Thursday, October 04, 2007

Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

Peck's Preview
http://www.wivb.com

“You’re the only game” “The whole league is watching” “We want to prove we’re not a punching bag.” The first two quotes reflect the Bills excitement about playing on Monday Night Football. The last quote, from safety Donte Whitner, may reflect their attitude about facing the undefeated Cowboys in front of the nation. There was a noticeable excitement level in the team’s locker room this week. Every player talked about how “jacked-up” they are to play on Monday Night Football. Remember, the Bills haven’t had a Monday night game since 2000. Only 15 current Bills have ever played in the NFL’s spotlight game. But this big chance may elevate the play of a team that’s favored to lose by 10 points. This could be the reason why the Bills play about their heads. But it won’t be easy, and it’ll take more than a good attitude to beat one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams. Bills Offense vs. Cowboys Defense

Trent Edwards will make his 2nd start, as J.P. Losman continues to heal from a knee injury. Edwards was outstanding against the Jets, but can he do it again? Can he complete 22-28 passes against the league’s 8th ranked defense? The Jets were 28th, and seemed surprised by Edwards poise and accuracy. Dallas also has a better read on what the rookie does well, and what will confuse him. Look for Wade Phillips’ defense to blitz more, and bring more pressure off the edge. In their 3-4 defense, outside backers DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis are built to put the heat on the quarterback.

The Bills will likely counter by running more with Marshawn Lynch, and calling more 3-step drops and quick passes for Edwards. The Cowboys will be missing starting cornerback Anthony Henry. Maybe the Bills can exploit replacement Jacques Reeves like they did to Jets rookie Darrelle Revis. Edwards is best at reading defenses, releasing the ball and throwing accurately. That’s how the Bills will move the ball and score points.

Note: Two interesting stats from the Jets game point to Edwards abilities. Bills receivers had 71 yards after the catch because Trent delivered the ball to them in stride. Bills tight ends had 7 combined catches. Buffalo TE’s hadn’t had 7 catches in the last 80 games, dating back to 2002. Bills Defense vs. Cowboys Offense

In Dallas, they’re probably thinking “mismatch.” In Buffalo, its “challenge.” How does the banged-up, 32nd ranked Bills D stop the high-flying #1 ranked Dallas offense? It probably doesn’t. Buffalo will be without safety Jim Leonhard and corner Ashton Youboty. That will prompt a shift to free safety for Whitner, with Bryan Scott playing strong safety. Jabari Greer will start at corner. Anthony Hargrove and Keith Ellison will be back, and that should help a little. But whoever’s out there has to control Tony Romo, limit Terrell Owens and control Jason Witten. Good luck. Romo (who briefly considered signing with the Bills as a college free agent in 2003) is on fire. His ability to move, scramble and improvise will make it very tough on the Buffalo defense. They leave lots of room in the Cover-2 scheme, so expect Romo to tuck it and run through those holes if no one is open. Owens vs. Greer or McGee is a size and talent problem for the Bills. I’m afraid it could be like the New England game. Greer could have perfect coverage and still get beat because Owens will use his size and athletic ability. Watch for Witten to exploit the middle of the defense manned by backups John DiGiorgio and Scott. Special Teams

Despite the loss of personnel off the coverage and blocking teams, the Bills special teams have played well. I’ve said it before. This is the way to overcome a talent gap against a really good team. So, McGee and Roscoe Parrish need to make a return-game impact for the Bills to have any chance to pull the upset. Prediction

I believe the Bills will play over their heads, because they know this is their chance to show-off for the NFL. But in the end, the Cowboys are just too talented and the Bills are just too banged-up. It’ll be close in the first half, the Bills offense will score some points, but the Cowboys will win 31-20. **Join me and Dennis Willams for the News 4 Sports Sunday Night Blitz. We’ll have a full preview of the first Buffalo Monday Nighter in 13 years. It airs Sunday following News 4.