Friday, October 12, 2007

Week 6 primer: Brady, Pats will pass Big D test (NFC East only)

Vinnie Iyer
http://www.sportingnews.com

When there's a game this good on the schedule, it needs no further introduction. Ladies and gentlemen, may I turn your attention to the ...

Game of the Season (So Far)

New England at Dallas. The Cowboys were oh so close to losing last week at Buffalo, but now this matchup remains a classic inter-conference showdown of undefeated powers. It's America's Colors against America's Team. It's the league's top two glamour boy quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Tony Romo. It's the mercurial turned mild-mannered superstar wide receivers, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Both teams also have terrific Southeastern Conference athletes at tight end, a Golden Gopher in the backfield, good 3-4 defensive schemes and that certain swagger that makes fans elsewhere love to hate them. So what separates the Patriots (the league's No. 2 offense and No. 2 defense) on the road from the Cowboys (the league's No. 1 offense and No. 8 defense)?

I think this game will come down to two great intangibles, experience and coaching. On Monday night against Buffalo, Romo showed a tendency to throw over the middle, particularly to tight end Jason Witten. Patriots coach Bill Belichick will see this on film and come up with complex coverage schemes to exploit it. Meanwhile, Dallas coach Wade Phillips, while the defensive coordinator at San Diego, had some success keeping Brady in check by getting consistent pressure in Brady's face.

This time around against Phillips' scheme, Brady has much better wide receivers -- Moss, Wes Welker and Donte' Stallworth -- to burn opponents for risky blitzes. The Cowboys also must account for tight end Ben Watson and a sneakily good power running game. Romo, like Brady, is an unflappable, championship-caliber cool customer. With help from Witten, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton and his own athleticism, Romo will make his share of big plays.

But how can you go against Brady, considering he is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career? Brady is the proven big-game performer, and how he passes the Patriots past the Cowboys will be a memorable performance. The pick: Patriots 30, Cowboys 27.

Rest of the Week

Philadelphia at New York Jets. Chad Pennington is a good quarterback when everything around him is working well, but with troubles in the running game and in pass protection the pressure is forcing him into mistakes. The Eagles -- 8-0 in the Andy Reid Era after a bye week -- will come out healthier and more aggressive defensively. They will make Pennington uncomfortable early, and we will see backup Kellen Clemens as some point Sunday. The week off also gave Donovan McNabb and the key offensive cogs time to get healthier, which will lead to several big plays against a shaky Jets secondary. The pick: Eagles 27, Jets 17.

Game of the Week, NFC

Washington at Green Bay. Both defenses are much improved this season. The Redskins haven't changed much, other than adding youngsters Rocky McIntosh and LaRon Landry; it's just that veterans such as Andre Carter and Marcus Washington have better executed Gregg Williams' aggressive upfield scheme. The Packers are even better at rushing the passer with Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and have a better pair of physical veteran cornerbacks in Al Harris and Charles Woodson.

It is unclear whether Washington quarterback Jason Campbell will have his wide receivers healthy, and that could allow Green Bay's front seven to be more aggressive against the run and take its chances outside with Harris and Woodson man-to-man against second- and third-string receivers. With Brett Favre settling for quicker, high-percentage passes to the wide receivers and smart dumpoffs to the tight ends and backs, he is in better position to neutralize the Redskins' attack mode. The pick: Packers 20, Redskins 14.

Lock of the Week

New York Giants over Atlanta. Previously in the Lock of the Week sections, I've picked the Steelers, Bears, Patriots, Cowboys and Colts and still would be alive if only I were in a survival pool. Now, it gets tricky. The Giants are not a premier team, but this looks like a horrible mismatch.

The Falcons have lost left tackle Wayne Gandy for the season, and right tackle Todd Weiner is expected to miss the game. That leaves unproven backups to handle the G-Men's swarming pass rush, led by end Osi Umenyiora. Without enough protection, it will be a long night for Joey Harrington. The red-hot Giants also are scorching on offense, with Brandon Jacobs back to help Eli Manning and friends. Let it ride on Monday night, folks. The pick: Giants 27, Falcons 10.