Friday, September 21, 2007

'Money Talks' matchups

Jeff Haney on some important games for those who bet on football, and today's 'Money Talks' matchups
http://www.lasvegassun.com

The first two weeks of any NFL season typically carry surprises for sports bettors, and this one was no exception.

We saw playoff teams from last season such as the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles stumble to 0-2 starts.

Lightly regarded teams such as the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans, who each opened at 100-1 at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book to win the Super Bowl , won their first two games and went a combined 3-0-1 against the point spread.

This past weekend, when only three favorites covered the spread, the Cleveland Browns' formerly suspect offense overcame a quarterback controversy to rack up 554 yards and 51 points against Cincinnati.
As the season approaches its midstretch, however, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D'Amico expects the NFL to play truer to form.

"From week three to week six is when you see what these teams are really made of," D'Amico said. "That part of the season, which starts Sunday, is going to act as a gauge for what will happen over the next two to three months."

D'Amico figures the Dallas Cowboys will continue to assert themselves as the class of the NFC East, and perhaps the conference, starting with Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears.

The Cowboys are a road underdog of 3 to 3 1/2 points in Las Vegas sports books. D'Amico recommends a play on Dallas plus the points but thinks an outright victory is well within the Cowboys' grasp.

D'Amico is not sold on Cedric Benson, the Bears' featured running back, or the rest of the Chicago offense, which has scored 23 points in two games.
After week one, San Diego Chargers linebacker Shaun Phillips created a minor storm by publicly questioning Benson's mental and physical toughness.
"The Bears' running game and Benson are just not getting it done," said D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info). "The Dallas defense has been creating turnovers and the offense has been scoring points."

The storyline of the game pits the Bears' vaunted defense against an offense led by Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, and D'Amico sees Romo prevailing.
"Romo seems to be maturing more and more each game," he said. "He really has this team playing in sync."

D'Amico also likes the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans as underdogs in week three, and sees the Pittsburgh Steelers covering as a big favorite.
The Packers are getting 5 to 5 1/2 points in Las Vegas against the San Diego Chargers, who have not shown they belong with the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts among the AFC elite, D'Amico said.

"You have to drop them down a little, and not just because of their loss to the Patriots," D'Amico said. "They don't work together as a team as well as Indy or New England."

The Titans are 5-point underdogs, having been bet down from an opening number of 6, against the 0-2 Saints in New Orleans' first home game of the season Monday night.

Early money at the betting windows also has backed the Steelers, driving the line from 7 1/2 to 9 points against visiting San Francisco.