Four reasons the Cowboys will win on Sunday
By Os Davis on November 17, 2006 12:55 AM
The Indianapolis Colts are an unstoppable force, undefeated through 10 weeks with an offense even more indefatigable than their slick new swagger; the Dallas Cowboys are outfitted with a replacement QB, without their No. 1 receiver, and struggling to stay above .500. It's Colts versus Cowboys in Texas this Sunday and Peyton Manning and his guys have got to be the favorites.
Nevertheless, this is the NFL and there is parity, 21st-century style. The Cowboys must win, they can win and they will win. How? Why? Glad you asked...
Sheer numbers. The 2006 Indianapolis Colts are the 11th team to win the first nine in a season since the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins . Since kickoff on opening day 1973, 987 teams have played a season in the NFL. The chance of going undefeated through nine, then, is about 1.1 percent. Only nine teams has gone 10-0; this represents just over 0.9 percent. The Colts can't keep this up. (A weak start, but we're just warming up here.)
Yes, Tony Romo is that good. All right, all of you who were in the "Start Romo!" camp from training camp, you can quit saying "I told you so" now. In fact, y'all should start watching this guy, certainly the most talented QB to be thrown into the top dog role during a season since Tom Brady. Despite taking a sack and a half per game, Romo has thrown multiple TDs in three games out of four (and didn't need to in the blowout win over the Carolina Panthers ). Dude is on pace for 2,000 yards in a half-season of play and has a quarterback rating over 100. What this means to the Colts and the rest of the NFL is this: The Cowboys have a balanced attack like they haven't since Emmitt Smith's days on the grass dance floor.
Prediction: Bill Parcells has Romo play Indy like any other Jones in the NFL. So Parcells sees the front four reacting to the run and then rushing the passer? Dallas will throw lots and lots of play action, with or without Terry Glenn. (P.S. - As good as this Colts' secondary is, they simply have no answer for Terrell Owens. No one does, except Terrell Owens.)
But then again, there is the run. Doesn't Marion Barber III just look ready to bust out? If this guy had the mouth of a wide receiver, he'd be shouting for the ball right now. At 73 attempts (versus Julius Jones' 180) and with erratic use, Barber has been relatively consistently right around five yards per carry. Synchronicity stat of the week: The Indianapolis 'D' has allowed 5.1 yards per carry; Barber's average is also 5.1 yards per carry. C'mon, Tuna, give him the ball 40 times!
This is a statement game. The Cowboys, at 5-4, may be playing below their level. Or they may not. The Cowboys may be able to catch the New York Giants , even beat them in 'Jersey in December. Or they may not. The Cowboys may be in the driver's seat for the top NFC wild-card spot. Or they may not. In this back-and-forth 2006, this game has got to be the most important game this year. Parcells knows this and should the better coach win, Dallas will prevail. And don't talk to me about Tony Dungy's Colts chumping Belichick's gang.
Final score: Dallas 31, Colts 27. Owens gets 2 TDs, Barber goes for 120.
The Indianapolis Colts are an unstoppable force, undefeated through 10 weeks with an offense even more indefatigable than their slick new swagger; the Dallas Cowboys are outfitted with a replacement QB, without their No. 1 receiver, and struggling to stay above .500. It's Colts versus Cowboys in Texas this Sunday and Peyton Manning and his guys have got to be the favorites.
Nevertheless, this is the NFL and there is parity, 21st-century style. The Cowboys must win, they can win and they will win. How? Why? Glad you asked...
Sheer numbers. The 2006 Indianapolis Colts are the 11th team to win the first nine in a season since the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins . Since kickoff on opening day 1973, 987 teams have played a season in the NFL. The chance of going undefeated through nine, then, is about 1.1 percent. Only nine teams has gone 10-0; this represents just over 0.9 percent. The Colts can't keep this up. (A weak start, but we're just warming up here.)
Yes, Tony Romo is that good. All right, all of you who were in the "Start Romo!" camp from training camp, you can quit saying "I told you so" now. In fact, y'all should start watching this guy, certainly the most talented QB to be thrown into the top dog role during a season since Tom Brady. Despite taking a sack and a half per game, Romo has thrown multiple TDs in three games out of four (and didn't need to in the blowout win over the Carolina Panthers ). Dude is on pace for 2,000 yards in a half-season of play and has a quarterback rating over 100. What this means to the Colts and the rest of the NFL is this: The Cowboys have a balanced attack like they haven't since Emmitt Smith's days on the grass dance floor.
Prediction: Bill Parcells has Romo play Indy like any other Jones in the NFL. So Parcells sees the front four reacting to the run and then rushing the passer? Dallas will throw lots and lots of play action, with or without Terry Glenn. (P.S. - As good as this Colts' secondary is, they simply have no answer for Terrell Owens. No one does, except Terrell Owens.)
But then again, there is the run. Doesn't Marion Barber III just look ready to bust out? If this guy had the mouth of a wide receiver, he'd be shouting for the ball right now. At 73 attempts (versus Julius Jones' 180) and with erratic use, Barber has been relatively consistently right around five yards per carry. Synchronicity stat of the week: The Indianapolis 'D' has allowed 5.1 yards per carry; Barber's average is also 5.1 yards per carry. C'mon, Tuna, give him the ball 40 times!
This is a statement game. The Cowboys, at 5-4, may be playing below their level. Or they may not. The Cowboys may be able to catch the New York Giants , even beat them in 'Jersey in December. Or they may not. The Cowboys may be in the driver's seat for the top NFC wild-card spot. Or they may not. In this back-and-forth 2006, this game has got to be the most important game this year. Parcells knows this and should the better coach win, Dallas will prevail. And don't talk to me about Tony Dungy's Colts chumping Belichick's gang.
Final score: Dallas 31, Colts 27. Owens gets 2 TDs, Barber goes for 120.
posted by The Gryphon at 7:01 PM
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