Yakuza Rich: Stats Show You Shouldn't Worry About the D for Now
Stats Show You Shouldn't Worry About the Defense For Now
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com
The question was posed today about the lack of plays the Cowboys defense has made in the preseason. The team only has 3 defensive sacks with 0 interceptions and forced fumbles. The general rule of thumb in preseason is that it really doesn't matter unless the team goes winless or undefeated as history has shown teams that go winless generally do not do well in the regular season while teams that go undefeated are more likely to make the playoffs.
Either way, I wanted to see how some defensive stats in the preseason correlated to the regular season. So here's the stats I looked at:
1. Plays from scrimmage per forced fumble
2. Plays from scrimmage per fumble recovery
3. Pass attempts per interception
4. Pass attempts per sack
5. QB Rating Allowed
After calculating the team's preseason and regular season numbers for the stats above, I then ran a correlation coefficent.
As simple as I can put it, a correlation coefficient is a number that ranges from -1.0 to +1.0 and it helps determine the statistical relationship between two variables.
The closer the number is to -1.0, the stronger the NEGATIVE correlation is. For instance, if I had a restaurant and wanted to know the correlation between hot soup sold and temperature and came up with a correlation coefficient of -0.8, that would mean there's a very strong negative correlation or I could term it as "the higher the temperature, it's likely that there will be less hot soup sold."
On the flip side, if the number is closer to +1.0, the stronger the POSITIVE CORRELATION is. For instance, if I wanted to know the correlation between lemonade sold and temperature and came up with a coefficient of +0.8, that would mean there's a very strong positive correlation or I could term it as "the higher the temperature, the more likely I will sell lemonade."
Lastly, the closer the number is to Zero, that means there's no correlation. So if I'm trying to determine hamburgers sold in comparison to temperature and come up with a coefficient of +0.03, that means that temperature has really no effect on burger sales. It could be 100 degrees or 25 degrees out and I'm likely to see now difference in burger sales.
So that's what I'm looking for here and here's what I came up with for the past 2 seasons (I could only find preseason stats for the past 2 years):
PLAYS FROM SCRIMMAGE PER FORCED FUMBLE
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.........................................-0.1328
2006.........................................-0.0307
PLAYS FROM SCRIMMAGE PER FUMBLE RECOVERY
Year................................Correlation Coefficient
2007.........................................+0.09 27
2006.........................................-0.0335
PASS ATTEMPTS PER INTERCEPTION
Year................................Correlation Coefficient
2007........................................-0.01749
2006........................................+0.524 01
PASS ATTEMPTS PER SACK
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.......................................+0.0983 3
2006.......................................+0.1269 4
QB RATING ALLOWED
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.......................................+0.3561 59
2006......................................+0.42425 9
Unfortunately I don't have that big of a sample size, but the indication is that when it comes to the stats I analyzed, preseason play is really no indicator of how the team will do in these areas in the regular season. The strongest correlation out there was pass attempts per interception in 2006 (a coefficient of 0.52) and even that appears to be an abberation as in 2007 the coefficient was near zero. Out of all of the stats listed, the biggest correlation year to year appears to be QB rating allowed, and it's strongest correlation was only 0.42 which really isn't all that strong of a correlation.
For instance, last preseason the St. Louis Rams finished 1st in pass attempts per sack in the preseason, but were 22nd in that statistic come the regular season. And the Vikings finished 1st in pass attempts per interception in preseason in 2007, only to finish 28th in that statistic in the regular season.
So while I'd like to have seen better play from the defense and the team looks talented on the field, but not exactly sharp, statistics show that it's ridiculous to worry too much about it because it is just preseason.
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com
The question was posed today about the lack of plays the Cowboys defense has made in the preseason. The team only has 3 defensive sacks with 0 interceptions and forced fumbles. The general rule of thumb in preseason is that it really doesn't matter unless the team goes winless or undefeated as history has shown teams that go winless generally do not do well in the regular season while teams that go undefeated are more likely to make the playoffs.
Either way, I wanted to see how some defensive stats in the preseason correlated to the regular season. So here's the stats I looked at:
1. Plays from scrimmage per forced fumble
2. Plays from scrimmage per fumble recovery
3. Pass attempts per interception
4. Pass attempts per sack
5. QB Rating Allowed
After calculating the team's preseason and regular season numbers for the stats above, I then ran a correlation coefficent.
As simple as I can put it, a correlation coefficient is a number that ranges from -1.0 to +1.0 and it helps determine the statistical relationship between two variables.
The closer the number is to -1.0, the stronger the NEGATIVE correlation is. For instance, if I had a restaurant and wanted to know the correlation between hot soup sold and temperature and came up with a correlation coefficient of -0.8, that would mean there's a very strong negative correlation or I could term it as "the higher the temperature, it's likely that there will be less hot soup sold."
On the flip side, if the number is closer to +1.0, the stronger the POSITIVE CORRELATION is. For instance, if I wanted to know the correlation between lemonade sold and temperature and came up with a coefficient of +0.8, that would mean there's a very strong positive correlation or I could term it as "the higher the temperature, the more likely I will sell lemonade."
Lastly, the closer the number is to Zero, that means there's no correlation. So if I'm trying to determine hamburgers sold in comparison to temperature and come up with a coefficient of +0.03, that means that temperature has really no effect on burger sales. It could be 100 degrees or 25 degrees out and I'm likely to see now difference in burger sales.
So that's what I'm looking for here and here's what I came up with for the past 2 seasons (I could only find preseason stats for the past 2 years):
PLAYS FROM SCRIMMAGE PER FORCED FUMBLE
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.........................................-0.1328
2006.........................................-0.0307
PLAYS FROM SCRIMMAGE PER FUMBLE RECOVERY
Year................................Correlation Coefficient
2007.........................................+0.09 27
2006.........................................-0.0335
PASS ATTEMPTS PER INTERCEPTION
Year................................Correlation Coefficient
2007........................................-0.01749
2006........................................+0.524 01
PASS ATTEMPTS PER SACK
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.......................................+0.0983 3
2006.......................................+0.1269 4
QB RATING ALLOWED
Year...............................Correlation Coefficient
2007.......................................+0.3561 59
2006......................................+0.42425 9
Unfortunately I don't have that big of a sample size, but the indication is that when it comes to the stats I analyzed, preseason play is really no indicator of how the team will do in these areas in the regular season. The strongest correlation out there was pass attempts per interception in 2006 (a coefficient of 0.52) and even that appears to be an abberation as in 2007 the coefficient was near zero. Out of all of the stats listed, the biggest correlation year to year appears to be QB rating allowed, and it's strongest correlation was only 0.42 which really isn't all that strong of a correlation.
For instance, last preseason the St. Louis Rams finished 1st in pass attempts per sack in the preseason, but were 22nd in that statistic come the regular season. And the Vikings finished 1st in pass attempts per interception in preseason in 2007, only to finish 28th in that statistic in the regular season.
So while I'd like to have seen better play from the defense and the team looks talented on the field, but not exactly sharp, statistics show that it's ridiculous to worry too much about it because it is just preseason.
posted by The Gryphon at 9:46 AM
<< Home