Thursday, September 21, 2006

Aikman Efficiency Ratings: Week 2

By Troy Aikman
Special to NFL.com

NOTE: In 2004, Pro Football Hall of Famer Troy Aikman devised a formula for measuring the efficiency of NFL offensive and defensive units. While the league ranks these units based on total yards per game, Aikman wanted to create a more comprehensive ranking similar to the QB passer rating. Each week during the season, Aikman will post his updated ratings on NFL.com. (See below for an overview of the factors that contribute to the Aikman Efficiency Rating.)

(Sept. 19, 2006) -- Here are the Aikman Efficiency Ratings after Week 2:

Aikman Offensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Team AER
1 2 Colts 100.7
2 4 Chargers 100.3
3 3 Giants 90.5
4 1 Eagles 87.7
5 9 Bengals 86.3
6 16 Cardinals 83.0
7 12 Patriots 82.1
8 7 Bears 81.3
9 10 Saints 76.8
10 13 Vikings 76.7
11 5 Falcons 76.3
12 23 Texans 75.6
13 8 Jets 75.1
14 24 Ravens 74.7
15 11 Cowboys 74.1
16 6 49ers 73.0
17 14 Jaguars 71.9
18 17 Seahawks 71.3
19 31 Bills 68.5
20 21 Dolphins 67.3
21 18 Rams 66.6
22 29 Browns 66.2
23 15 Packers 64.6
24 25 Redskins 63.8
25 19 Broncos 63.0
26 30 Panthers 62.1
27 27 Steelers 61.7
28 22 Titans 61.5
29 20 Chiefs 58.6
30 26 Lions 54.2
31 28 Buccaneers 36.1
32 32 Raiders 27.1
NFL Average 72.1

Aikman Defensive Efficiency Ratings
Aikman NFL Team AER
1 1 Ravens 128.2
2 3 Jaguars 105.4
3 10T Falcons 105.2
4 2 Chargers 104.5
5 5 Bears 101.1
6 4 Seahawks 91.9
7 15 Broncos 91.5
8 17 Rams 87.0
9 19 Steelers 83.9
10 20 Eagles 82.9
11 14 Bengals 82.2
12 9 Chiefs 81.8
13 8 Cowboys 81.6
14 13 Patriots 80.3
15 12 Saints 79.7
16 16 Bills 79.4
17 7 Vikings 79.4
18 27 Packers 79.1
19 22 Buccaneers 75.6
20 6 Dolphins 75.3
21 24 Jets 72.2
22 28 Panthers 71.7
23 26 Cardinals 71.7
24 10T Raiders 70.3
25 21 Lions 68.8
26 30 Browns 64.5
27 18 49ers 64.5
28 29 Giants 62.7
29 23 Redskins 62.0
30 31 Titans 57.7
31 25 Colts 54.4
32 32 Texans 47.2
NFL Average 77.9

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Formula
The Aikman Efficiency Ratings measure offensive and defensive performance using a combination of seven key statistics identified by Troy, and then measured against league norms (and extremes) established over the last 10 years. An offense or defense performing exactly at league norms in all categories will achieve a score of 75. The better the offense or defense, the higher the score on either scale.

It will take a truly exceptional unit to score more than 90 during an entire season on either the offensive or defensive scale. Higher scores are possible in individual games.

In 2005, AER scores ranged on offense from 92.6 (Seattle) to 60.9 (San Francisco) and on defense from 89.3 (Chicago) to 61.1 (Houston). The seven categories measured are:

Adjusted Points (20%) -- Total Points Scored or Allowed minus Points on Returns and Safeties
Turnovers (20%)
Red Zone Efficiency (20%) -- Measured by Percent of Possible Points (see below)
Yards Per Play -- divided into Yards Per Rush (10% of total) and Yards Per Pass Play (10% of total). Yards Per Pass Play includes yards on plays involving sacks.
First Down Achievement -- divided into Total First Downs (10% of total) and 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (10% of total)
Percentage of Possible Points in the Red Zone is figured by taking the number of Red Zone Chances times 7, then dividing it by the number of Points Actually Scored (defined as TDs times 7 plus FGs times 3).