NATIONAL COLUMNIST: Why Cowboys will crush Lions
December 8, 2007
By Scott Garbarini
Sports Network
The Dallas Cowboys have assured themselves a spot in the NFC's postseason fray. As for the Detroit Lions, their once-promising chances of reaching the playoffs have been fading with each passing week.
The Lions will attempt to reverse their recent fortunes when the badly- slumping club hosts the powerful Cowboys this Sunday at Ford Field in a matchup between teams currently headed in decidedly opposite directions.
Detroit had put itself in good position to earn its first playoff berth since 1999 by posting a strong 6-2 record at the season's midway point, making quarterback Jon Kitna seem like a prophet for his bold preseason prediction of a 10-win campaign. However, the Lions have returned to their customary losing ways since, having dropped four consecutive games heading into this week's showdown.
The low point came last Sunday in Minnesota, where Detroit was routed by the surging Vikings by a 42-10 score. It was the Lions' third double-digit defeat during its present slide.
Adding injury to insult, Detroit star wide receiver Roy Williams suffered a potential season-ending knee sprain during the game. The 2007 Pro Bowl participant was leading the team with 63 catches and 836 receiving yards.
Being without their best offensive player certainly won't help the Lions' hopes for a sudden turnaround. Neither will a tough four-game stretch to close out the regular season that begins with a visit from a strong Dallas squad that stamped itself the favorite to represent the NFC in this year's Super Bowl with a 37-27 home triumph over Green Bay in Week 13.
The victory sewed up a postseason berth for the 11-1 Cowboys, who bring a six- game win streak into the Motor City and now control their own destiny for home-field advantage through the conference playoffs. Dallas can also clinch the NFC East by defeating the Lions or if the second-place New York Giants lose at Philadelphia on Sunday.
If the Cowboys need any further motivation, the team can point to its 39-31 loss to Detroit in the 2006 regular-season finale. Kitna provided some bulletin board material a few days after the game with some unflattering remarks about the Dallas defense on a Seattle radio show.
Following Sunday's contest, the Lions will visit AFC-West leading San Diego and still have to travel to 10-2 Green Bay in Week 17.
SERIES HISTORY
Dallas has a 10-9 lead in its all-time regular season series with Detroit, but was shocked by a 39-31 count at Texas Stadium during Week 17 of the 2006 season. The Lions were 2-13 entering that game. Dallas last beat Detroit in 2005, scoring a 20-7 win at home. The Cowboys were 38-7 winners when they last visited the Motor City in 2003, but dropped a 9-7 decision there in 2002.
In addition to their regular season history, the teams have met twice in the postseason. The Cowboys were 5-0 winners in a 1970 NFC Divisional Playoff, and the Lions won a 38-6 affair in a 1991 NFC Divisional Playoff.
Detroit's Rod Marinelli is 1-0 against the Cowboys in his brief head coaching career. The Cowboys' Wade Phillips will be meeting both the Lions and Marinelli for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Dallas' gaudy record has been built on the strength of a prolific offense that has produced the second-most total yards (390.9 ypg) and points (32.9 ppg) in the NFL this season. The Cowboys also rank third in the league in passing offense (269.5 ypg) and have scored at least 24 points in every 2007 game. Quarterback Tony Romo (3352 passing yards, 33 TD, 14 INT) has produced a 100- plus passer rating in six straight contests and had his third four-touchdown outing in four weeks to key the big win over Green Bay. Terrell Owens (71 receptions, 1249 yards) has been on just as hot a streak, as the entertaining receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in his last six games with a dominating seven-catch, 156-yard effort against the Packers. Owens leads the NFC with 14 touchdown grabs and has scored in seven straight contests. Fellow wideout Patrick Crayton (36 receptions, 7 TD) hauled in two of Romo's scoring strikes last week, while tight end Jason Witten (65 receptions, 6 TD) is on the verge of a fourth consecutive Pro Bowl nod.
The Cowboys can run the ball as well, with its backfield tandem of Marion Barber (796 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 8 total TD) and Julius Jones (521 rushing yards, 2 TD, 18 receptions) combining for over 109 yards per week. The duo works behind a standout offensive line that has provided excellent protection for Romo, who's only been sacked 16 times this year, and consistently opened holes for the league's seventh-rated ground attack (121.4 ypg).
It would be a surprise if Romo and Owens didn't again produce big numbers against a Detroit defense that ranks next-to-last in passing yards allowed (265.6 ypg) and has yielded 24 touchdowns through the air. The Lions have compensated somewhat by forcing 32 turnovers, the second-most in the NFL, but need to get more of a pass rush out of ends Dewayne White (33 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jared DeVries (19 tackles, 5 sacks) in order to slow down Dallas' dangerous offense. An already shaky secondary could have further issues if cornerback Travis Fisher (54 tackles, 2 INT), who is considered questionable to play with a wrist problem, can't go.
The Lions have fared better against the run, where stud tackles Shaun Rogers (26 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Cory Redding (26 tackles) anchor a unit that has allowed a respectable 105.8 rushing yards per game (15th overall). Detroit couldn't stop Adrian Peterson and the Vikings last week, however, as Minnesota rolled up a whopping 216 yards on the ground in its victory. Second- year linebacker Ernie Sims had 11 tackles in the game and tops Detroit with 105 stops on the year.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Kitna (3157 passing yards, 15 TD, 13 INT) still has a number of capable weapons with which to work even without Williams available, but Detroit has been plagued throughout the year by a noticeable imbalance on offense. The Lions have the fewest rushing yards (77.2 ypg) and attempts (234) in the NFL and only tried to run the ball seven times against Minnesota, although that was partly due to the team facing a sizeable deficit for much of the game. Top back Kevin Jones (458 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 6 TD) had only one yard on three carries last Sunday after putting up an impressive 93 on 20 tries against a quality Green Bay defense the previous week.
With Williams out, receivers Shaun McDonald (59 receptions, 4 TD), Mike Furrey (46 receptions, 1 TD) and heralded rookie Calvin Johnson (32 receptions, 4 TD) will all be asked to assume greater roles on Sunday. Furrey had a huge day against the Cowboys last year, catching a career-high 11 passes for 102 yards and a score. Kitna has struggled during Detroit's losing streak, having thrown seven interceptions in the four defeats after being picked off only six times through the first eight games, and there's a concern that the 11-year veteran has worn down some after being sacked an unacceptable 47 times over the course of the year.
Kitna will likely be feeling the heat from a Dallas defense that has produced 33 sacks thus far and battered Brett Favre into an early exit in Week 13. The majority of that total has come from outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware (66 tackles, 10 sacks) and Greg Ellis (23 tackles, 10.5 sacks), who have terrorized enemy quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Ware took down Kitna three times in last year's meeting, while Ellis is coming off a two-sack game versus Green Bay. The Cowboys have been vulnerable at times to strong passing teams but have compiled 18 interceptions (2nd overall) on the year, with cornerbacks Terence Newman (36 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) and Anthony Henry (19 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) and free safety Ken Hamlin (44 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) all having been playmakers in the secondary.
The Cowboys have yet to allow an opposing back to run for 100 yards this season, and that streak figures to continue with the Lions' reluctance to feed Kevin Jones the ball. As a team Dallas is giving up a scant 85.6 rushing yards per game (4th overall) and boasts one of the game's best run-stopping safeties in four-time Pro Bowler Roy Williams (71 tackles, 2 INT). Linebacker Bradie James (72 tackles, 2 sacks), a target of Kitna's comments following last year's meeting with Detroit, has also had a strong year on the inside.
FANTASY FOCUS
Those who have Romo and Owens on their teams don't need a recommendation here to know to start these two fantasy superstars. Witten is a must-play as well, as Detroit's Cover 2 defensive scheme often provides plenty of opportunities for tight ends that can stretch the middle of the field. Barber's also quite worthy of a start this week, especially with a good possibility of the Cowboys building a big lead and using the powerful back to run out the clock.
Judging by Kevin Jones' three-carry effort last week and Dallas' prowess in stopping the run, bench him this week if he's still got a spot on your roster. The injury to Detroit's Roy Williams boosts the fantasy stock of Furrey and McDonald, and both make decent choices this week as No. 2 receivers or flex players. It's a tougher call on Johnson; the rookie's got a world of ability but has been inconsistent. Kitna will be chucking it early and often on Sunday. That gives the mouthy signal-caller a chance to put up good numbers, but also increases the point potential of a Cowboys defense that should have plenty of opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Clearly, Dallas is the superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup, and the only realistic way the Cowboys shouldn't deliver a comfortable victory is if they don't take this game too seriously. With last year's loss to the Lions and Kitna's subsequent comments still fresh in the team's minds, don't expect that to happen. Detroit doesn't have the personnel to prevent another scoring outburst from the Dallas offense, and the Lions either can't or won't run the ball to keep the likes of Romo, Owens, Barber and Witten off the field. As the Patriots proved in mid-October, the only way to beat the Cowboys is to outscore them in a shootout. With Detroit's offense losing some bite with the injury to Roy Williams, that seems like a near- impossible task.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 38, Lions 17
By Scott Garbarini
Sports Network
The Dallas Cowboys have assured themselves a spot in the NFC's postseason fray. As for the Detroit Lions, their once-promising chances of reaching the playoffs have been fading with each passing week.
The Lions will attempt to reverse their recent fortunes when the badly- slumping club hosts the powerful Cowboys this Sunday at Ford Field in a matchup between teams currently headed in decidedly opposite directions.
Detroit had put itself in good position to earn its first playoff berth since 1999 by posting a strong 6-2 record at the season's midway point, making quarterback Jon Kitna seem like a prophet for his bold preseason prediction of a 10-win campaign. However, the Lions have returned to their customary losing ways since, having dropped four consecutive games heading into this week's showdown.
The low point came last Sunday in Minnesota, where Detroit was routed by the surging Vikings by a 42-10 score. It was the Lions' third double-digit defeat during its present slide.
Adding injury to insult, Detroit star wide receiver Roy Williams suffered a potential season-ending knee sprain during the game. The 2007 Pro Bowl participant was leading the team with 63 catches and 836 receiving yards.
Being without their best offensive player certainly won't help the Lions' hopes for a sudden turnaround. Neither will a tough four-game stretch to close out the regular season that begins with a visit from a strong Dallas squad that stamped itself the favorite to represent the NFC in this year's Super Bowl with a 37-27 home triumph over Green Bay in Week 13.
The victory sewed up a postseason berth for the 11-1 Cowboys, who bring a six- game win streak into the Motor City and now control their own destiny for home-field advantage through the conference playoffs. Dallas can also clinch the NFC East by defeating the Lions or if the second-place New York Giants lose at Philadelphia on Sunday.
If the Cowboys need any further motivation, the team can point to its 39-31 loss to Detroit in the 2006 regular-season finale. Kitna provided some bulletin board material a few days after the game with some unflattering remarks about the Dallas defense on a Seattle radio show.
Following Sunday's contest, the Lions will visit AFC-West leading San Diego and still have to travel to 10-2 Green Bay in Week 17.
SERIES HISTORY
Dallas has a 10-9 lead in its all-time regular season series with Detroit, but was shocked by a 39-31 count at Texas Stadium during Week 17 of the 2006 season. The Lions were 2-13 entering that game. Dallas last beat Detroit in 2005, scoring a 20-7 win at home. The Cowboys were 38-7 winners when they last visited the Motor City in 2003, but dropped a 9-7 decision there in 2002.
In addition to their regular season history, the teams have met twice in the postseason. The Cowboys were 5-0 winners in a 1970 NFC Divisional Playoff, and the Lions won a 38-6 affair in a 1991 NFC Divisional Playoff.
Detroit's Rod Marinelli is 1-0 against the Cowboys in his brief head coaching career. The Cowboys' Wade Phillips will be meeting both the Lions and Marinelli for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
Dallas' gaudy record has been built on the strength of a prolific offense that has produced the second-most total yards (390.9 ypg) and points (32.9 ppg) in the NFL this season. The Cowboys also rank third in the league in passing offense (269.5 ypg) and have scored at least 24 points in every 2007 game. Quarterback Tony Romo (3352 passing yards, 33 TD, 14 INT) has produced a 100- plus passer rating in six straight contests and had his third four-touchdown outing in four weeks to key the big win over Green Bay. Terrell Owens (71 receptions, 1249 yards) has been on just as hot a streak, as the entertaining receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in his last six games with a dominating seven-catch, 156-yard effort against the Packers. Owens leads the NFC with 14 touchdown grabs and has scored in seven straight contests. Fellow wideout Patrick Crayton (36 receptions, 7 TD) hauled in two of Romo's scoring strikes last week, while tight end Jason Witten (65 receptions, 6 TD) is on the verge of a fourth consecutive Pro Bowl nod.
The Cowboys can run the ball as well, with its backfield tandem of Marion Barber (796 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 8 total TD) and Julius Jones (521 rushing yards, 2 TD, 18 receptions) combining for over 109 yards per week. The duo works behind a standout offensive line that has provided excellent protection for Romo, who's only been sacked 16 times this year, and consistently opened holes for the league's seventh-rated ground attack (121.4 ypg).
It would be a surprise if Romo and Owens didn't again produce big numbers against a Detroit defense that ranks next-to-last in passing yards allowed (265.6 ypg) and has yielded 24 touchdowns through the air. The Lions have compensated somewhat by forcing 32 turnovers, the second-most in the NFL, but need to get more of a pass rush out of ends Dewayne White (33 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jared DeVries (19 tackles, 5 sacks) in order to slow down Dallas' dangerous offense. An already shaky secondary could have further issues if cornerback Travis Fisher (54 tackles, 2 INT), who is considered questionable to play with a wrist problem, can't go.
The Lions have fared better against the run, where stud tackles Shaun Rogers (26 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Cory Redding (26 tackles) anchor a unit that has allowed a respectable 105.8 rushing yards per game (15th overall). Detroit couldn't stop Adrian Peterson and the Vikings last week, however, as Minnesota rolled up a whopping 216 yards on the ground in its victory. Second- year linebacker Ernie Sims had 11 tackles in the game and tops Detroit with 105 stops on the year.
WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Kitna (3157 passing yards, 15 TD, 13 INT) still has a number of capable weapons with which to work even without Williams available, but Detroit has been plagued throughout the year by a noticeable imbalance on offense. The Lions have the fewest rushing yards (77.2 ypg) and attempts (234) in the NFL and only tried to run the ball seven times against Minnesota, although that was partly due to the team facing a sizeable deficit for much of the game. Top back Kevin Jones (458 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 6 TD) had only one yard on three carries last Sunday after putting up an impressive 93 on 20 tries against a quality Green Bay defense the previous week.
With Williams out, receivers Shaun McDonald (59 receptions, 4 TD), Mike Furrey (46 receptions, 1 TD) and heralded rookie Calvin Johnson (32 receptions, 4 TD) will all be asked to assume greater roles on Sunday. Furrey had a huge day against the Cowboys last year, catching a career-high 11 passes for 102 yards and a score. Kitna has struggled during Detroit's losing streak, having thrown seven interceptions in the four defeats after being picked off only six times through the first eight games, and there's a concern that the 11-year veteran has worn down some after being sacked an unacceptable 47 times over the course of the year.
Kitna will likely be feeling the heat from a Dallas defense that has produced 33 sacks thus far and battered Brett Favre into an early exit in Week 13. The majority of that total has come from outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware (66 tackles, 10 sacks) and Greg Ellis (23 tackles, 10.5 sacks), who have terrorized enemy quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Ware took down Kitna three times in last year's meeting, while Ellis is coming off a two-sack game versus Green Bay. The Cowboys have been vulnerable at times to strong passing teams but have compiled 18 interceptions (2nd overall) on the year, with cornerbacks Terence Newman (36 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) and Anthony Henry (19 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) and free safety Ken Hamlin (44 tackles, 5 INT, 11 PD) all having been playmakers in the secondary.
The Cowboys have yet to allow an opposing back to run for 100 yards this season, and that streak figures to continue with the Lions' reluctance to feed Kevin Jones the ball. As a team Dallas is giving up a scant 85.6 rushing yards per game (4th overall) and boasts one of the game's best run-stopping safeties in four-time Pro Bowler Roy Williams (71 tackles, 2 INT). Linebacker Bradie James (72 tackles, 2 sacks), a target of Kitna's comments following last year's meeting with Detroit, has also had a strong year on the inside.
FANTASY FOCUS
Those who have Romo and Owens on their teams don't need a recommendation here to know to start these two fantasy superstars. Witten is a must-play as well, as Detroit's Cover 2 defensive scheme often provides plenty of opportunities for tight ends that can stretch the middle of the field. Barber's also quite worthy of a start this week, especially with a good possibility of the Cowboys building a big lead and using the powerful back to run out the clock.
Judging by Kevin Jones' three-carry effort last week and Dallas' prowess in stopping the run, bench him this week if he's still got a spot on your roster. The injury to Detroit's Roy Williams boosts the fantasy stock of Furrey and McDonald, and both make decent choices this week as No. 2 receivers or flex players. It's a tougher call on Johnson; the rookie's got a world of ability but has been inconsistent. Kitna will be chucking it early and often on Sunday. That gives the mouthy signal-caller a chance to put up good numbers, but also increases the point potential of a Cowboys defense that should have plenty of opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Clearly, Dallas is the superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup, and the only realistic way the Cowboys shouldn't deliver a comfortable victory is if they don't take this game too seriously. With last year's loss to the Lions and Kitna's subsequent comments still fresh in the team's minds, don't expect that to happen. Detroit doesn't have the personnel to prevent another scoring outburst from the Dallas offense, and the Lions either can't or won't run the ball to keep the likes of Romo, Owens, Barber and Witten off the field. As the Patriots proved in mid-October, the only way to beat the Cowboys is to outscore them in a shootout. With Detroit's offense losing some bite with the injury to Roy Williams, that seems like a near- impossible task.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 38, Lions 17
posted by The Gryphon at 3:21 PM
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