Friday, June 13, 2008

NFL Football Betting – Week One - Dallas at Cleveland

By Charles Jay
BetUS NFL Betting Odds: Dallas -3

NOTABLE STAT: Teams combined for 53.5 ppg on offense last year

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Cleveland has covered its last seven home games

The Cleveland Browns (10-6 SU, 12-4 ATS) look to get off to a good football betting start as they eye the playoffs in 2008. They will play host to the Dallas Cowboys (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) in an inter-conference NFL betting matchup that is set to begin at 4:15 PM ET on Sunday, September 7 at Cleveland Browns Stadium (natural turf).

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, Dallas is the three-point road favorite.

Here are some NFL football sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* DALL has lost its last five games ATS

* DALL has lost three of its last four games SU

* DALL has lost four of its last six road games ATS

* DALL has played its last four games UNDER the total

* DALL has covered three of its last nine as a road favorite

* CLEV has covered nine of its last 11 games

* CLEV has played its last six games UNDER the total

* CLEV has covered its last seven home games

* CLEV has covered four of its last five games as an underdog

Dallas likes to think it filled some holes in the off-season, bringing Pacman Jones on board, along with seven-time Pro Bowl linebacker Zach Thomas. As of this moment, it is not known whether Jones will be able to play, because a ruling on his suspension hasn't been made by Commissioner Roger Goodell. But there is another Jones who may figure prominently, and that is first-round choice Felix Jones, who is going to upgrade Dallas' return game, in addition to giving them a situational back to complement Marion Barber who is much more explosive than yet another Jones - Julius - who has departed.

We admit that it is tough to keep up with these Joneses. But Cleveland's firepower may be even more difficult to keep up with. The Browns are certainly hoping for another stellar season from Derek Anderson, who threw for 29 touchdown passes last year. But the other components on offense, which includes wide receivers Braylon Edwards and Donte Stallworth (newly-acquired), tight end Kellen Winslow, running back Jamal Lewis and left tackle Joe Thomas, a tremendous rookie who should be even better this year, greatly contributed to this team tying Pittsburgh for the AFC North title last year, and posting a 7-1 ATS record at home.

Now this team is lacking respect again, getting points at home against a Cowboy team that started strong, but faded a bit toward the end and underachieved in the playoffs for the second straight season. We obviously like Tony Romo an awful lot, but he threw five interceptions against three TD's in his last four games, and on the road his passer rating was ten points lower than his mark at Texas Stadium. With all their off-season moves, the 'Pokes did not really come up with a genuine threat to team with Terrell Owens at the wide receiver spot, and have to be concerned with how much they can get out of Terry Glenn, who will turn 34 by game time and who played in two games last season after coming back from injury (catching two passes in the playoff loss to New York).

The Browns' secondary is suspect, but there have been acquisitions on the defensive line (namely Shaun Rogers) who may upgrade things. Cleveland may slip this year, though I think there is an upside. And inasmuch as they have proven to be double-tough on their home field, there is value with the points, although I suspect as we get closer, the total may be worth a long look.

In this special advance play, we'll take the Browns plus the field goal in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: CLEVELAND (+3) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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