Friday, October 05, 2007

Cowboys Insider: Dallas protects the ball, wins

Tom Orsborn
San Antonio Express-News

Teams that protect the ball on offense and take it away on defense are usually consistent winners.

It’s a simple formula, and the Dallas Cowboys under Wade Phillips appear to be on their way to mastering it.

The undefeated Cowboys and the undefeated Indianapolis Colts are tied for No. 1 in the league in turnover differential at plus-7.

The other two remaining unbeaten teams, the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots, have plus-3 differentials.

It’s a league-wide trend: The nine teams with a turnover differential of at least plus-2 are a combined 29-5.

Conversely, the bottom-five teams in turnover differential – the Baltimore Ravens, the St. Louis Rams, the Miami Dolphins, the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints – are a combined 3-16.

Dallas entered the season hoping to have an aggressive, ball-hawking defense. So far, so good: The Cowboys’ 11 takeaways are second only to the Detroit Lions’ 13. The teams are tied for the league lead in interceptions with nine each.

Anthony Henry leads the way in Dallas with a league-high four interceptions. Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams have two each. Jacques Reeves has one.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas has suffered just four turnovers, with three interceptions thrown by Tony Romo and a fumble lost on a kickoff return.

Only three other teams – the Colts, the Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars – have turned the ball over fewer times than the Cowboys.

Romo deserves a lot of credit, but Marion Barber, Julius Jones and Tyson Thompson have also done their part. Dallas has run 251 offensive plays this year, including 124 on the ground. Barber and Jones have combined for 99 carries without a fumble.

If the Cowboys can keep it up, history says a Super Bowl berth could be on the horizon. Last year’s participants, the Colts and Bears, sported turnover differentials of plus-7 and plus-8, respectively.


Five reasons why the Bills will beat the Cowboys

1. Dallas will be caught looking ahead to next week’s showdown with the New England Patriots.

2. Trent Edwards is for real.

3. Marshawn Lynch’s running will keep it close, and Lee Evans will provide the backbreaker by burning Roy Williams deep for a crucial TD reception.

4. They’ll be stoked for the first Monday night game in Buffalo in 13 years.

5. Aaron Schobel has a breakout game to become the first pass rusher to make life miserable for Tony Romo.


Five reasons why the Cowboys will beat the Bills

1. They have the league’s second best offense, while the Bills are ranked dead last in defense.

2. They have the eighth-ranked defense, while the Bills are ranked 31st in offense.

3. They won their last four against AFC teams.

4. Wade Phillips will raise the heat on Edwards.

5. The win-one-for Wade factor. The players like their head coach and are aware Bills owner Ralph Wilson did him wrong.

Prediction: Monday night emotion and the home crowd can fuel the Bills for only so long before the Cowboys’ superior offensive firepower takes over. With their defense banged up, the Bills have little hope of pulling off the upset. Cowboys 45, Bills 14.