Week 4 NFL picks: No rivalry better than Redskins-Cowboys
by Vinnie Iyer
College football prides itself on rivalry games, but the NFL has quite a few great ones of its own. Some are geographic and some develop through history, but they're all based on familiarity, and we all know what that breeds.
A countdown of the NFL's top five current rivalries:
5. Broncos-Raiders. The Chiefs against either of these teams is pretty darn good, too, but considering K.C. is not so good at the moment, we'll go with the one with the most bad blood. Denver has owned this matchup for as long as Mike Shanahan wanted to take it out on Al Davis, but there always is something spicy to watch here.
4. Cowboys-Giants. Any combination of teams in the NFC East provides a great rivalry game, because all four organizations are relentless in their pursuit of winning. But this one has heated up of late with the Giants as Super Bowl 42 champs and the Cowboys as Super Bowl 43 favorites.
3. Colts-Patriots. This is where we will miss Tom Brady the most, in what's become an annual duel of the AFC's elite. In past seasons, a top seed has been on the line -- this year, just getting into the playoffs might be in the balance.
2. Bears-Packers. Regional proximity and rich history make this one what it is. The small town from Wisconsin and its big-city Illinois neighbor to the south. Plus, you have to appreciate two blue-collar fan bases who are sustained by Sundays at Solider and Lambeau.
So that takes us to the NFL's No. 1 rivalry, which also happens to be:
The NFC Game of the Week
Washington at Dallas. There is no question that with certain events happening over in the AFC, America's Team has become the team to beat this season. But a Super Bowl run, of course, depends on Tony Romo finally being able to help the Cowboys get over their playoff-win drought in about four months. Until then, they should have no problems buzzing past offenses not nearly as loaded as theirs with a defense that's improved at closing.
As much as the spotlight is on Romo, the Cowboys need to make it more about Marion Barber, Felix Jones and their running game, led by their massive offensive linemen. It's sure fun and fantasy-friendly when Romo is throwing downfield spirals to Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin and Jason Witten, but this team is most impressive when it puts teams away with physical football.
The Cowboys will need to use plenty of Barber and Jones this week. The Redskins' new passing game under first-year coach Jim Zorn has found its stride, as Jason Campbell has looked good in executing it. Dallas can't afford to get into a shootout with another division archrival like it did in the near-loss to the Eagles. The Cowboys will be tempted to keep to the air without the pass-rushing threat of Jason Taylor, but instead they should pound the ball to the left side.
Once the Cowboys build a comfortable lead with a few strikes to Owens and Witten, Clinton Portis becomes less of a factor for the Redskins. Then the host can start to pound Barber, controlling the clock and keeping DeMarcus Ware and the defense fresh enough to tee off on Campbell in the second half. The Redskins will have their moments, as they always do against the 'Boys, but Barber will keep it from being a close shave. Cowboys 34, Redskins 20.
AFC Game of the Week
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. It hurts just to write about this game considering how much physical pain these teams will try to inflict on each other Monday night. The emotions will be high in prime time, and the hits will be hard. Both teams will of course come out trying to stonewall the run. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall will have tough sledding in his first start for the Steelers, while the Ravens' three-headed monster of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain will find just as little room on the other side.
Passing won't be too much fun, either. The Ravens' 3-4 will get to Ben Roethlisberger often, and the Steelers' 3-4 will have just as many surprises for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco. Give the slight edge to Roethlisberger's supporting cast at receiver and his experience. It also will probably take a big defensive play or two at home to get the win. Steelers 20, Ravens 16.
Old Men of the Week
Arizona at New York Jets. Kurt Warner, 37, and Brett Favre, 38, have each won multiple league MVP awards, won one Super Bowl and lost one Super Bowl. They're also similar in that they're confident gunslingers who love to throw deep. That sometimes leads to game-changing turnovers. Expect a fair share of big plays and mistakes with Favre playing a bit better to get his first home win in New York. Jets 23, Cardinals 20.
Desperation of the Week
Cleveland at Cincinnati. The Battle For Ohio has become the Battle Of Oh-and-3. Where have you gone, Paul Brown? Each team has been plagued by similar woes, due largely to poor play on their offensive and defensive lines. So the wash in the trenches will lead this matchup to where it usually goes -- the air. While the Browns are tinkering with replacing Derek Anderson with Dublin, Ohio, native Brady Quinn, notable non-Ohio State fan Carson Palmer will be the difference at home. Besides, we know USC usually beats Oregon State and Notre Dame. Bengals 27, Browns 24.
Shootout of the Week
San Francisco at New Orleans. First, top wideout Marques Colston went down. Now it's tight end Jeremy Shockey. Still, as long as the Saints have Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, they will remain explosive offensively. The big surprise is how Mike Martz has turned a deep-sixed Niners offense into a potential top-10 unit. J.T. O'Sullivan has found a groove, and this week he faces the team that originally drafted him in the sixth round six years ago. Based on recent history, Bush's team will eke out a victory over Gore -- Frank, that is. Saints 31, 49ers 27.
Lock of the Week
Denver over Kansas City. While the Broncos seem to have finally found the quarterback who can take the torch from John Elway, the Chiefs have already put four men at QB this season, and three of them have been banged up. Jay Cutler has come out on fire, thanks to help from pass-catchers Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler. K.C. also has some receiving weapons that could give a shaky Denver defense fits in Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Unfortunately, whether it's unproven Tyler Thigpen or grizzled Damon Huard, the Chiefs won't be able to keep up in this potential shootout. Broncos 38, Chiefs 27.
Upset of the Week
Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Remember when Favre was pretty darn close to becoming a Buccaneer? Even though that didn't happen, this is still an interesting game, with Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Griese in a duel of NFC division winners from last season, both of which are 2-1 this season. Jon Gruden is always looking for his next Rich Gannon, and Griese gets his second chance at it this week. Both defenses are built to not give up big plays, but eventually a long run or a deep connection will make the difference. With the home-run threats of Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Rodgers is better equipped to deliver. Packers 23, Buccaneers 20.
Rest of the Week
Atlanta at Carolina. Expect an up-and-down rookie season for Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan as long he draws inferior defenses at home and tougher all-around teams on the road. It also won't be easy for Michael Turner to cut through the Panthers' front seven. Also, look for the Jake Delhomme-Steve Smith connection to come up big in a home division game. Panthers 23, Falcons 13.
Buffalo at St. Louis. Don't be fooled by that old-school helmet with the stationary Buffalo -- this young team is charging and has a real shot to displace the Patriots as AFC East champs. Trent Edwards is playing like a Pro Bowler in his second year, and with their offense, defense and special teams, the Bills can beat you in many ways, even when they're down in the fourth quarter. The Rams are desperately turning to their own Trent -- Green -- at quarterback, but they are an all-around bad team. Bills 30, Rams 17.
Houston at Jacksonville. The Jags perhaps saved their season with that last-minute rally in the new house of their AFC South rival, the Indianapolis Colts. Now they need a dominant performance against a much weaker division foe to really turn the corner. Now that the necessary adjustments have been made to get Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game on track, they should run all over the Texans, and pull away with a few takeaways from Matt Schaub. Jaguars 27, Texans 10.
Minnesota at Tennessee. Both teams are relying on old, well-traveled quarterbacks, electric running games and physical front-seven play to win games. The difference is the pass rush and secondary. The Vikes have some playmakers such as Jared Allen, Darren Sharper and Antoine Winfield, but the Titans are a few notches better with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Keith Bulluck, Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan. Titans 24, Vikings 13.
San Diego at Oakland. In a twist, Lane Kiffin is trying to keep his job by proving the Raiders can be effective with a run-heavy, Martyball-type approach, while former Raiders coach Norv Turner has unleashed a great downfield passing game with Philip Rivers. The problem is, if the rushing attack doesn't work for Silver and Black, they'll need to lean on young JaMarcus Russell. If the Bolts have trouble passing, they can just give the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers 42, Raiders 17.
Philadelphia at Chicago. While former Mt. Carmel QB Donovan McNabb was rumored to be returning to the Windy City early in the offseason, he instead just visits on a Sunday night. The Eagles look ready to soar alongside the Cowboys and Giants again in the NFC East, and their defense should dominate a limited offense from the NFC North. With Brian Westbrook banged up, however, it won't be easy against Brian Urlacher and friends. Eagles 13, Bears 10.
Byes of the Week
The 3-0 Giants have picked up where they left off in Super Bowl 42, as Eli Manning has stayed sharp, the running game has been very productive and the sack machine has kept on rolling without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. They won't be fazed much by the Plaxico Burress reprimand and one-game suspension, either. ...
The 1-2 Dolphins are likely to drive more teams nuts than just their rivals in Foxborough. With a deep power backfield in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, an underrated line and a careful caretaker quarterback, they will find a way to stay in most of their games. ...
The 2-1 Patriots don't have a long offseason to think about their first loss of this season. They need to make some big adjustments to hold up better defensively, all while working on scoring more points with Matt Cassel at the helm. In the Bill Belichick era, the team has prided itself on being able to replace anybody, but Tom Brady is simply irreplaceable. ...
The 1-2 Colts are off to an even slower start with Peyton Manning coming off his own knee injury and were dealt a big blow in losing the quarterback of their defense, Bob Sanders, for 4-5 games. At least Manning and Sanders, unlike Brady, can come back healthy this season. ...
No team needed a bye more than the 1-2 Seahawks. They will look like a completely different offense when they travel cross-country to play those Giants next week, with Bobby Engram, Deion Branch and Maurice Morris all set to return. Not needing to cover Burress is also a big break in that game. ...
OK, maybe the 0-3 Lions needed the bye a little bit more just to forget about their miserable start. The Matt Millen move was long overdue. I don't envy the next person in charge of overhaul in Detroit.
Stats of the Week
Week 3 straight up: 10-6
Season-to-date straight up: 32-15
College football prides itself on rivalry games, but the NFL has quite a few great ones of its own. Some are geographic and some develop through history, but they're all based on familiarity, and we all know what that breeds.
A countdown of the NFL's top five current rivalries:
5. Broncos-Raiders. The Chiefs against either of these teams is pretty darn good, too, but considering K.C. is not so good at the moment, we'll go with the one with the most bad blood. Denver has owned this matchup for as long as Mike Shanahan wanted to take it out on Al Davis, but there always is something spicy to watch here.
4. Cowboys-Giants. Any combination of teams in the NFC East provides a great rivalry game, because all four organizations are relentless in their pursuit of winning. But this one has heated up of late with the Giants as Super Bowl 42 champs and the Cowboys as Super Bowl 43 favorites.
3. Colts-Patriots. This is where we will miss Tom Brady the most, in what's become an annual duel of the AFC's elite. In past seasons, a top seed has been on the line -- this year, just getting into the playoffs might be in the balance.
2. Bears-Packers. Regional proximity and rich history make this one what it is. The small town from Wisconsin and its big-city Illinois neighbor to the south. Plus, you have to appreciate two blue-collar fan bases who are sustained by Sundays at Solider and Lambeau.
So that takes us to the NFL's No. 1 rivalry, which also happens to be:
The NFC Game of the Week
Washington at Dallas. There is no question that with certain events happening over in the AFC, America's Team has become the team to beat this season. But a Super Bowl run, of course, depends on Tony Romo finally being able to help the Cowboys get over their playoff-win drought in about four months. Until then, they should have no problems buzzing past offenses not nearly as loaded as theirs with a defense that's improved at closing.
As much as the spotlight is on Romo, the Cowboys need to make it more about Marion Barber, Felix Jones and their running game, led by their massive offensive linemen. It's sure fun and fantasy-friendly when Romo is throwing downfield spirals to Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin and Jason Witten, but this team is most impressive when it puts teams away with physical football.
The Cowboys will need to use plenty of Barber and Jones this week. The Redskins' new passing game under first-year coach Jim Zorn has found its stride, as Jason Campbell has looked good in executing it. Dallas can't afford to get into a shootout with another division archrival like it did in the near-loss to the Eagles. The Cowboys will be tempted to keep to the air without the pass-rushing threat of Jason Taylor, but instead they should pound the ball to the left side.
Once the Cowboys build a comfortable lead with a few strikes to Owens and Witten, Clinton Portis becomes less of a factor for the Redskins. Then the host can start to pound Barber, controlling the clock and keeping DeMarcus Ware and the defense fresh enough to tee off on Campbell in the second half. The Redskins will have their moments, as they always do against the 'Boys, but Barber will keep it from being a close shave. Cowboys 34, Redskins 20.
AFC Game of the Week
Baltimore at Pittsburgh. It hurts just to write about this game considering how much physical pain these teams will try to inflict on each other Monday night. The emotions will be high in prime time, and the hits will be hard. Both teams will of course come out trying to stonewall the run. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall will have tough sledding in his first start for the Steelers, while the Ravens' three-headed monster of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain will find just as little room on the other side.
Passing won't be too much fun, either. The Ravens' 3-4 will get to Ben Roethlisberger often, and the Steelers' 3-4 will have just as many surprises for Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco. Give the slight edge to Roethlisberger's supporting cast at receiver and his experience. It also will probably take a big defensive play or two at home to get the win. Steelers 20, Ravens 16.
Old Men of the Week
Arizona at New York Jets. Kurt Warner, 37, and Brett Favre, 38, have each won multiple league MVP awards, won one Super Bowl and lost one Super Bowl. They're also similar in that they're confident gunslingers who love to throw deep. That sometimes leads to game-changing turnovers. Expect a fair share of big plays and mistakes with Favre playing a bit better to get his first home win in New York. Jets 23, Cardinals 20.
Desperation of the Week
Cleveland at Cincinnati. The Battle For Ohio has become the Battle Of Oh-and-3. Where have you gone, Paul Brown? Each team has been plagued by similar woes, due largely to poor play on their offensive and defensive lines. So the wash in the trenches will lead this matchup to where it usually goes -- the air. While the Browns are tinkering with replacing Derek Anderson with Dublin, Ohio, native Brady Quinn, notable non-Ohio State fan Carson Palmer will be the difference at home. Besides, we know USC usually beats Oregon State and Notre Dame. Bengals 27, Browns 24.
Shootout of the Week
San Francisco at New Orleans. First, top wideout Marques Colston went down. Now it's tight end Jeremy Shockey. Still, as long as the Saints have Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, they will remain explosive offensively. The big surprise is how Mike Martz has turned a deep-sixed Niners offense into a potential top-10 unit. J.T. O'Sullivan has found a groove, and this week he faces the team that originally drafted him in the sixth round six years ago. Based on recent history, Bush's team will eke out a victory over Gore -- Frank, that is. Saints 31, 49ers 27.
Lock of the Week
Denver over Kansas City. While the Broncos seem to have finally found the quarterback who can take the torch from John Elway, the Chiefs have already put four men at QB this season, and three of them have been banged up. Jay Cutler has come out on fire, thanks to help from pass-catchers Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler. K.C. also has some receiving weapons that could give a shaky Denver defense fits in Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Unfortunately, whether it's unproven Tyler Thigpen or grizzled Damon Huard, the Chiefs won't be able to keep up in this potential shootout. Broncos 38, Chiefs 27.
Upset of the Week
Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Remember when Favre was pretty darn close to becoming a Buccaneer? Even though that didn't happen, this is still an interesting game, with Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Griese in a duel of NFC division winners from last season, both of which are 2-1 this season. Jon Gruden is always looking for his next Rich Gannon, and Griese gets his second chance at it this week. Both defenses are built to not give up big plays, but eventually a long run or a deep connection will make the difference. With the home-run threats of Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Rodgers is better equipped to deliver. Packers 23, Buccaneers 20.
Rest of the Week
Atlanta at Carolina. Expect an up-and-down rookie season for Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan as long he draws inferior defenses at home and tougher all-around teams on the road. It also won't be easy for Michael Turner to cut through the Panthers' front seven. Also, look for the Jake Delhomme-Steve Smith connection to come up big in a home division game. Panthers 23, Falcons 13.
Buffalo at St. Louis. Don't be fooled by that old-school helmet with the stationary Buffalo -- this young team is charging and has a real shot to displace the Patriots as AFC East champs. Trent Edwards is playing like a Pro Bowler in his second year, and with their offense, defense and special teams, the Bills can beat you in many ways, even when they're down in the fourth quarter. The Rams are desperately turning to their own Trent -- Green -- at quarterback, but they are an all-around bad team. Bills 30, Rams 17.
Houston at Jacksonville. The Jags perhaps saved their season with that last-minute rally in the new house of their AFC South rival, the Indianapolis Colts. Now they need a dominant performance against a much weaker division foe to really turn the corner. Now that the necessary adjustments have been made to get Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game on track, they should run all over the Texans, and pull away with a few takeaways from Matt Schaub. Jaguars 27, Texans 10.
Minnesota at Tennessee. Both teams are relying on old, well-traveled quarterbacks, electric running games and physical front-seven play to win games. The difference is the pass rush and secondary. The Vikes have some playmakers such as Jared Allen, Darren Sharper and Antoine Winfield, but the Titans are a few notches better with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Keith Bulluck, Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan. Titans 24, Vikings 13.
San Diego at Oakland. In a twist, Lane Kiffin is trying to keep his job by proving the Raiders can be effective with a run-heavy, Martyball-type approach, while former Raiders coach Norv Turner has unleashed a great downfield passing game with Philip Rivers. The problem is, if the rushing attack doesn't work for Silver and Black, they'll need to lean on young JaMarcus Russell. If the Bolts have trouble passing, they can just give the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson. Chargers 42, Raiders 17.
Philadelphia at Chicago. While former Mt. Carmel QB Donovan McNabb was rumored to be returning to the Windy City early in the offseason, he instead just visits on a Sunday night. The Eagles look ready to soar alongside the Cowboys and Giants again in the NFC East, and their defense should dominate a limited offense from the NFC North. With Brian Westbrook banged up, however, it won't be easy against Brian Urlacher and friends. Eagles 13, Bears 10.
Byes of the Week
The 3-0 Giants have picked up where they left off in Super Bowl 42, as Eli Manning has stayed sharp, the running game has been very productive and the sack machine has kept on rolling without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. They won't be fazed much by the Plaxico Burress reprimand and one-game suspension, either. ...
The 1-2 Dolphins are likely to drive more teams nuts than just their rivals in Foxborough. With a deep power backfield in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, an underrated line and a careful caretaker quarterback, they will find a way to stay in most of their games. ...
The 2-1 Patriots don't have a long offseason to think about their first loss of this season. They need to make some big adjustments to hold up better defensively, all while working on scoring more points with Matt Cassel at the helm. In the Bill Belichick era, the team has prided itself on being able to replace anybody, but Tom Brady is simply irreplaceable. ...
The 1-2 Colts are off to an even slower start with Peyton Manning coming off his own knee injury and were dealt a big blow in losing the quarterback of their defense, Bob Sanders, for 4-5 games. At least Manning and Sanders, unlike Brady, can come back healthy this season. ...
No team needed a bye more than the 1-2 Seahawks. They will look like a completely different offense when they travel cross-country to play those Giants next week, with Bobby Engram, Deion Branch and Maurice Morris all set to return. Not needing to cover Burress is also a big break in that game. ...
OK, maybe the 0-3 Lions needed the bye a little bit more just to forget about their miserable start. The Matt Millen move was long overdue. I don't envy the next person in charge of overhaul in Detroit.
Stats of the Week
Week 3 straight up: 10-6
Season-to-date straight up: 32-15
posted by The Gryphon at 8:46 AM
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