CHFF does Dallas: do 'Boys have a shot at perfection?
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts oil baron
Hey, what about Dallas?
If New England-Indianapolis is the game of the millennium, what does that make New England-Dallas? Why aren’t we talking about the Cowboys going 16-0? They’re outscoring the Patriots, you know.
OK, OK, calm down.
We haven’t forgotten about those high-flying Cowboys. But if you’re asking if we think they have the same chance New England or Indy has at an all-time great season, we’ve got the answer.
Yes. No. Maybe.
Look, if we knew how things would turn out, we’d be richer than Bill Gates’ gardener. But we can at least put history and the present under the pigskin microscope and see what we find.
Why Dallas can go 16-0:
1. The schedule is smooth as a baby's bottom. Not only do the Cowboys play in the still-supbar NFC, but their AFC opponents are from the East, a.k.a. New England and the Three Dwarfs. They do have to face New England, but that game's in Dallas, as is their showdown with Green Bay in Week 13.
2. Big winners sometimes emerge from mediocrity. Dallas was 9-7 in 2006, not exactly the setup you’d expect from an all-time great team. But when the 1998 Vikings (Randy Moss’ rookie season) went 15-1, they were coming off of a 9-7 campaign. The 1985 Bears were 15-1 after a 10-6 season, and so were the 1984 49ers. So it can happen.
3. Great teams have great offenses. When we compiled the top scoring teams of the Super Bowl era, we found the list included some of the best teams in modern NFL history. And as of right now, Dallas (37.8 PPG) would be No. 1 . Of those 27 teams on the list of greatest offenses, 13 lost two or fewer games.
Why Dallas can’t go 16-0:
1. Nobody goes 16-0. It’s a pretty remarkable fact that, since the NFL expanded the schedule to 16 games back in 1978, 879 teams have started the season 0-0 and zero have finished 16-0. That’s a lot of teams, and the list tops 1,000 when you include the 14-game seasons following the Miami's 1972 perfection.
2. Being perfect in the NFC East is no breeze. The Redskings, Giants and Eagles are all part of the NFL’s middle class (they chime in at 13, 14 and 21, respectively, in our most recent Power Rankings). Of this group, only the 2004 Eagles have gone undefeated in the division since the realignment of 2002.
3. They have a brand-new coach. With the exception of the 2002 Buccaneers, all of the great teams in NFL history had coaches who were well-entrenched in the job or the teams had experienced spectacular recent success (George Seifert, Barry Switzer). So, while Wade Phillips has an impressive 52-39 (.571) lifetime record, he’s also been fired twice and never kept a head job for more than three seasons. Is he the man to lead a team to an undefeated season?
4. Weak conferences don't produce top teams. The NFC hasn't produced a 14-win team since 2001, when the Rams went 14-2. Similarly, when the NFC was en fuego from the mid-1980s to the mid-90s, the AFC didn't have any great teams – from 1984 to 1996, when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls, only the 1984 Dolphins went 14-2 in the AFC.
Cold, Hard Football Facts oil baron
Hey, what about Dallas?
If New England-Indianapolis is the game of the millennium, what does that make New England-Dallas? Why aren’t we talking about the Cowboys going 16-0? They’re outscoring the Patriots, you know.
OK, OK, calm down.
We haven’t forgotten about those high-flying Cowboys. But if you’re asking if we think they have the same chance New England or Indy has at an all-time great season, we’ve got the answer.
Yes. No. Maybe.
Look, if we knew how things would turn out, we’d be richer than Bill Gates’ gardener. But we can at least put history and the present under the pigskin microscope and see what we find.
Why Dallas can go 16-0:
1. The schedule is smooth as a baby's bottom. Not only do the Cowboys play in the still-supbar NFC, but their AFC opponents are from the East, a.k.a. New England and the Three Dwarfs. They do have to face New England, but that game's in Dallas, as is their showdown with Green Bay in Week 13.
2. Big winners sometimes emerge from mediocrity. Dallas was 9-7 in 2006, not exactly the setup you’d expect from an all-time great team. But when the 1998 Vikings (Randy Moss’ rookie season) went 15-1, they were coming off of a 9-7 campaign. The 1985 Bears were 15-1 after a 10-6 season, and so were the 1984 49ers. So it can happen.
3. Great teams have great offenses. When we compiled the top scoring teams of the Super Bowl era, we found the list included some of the best teams in modern NFL history. And as of right now, Dallas (37.8 PPG) would be No. 1 . Of those 27 teams on the list of greatest offenses, 13 lost two or fewer games.
Why Dallas can’t go 16-0:
1. Nobody goes 16-0. It’s a pretty remarkable fact that, since the NFL expanded the schedule to 16 games back in 1978, 879 teams have started the season 0-0 and zero have finished 16-0. That’s a lot of teams, and the list tops 1,000 when you include the 14-game seasons following the Miami's 1972 perfection.
2. Being perfect in the NFC East is no breeze. The Redskings, Giants and Eagles are all part of the NFL’s middle class (they chime in at 13, 14 and 21, respectively, in our most recent Power Rankings). Of this group, only the 2004 Eagles have gone undefeated in the division since the realignment of 2002.
3. They have a brand-new coach. With the exception of the 2002 Buccaneers, all of the great teams in NFL history had coaches who were well-entrenched in the job or the teams had experienced spectacular recent success (George Seifert, Barry Switzer). So, while Wade Phillips has an impressive 52-39 (.571) lifetime record, he’s also been fired twice and never kept a head job for more than three seasons. Is he the man to lead a team to an undefeated season?
4. Weak conferences don't produce top teams. The NFC hasn't produced a 14-win team since 2001, when the Rams went 14-2. Similarly, when the NFC was en fuego from the mid-1980s to the mid-90s, the AFC didn't have any great teams – from 1984 to 1996, when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls, only the 1984 Dolphins went 14-2 in the AFC.
posted by The Gryphon at 7:58 PM
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