dallas running the ball with multiple carries in a row, I'd like to see them mix it up more. Using Jones and Barber in the same backfield should stretch defenses to their wits' end, creating opportunities for Jason Witten off play-action.
If I was really thinking out of the box, what about an option with Isaiah Stanback at QB, Barber as the upback, and Jones as the halfback?
5) Gerald Sensabaugh replaces Roy Williams/Pat Watkins/Keith Davis. Mike Jenkins and/or Orlando Scandrick replace Anthony Henry. How much better will the Cowboys' secondary be?
Once Terence Newman returned to health last year, the Cowboys had the second-best pass defense in the NFL. That was with essentially the same personnel as they'll line up this year, as Henry was a relative non-factor, Adam Jones had already spiralled out of the starting lineup, and Sensabaugh should be an upgrade on the flotsam that was lined up at safety next to Ken Hamlin.
It all depends on the pass rush, to be honest. Dallas had the best pass rush in the league last year by a fair amount -- our Adjusted Sack Rate metric (which adjusts for quality of offense as well as the number of pass attempts against) had them with sacks on 9.9% of dropbacks, beating out second-place Minnesota, who were at 9%. That's probably an unsustainably-high figure -- teams around that level in the past have fallen back in the subsequent year -- so even if the secondary actually performs at a higher level, even a minor decrease in the pass rush could negate the improved performance.
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. As a bonus -- and a way to plug the book, which is now on sale -- here's a pre-training camp edition:
1) You made a compelling case in the book about the drastic difference a healthy Terence Newman makes for the Dallas defense. He'll be 31 by the season opener and has been hobbled the last two years. What are the odds that he can stay healthy this season?
- We're not at the point yet where we can say that a particular player has, say, a 75 percent chance of playing 16 games, but there's reason to believe that Newman should be able to make it through a full season as the Cowboys' starter. It's not like he's Chad Pennington; Newman made it through the first 64 starts of his career without missing a game, and there's every reason to believe that the surgery he during last season cleared up the groin issues he was facing.
If Newman plays like he did after he returned from his groin injury last year, the Cowboys would go from a good pass defense to a great one.
2) The FO metrics confirm the obvious: Roy Williams had a miserable 2008 season. What are realistic expectations for him as the Cowboys' clear-cut No. 1 WR this season?
Our projections for Williams aren't really that impressive -- 67 catches (on 118 attempts), 982 yards, and 9 TD.
That seems like it would be a disappointment on the surface, but it's actually a pretty reasonable expectation when you consider the factors that go into the projection. They include:
- Our expectation that the Cowboys will run the ball more in 2009, thanks to the emergence of Tashard Choice and Felix Jones last year
- Williams' history of injuries -- he's played 16 games in a season only once as a professional
- The nature of his performances -- Cowboys fans with stars in their eyes look at Williams' 82-catch, 1310-yard performance in 2006, but that was Williams' only healthy season as a pro, and it came in Mike Martz's pass-happy offensive scheme. Williams was thrown 151 passes that year, far more than he received in any other season. Expecting him to get 151 attempts this year seems unlikely.
If we take Williams' career totals and then scale them to a 16-game season, he's averaged 64 catches, 933 yards, and 7 TD per season as a pro. That appears to be his level of performance, and the hopes that he'll take a huge step forward rest are just those -- hopes.
3) You refer to Igor Olshansky as "a modest upgrade on Chris Canty at a much cheaper price," but Canty was better in almost every FO metric last season. What makes you think that Olshansky is the better player?
Our defensive metrics are dependent upon context, though, and Canty benefited from having DeMarcus Ware behind him. Olshansky's looked better in the past when Shawne Merriman was on the field. I'm not expecting Olshansky to be a revelation or the team's player of the year or anything, just a solid player at a good price.
4) Is it premature to anoint Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice as one of the NFL's elite running back committees? And how would you recommend the Cowboys use their running back trio?
I have pretty heretical views on running backs, to be honest. All the research we do -- things like the historical rate of return on draft picks and salary cap spending, the effects of injuries on a team, and our analysis of replacement-level -- indicates that running backs are an incredibly overvalued species. Outside of elite guys, most running backs appear to be pretty fungible. Sure, I'd rather have Brandon Jacobs inside the tackles and Felix Jones outside of them, but if I got to choose, I'd rather have the best offensive line in the league and a league-average back than the other way around.
If we're looking strictly at the talent of a team's running backs, though ... I can't really think of a better trio than Dallas'. Carolina's one-two punch is better, but there's no better grouping 1-3 than what Dallas has.
How I would use them? I'd just make sure they each get rest. We've done research proving that using a back on multiple carries in a row to get into a "rhythm" doesn't work, so while I'm comfortable with Dallas running the ball with multiple carries in a row, I'd like to see them mix it up more. Using Jones and Barber in the same backfield should stretch defenses to their wits' end, creating opportunities for Jason Witten off play-action.
If I was really thinking out of the box, what about an option with Isaiah Stanback at QB, Barber as the upback, and Jones as the halfback?
5) Gerald Sensabaugh replaces Roy Williams/Pat Watkins/Keith Davis. Mike Jenkins and/or Orlando Scandrick replace Anthony Henry. How much better will the Cowboys' secondary be?
Once Terence Newman returned to health last year, the Cowboys had the second-best pass defense in the NFL. That was with essentially the same personnel as they'll line up this year, as Henry was a relative non-factor, Adam Jones had already spiralled out of the starting lineup, and Sensabaugh should be an upgrade on the flotsam that was lined up at safety next to Ken Hamlin.
It all depends on the pass rush, to be honest. Dallas had the best pass rush in the league last year by a fair amount -- our Adjusted Sack Rate metric (which adjusts for quality of offense as well as the number of pass attempts against) had them with sacks on 9.9% of dropbacks, beating out second-place Minnesota, who were at 9%. That's probably an unsustainably-high figure -- teams around that level in the past have fallen back in the subsequent year -- so even if the secondary actually performs at a higher level, even a minor decrease in the pass rush could negate the improved performance.
posted by The Gryphon at 4:33 PM
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