Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Football Outsiders: Dallas Cowboys possible offseason moves

Four Downs: NFC East
2/12/2007

by Ryan Wilson

Heading into the 2006 season, the NFC East was arguably the most complete division in the conference. Giants quarterback Eli Manning was poised for a breakout season; head coach Bill Parcells was entering year four in Dallas; in Philadelphia, Donovan McNabb was healthy and sans T.O.; and Washington, with its usual assortment of high-priced off-season free-agent additions, was readying for a playoff run. A strange thing happened on the way to Miami: Tom Coughlin lost control of his team, Dallas’ defense lost its way, McNabb was lost to injury, and the Redskins lost 11 games, in part, because of poor personnel decisions last off-season.

Although three NFC East teams qualified for the postseason, the Giants and Cowboys faltered down the stretch, while the Eagles exceeded expectations by making it to the NFC Divisional game without their starting quarterback.

Dallas Cowboys
Head coach Bill Parcells ended each of his four seasons in Dallas with a different quarterback: Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and finally Tony Romo. Despite the heartbreaking wild-card loss to the Seahawks because of a botched Romo hold on a field-goal attempt, the fourth-year undrafted quarterback offers the Cowboys stability at the position for the first time since Troy Aikman retired in 2000.

Even with the all the quarterback uncertainty during his Dallas tenure, Parcells managed a 34-30 record — including two playoff appearances — but opted to retire last month, telling the Dallas Morning News, “I just think it’s time. Physically I could do it again, but mentally, I think that’s the difference.”

Last week, owner Jerry Jones named Chargers defensive coordinator Wade Phillips the new Cowboys head coach, the seventh in team history. Jones hired Dolphins quarterbacks coach Jason Garrett in an undecided role, but he will serve as the Cowboys offensive coordinator. Dallas’ defense, as currently constituted, is best suited for the 3-4, the same scheme Phillips had great success with in San Diego. Though some questioned the Phillips hire, in four full seasons as a head coach in Buffalo and Denver, he compiled a 45-35 record, including three playoff appearances.

Who Could Leave?
Other than Parcells, who is already out the door — likely plotting his return to the New York Jets in some front-office capacity, — wide receiver Terrell Owens is the biggest question mark. Jones told the Fort Worth Star Telegram that Owens will return for 2007, even though he sported a 56 percent catch rate and regularly dropped passes, is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, and was a divisive locker room presence.

The offensive line could have some turnover. Right tackle Marc Colombo is a free agent. Center Andre Gurode is also a free agent, but he should be re-signed. Gurode is best known for being on the receiving end of an Albert Haynesworth stomp to the face in Week 4, but he also made the Pro Bowl. Guard Marco Rivera and left tackle Flozell Adams are still under contract. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys ranked 23rd in adjusted sack rate. However, the Cowboys would be 29th if we only included games started by Bledsoe, and 15th if we only included games started by Romo.

Mike Vanderjagt, possibly the most overpaid player in the NFL last season, was released in November and replaced by Martin Gramatica, who is also a free agent.

Whom Should They Sign?
(Projected Cap Space: $21.5 million)
Depending on what Phillips and Garrett decide, the offensive line could see a major overhaul or just a few tweaks. If the Cowboys choose to upgrade through free agency, guard Eric Steinbach and tackle Leonard Davis are the top available free agents in a thin class, but neither will come cheaply.

The kicking game is also an issue. The Cowboys could re-sign Gramatica, who converted 7-of-9 field goals last season, including 3-of-5 from beyond 40 yards. Or, if the team is willing to lay down some cash, the Seahawks’ Josh Brown is available. After spotting Vanderjagt a $2.5 million signing bonus last off-season, Dallas may be hesitant to go down that road again.

Adding depth in the secondary isn’t a top priority but should be addressed, if not in free agency then via the draft. Roy Williams struggles in coverage, and Pat Watkins had an uneven rookie season. Tony Parrish was signed in December but is an unrestricted free agent.