NFL Preview - Baltimore (9-5) At Dallas (9-5)
By Tony Moss, NFL Editor -- (Sports Network)
The Dallas Cowboys won't be able to waste much time on sentimentality Saturday night, when they host the Baltimore Ravens in what is likely to be the final game in Texas Stadium history.
The send-off for the famous building with the hole in the roof will have to take a back seat, as Dallas enters Week 16 in a fight for its playoff life.
The Cowboys, who resigned themselves to vying for a Wild Card after the more consistent New York Giants (11-3) clinched the NFC East two weeks ago, are caught in a glut of five teams fighting for one of the conference's two playoff slots reserved for non-division winners.
At 9-5, Dallas is out in front of a group that also includes Tampa Bay (9-5), Atlanta (9-5), Philadelphia (8-5-1), and Chicago (8-6), but a loss to the Ravens on Saturday night would remove control of their own postseason destiny from the Cowboys' hands.
As it is, there is already a strong chance that a win for America's Team on Saturday will do little more than set up a potentially monumental matchup at the Eagles in Week 17. Philadelphia is at fading Washington on Sunday, and would vault the Cowboys in the Wild Card standings if it wins out.
Dallas comes into the Baltimore game fresh off a gigantic 20-8 victory over the Giants last Sunday night, a result that helped ease the sting of a heartbreaking loss in Pittsburgh the week before and also ceased, at least temporarily, the ongoing drama concerning wide receiver Terrell Owens, tight end Jason Witten, and quarterback Tony Romo.
The trio had been the subject of several media reports in the week leading up to the Giants game suggesting that Owens was at odds with Romo and Witten for the quarterback's perceived preference for targeting his Pro Bowl tight end.
Like the Cowboys, the Baltimore Ravens know something about heartbreaking losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
John Harbaugh's club endured such a result last week, falling, 13-9, in a game that they led for most of the day prior to a 92-yard game-winning touchdown drive by Pittsburgh.
In the waning moments of that game, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisbeger completed a third-down pass to Santonio Holmes that was ruled down inside the 1-yard line. Despite video evidence to the contrary, referee Walt Coleman discerned that the ball had crossed the plane of the goal line with Holmes in control of the football, reversing the call and awarding Pittsburgh with the points needed to win both the game and the AFC North title.
Now 9-5, the Ravens must win on Saturday to maintain control of the final position in the AFC Wild Card race. The Colts (10-4) are ahead of Baltimore in the No. 5 slot as Week 16 begins, and two members of the current 9-5 AFC East group including the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots will eventually be thrown into the Wild Card mix as well.
The important contest will serve as a fitting regular season finale for Texas Stadium, which will be left vacant when the Cowboys move into a new billion- dollar facility in Arlington, TX, next season. The building opened its doors in 1971 and has played host to 22 postseason contests including five NFC Championship Games.
Saturday will mark the final game in the facility's history unless the Cowboys reach the NFC Championship and face the conference's No. 6 playoff seed in that would-be matchup.
SERIES HISTORY
The Ravens have won their only two meetings with the Cowboys all-time, defeating Dallas at M&T Bank Stadium in 2000 (27-0) and 2004 (30-10). A Baltimore-based NFL team will be traveling to Big D for the first time since 1978, when the Cowboys beat the Colts there, 38-0. The Colts were 1-3 in Dallas while based in Baltimore, with there only win there coming in 1960.
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips is 1-0 in his career against the Ravens, with the win coming for his Bills team in 1999. The Ravens' Harbaugh will be meeting both Phillips and the Cowboys for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
A week after being frustrated by the stout Steelers defense, quarterback Joe Flacco (2525 passing yards, 13 TD, 12 INT) and a Ravens attack that fell to 21st in NFL total offense (311.8 yards per game) after last Sunday's loss needs to achieve some positive momentum early. Flacco completed just 11-of-28 passes for 115 yards with two interceptions during a game in which the Ravens managed only 12 first downs, and only one Baltimore drive lasted longer than nine plays or 34 yards. Working the ball down the field to wideouts Derrick Mason (68 receptions, 4 TD) and Mark Clayton (33 receptions, 3 TD), along with tight end Todd Heap (30 receptions, 3 TD), should free things up for the NFL's sixth-ranked rushing offense (141.7 yards per game). Bruising back Le'Ron McClain (693 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 8 TD), who was on Tuesday named to his first career Pro Bowl, received most of the work last week, carrying 23 times for 87 yards. Willis McGahee (539 rushing yards, 5 TD, 19 receptions), who carried six times against the Steelers, should see some work on Saturday as well. The contest will be a significant one for the Baltimore pass- protection unit, which has allowed a modest 25 sacks on the year, including two to the Steelers last week.
Placing pressure on Flacco will be job number one for a Dallas unit that has posted a league-best 53 sacks, including an eye-opening eight of Eli Manning in last Sunday's win over the Giants. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (74 tackles, 19 sacks) continued to make his bid for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, chipping in with a three-sack effort, while veteran pass rusher Greg Ellis (31 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) managed a pair of sacks on the other side. On the back end, cornerback Terence Newman (29 tackles, 4 INT) comes off a two-INT performance versus the G-Men, and will combine with fellow CB Anthony Henry (46 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and safeties Ken Hamlin (66 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Keith Davis (32 tackles) to try to keep Baltimore's receivers in check. The Cowboys are tied for seventh in the league against the run (93.1 yards per game) as Week 16 begins, limiting the Brandon Jacobs-less Giants to 72 ground yards last Sunday. Pro Bowl-bound nose tackle Jay Ratliff (44 tackles, 7 sacks) and end Chris Canty (32 tackles, 3.5 sacks) help set the tone at the point of attack, with inside linebackers Bradie James (99 tackles, 6 sacks) and Zach Thomas (90 tackles, 1 sack) working behind them. James had a team-high-tying seven tackles and a sack last Sunday. The Cowboys enter the Baltimore game ranked seventh in NFL total defense (287 yards per game), eighth in passing defense (193.9 yards per game), and tied for seventh in rushing defense (93.1 yards per game).
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The Cowboys' offensive performance against the Giants last week could not accurately be called sensational, though it was efficient enough to get Dallas the victory against a quality defense. Romo (3013 passing yards, 24 TD, 11 INT) bounced back from an ill-fated final quarter against the Steelers to complete 20-of-30 passes for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers, with the scoring strikes going to third wideout Patrick Crayton (33 receptions, 4 TD) and fullback Deon Anderson. Witten (69 receptions, 3 TD) had a team-high five receptions for 44 yards following a much-publicized week off the field, and Owens (58 receptions, 9 TD) managed a modest three grabs for 38 yards and also had a key first-quarter drop. It was the running game that offered Dallas the biggest boost against New York, and somewhat unexpectedly. With Marion Barber (872 rushing yards, 49 receptions, 9 TD) limited due to a toe injury, rookie Tashard Choice (326 rushing yards, 1 TD, 13 receptions) carried the load and finished with nine carries for 91 yards and a touchdown in addition to a team-high 52 yards on four receptions in the aerial game. Barber played but was held to two yards on eight carries, and could continue to lose carries to Choice on Saturday. The Cowboys line will have to do a better job in protection this week after surrendering four sacks to the Giants, bringing the season total in that category to 25. Dallas is eighth in NFL total offense (349.1 yards per game) as Week 16 begins.
Statistically, the Ravens defense is as scary as any NFL unit this side of the Steelers. Baltimore heads to Dallas ranked second in total defense (257.5 yards per game) and passing defense (179.5 yards per game), and third in rushing defense (78 yards per game). It has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league (3), is No. 1 in opponents' completion percentage (52.0) and opponents' third-down conversion percentage (31.1) and fourth-down percentage (21.4), and is tied for the league lead in interceptions (22) and safeties (3) recorded. That said, the usually unassailable defense allowed the Steelers to march 92 yards on 12 plays in just 2:53 for the winning score last week, and lists safety Ed Reed (37 tackles, 5 INT, 1 sack) and cornerback Fabian Washington (27 tackles, 1 INT) questionable with thigh injuries heading into the pivotal contest. Placing pressure on Romo with Pro Bowl-bound outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (58 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 2 INT) will be key for Baltimore, with cornerbacks Samari Rolle (20 tackles, 3 INT) and Frank Walker (28 tackles, 1 INT) among those who might have to defend the talented Dallas receivers. When the Cowboys run it, a group including Pro Bowl-bound middle linebacker Ray Lewis (104 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT) and space-eating defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (50 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be on the scene.
FANTASY FOCUS
If you've reached the championship round of your fantasy playoffs, it is doubtful that you own a great number of Ravens. The team has not produced any consistent offensive players, though McClain, Mason, and kicker Matt Stover have all had their moments. The one consistent point-producer has been the team's defense, and though the Dallas attack is powerful, the Ravens still figure to force some turnovers on the night.
On the Dallas side, the strength of the Baltimore defense means starting players like Romo, Barber, Choice, Owens, or Witten is a risk-reward proposition. The smart money says to use Romo and Witten but bench the others given the Ravens' general strength against the run and Owens' sketchy play this year. The Cowboys defense is a strong play, especially against a rookie quarterback, and kicker Nick Folk is likely to get some chances when the Ravens stop Dallas in the red-zone and just beyond.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Ravens have had a fine season that has them in the thick of the Wild Card race, but a close inspection of their schedule notes that they've had some trouble against high-quality opponents. The Colts and Giants both outclassed Baltimore, and the Steelers (twice) and Titans both gutted out close victories, suggesting that Harbaugh's club hasn't quite learned how to finish against the best of the best. The Ravens aren't likely to rattle Romo as much as they have other quarterbacks this year, while on the other side Ware figures to get in Flacco's face and keep him from being especially productive. Baltimore will hang around in this one, but Romo will have the final word in a game that puts Dallas on the brink of the postseason.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 20, Ravens 17
The Dallas Cowboys won't be able to waste much time on sentimentality Saturday night, when they host the Baltimore Ravens in what is likely to be the final game in Texas Stadium history.
The send-off for the famous building with the hole in the roof will have to take a back seat, as Dallas enters Week 16 in a fight for its playoff life.
The Cowboys, who resigned themselves to vying for a Wild Card after the more consistent New York Giants (11-3) clinched the NFC East two weeks ago, are caught in a glut of five teams fighting for one of the conference's two playoff slots reserved for non-division winners.
At 9-5, Dallas is out in front of a group that also includes Tampa Bay (9-5), Atlanta (9-5), Philadelphia (8-5-1), and Chicago (8-6), but a loss to the Ravens on Saturday night would remove control of their own postseason destiny from the Cowboys' hands.
As it is, there is already a strong chance that a win for America's Team on Saturday will do little more than set up a potentially monumental matchup at the Eagles in Week 17. Philadelphia is at fading Washington on Sunday, and would vault the Cowboys in the Wild Card standings if it wins out.
Dallas comes into the Baltimore game fresh off a gigantic 20-8 victory over the Giants last Sunday night, a result that helped ease the sting of a heartbreaking loss in Pittsburgh the week before and also ceased, at least temporarily, the ongoing drama concerning wide receiver Terrell Owens, tight end Jason Witten, and quarterback Tony Romo.
The trio had been the subject of several media reports in the week leading up to the Giants game suggesting that Owens was at odds with Romo and Witten for the quarterback's perceived preference for targeting his Pro Bowl tight end.
Like the Cowboys, the Baltimore Ravens know something about heartbreaking losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
John Harbaugh's club endured such a result last week, falling, 13-9, in a game that they led for most of the day prior to a 92-yard game-winning touchdown drive by Pittsburgh.
In the waning moments of that game, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisbeger completed a third-down pass to Santonio Holmes that was ruled down inside the 1-yard line. Despite video evidence to the contrary, referee Walt Coleman discerned that the ball had crossed the plane of the goal line with Holmes in control of the football, reversing the call and awarding Pittsburgh with the points needed to win both the game and the AFC North title.
Now 9-5, the Ravens must win on Saturday to maintain control of the final position in the AFC Wild Card race. The Colts (10-4) are ahead of Baltimore in the No. 5 slot as Week 16 begins, and two members of the current 9-5 AFC East group including the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots will eventually be thrown into the Wild Card mix as well.
The important contest will serve as a fitting regular season finale for Texas Stadium, which will be left vacant when the Cowboys move into a new billion- dollar facility in Arlington, TX, next season. The building opened its doors in 1971 and has played host to 22 postseason contests including five NFC Championship Games.
Saturday will mark the final game in the facility's history unless the Cowboys reach the NFC Championship and face the conference's No. 6 playoff seed in that would-be matchup.
SERIES HISTORY
The Ravens have won their only two meetings with the Cowboys all-time, defeating Dallas at M&T Bank Stadium in 2000 (27-0) and 2004 (30-10). A Baltimore-based NFL team will be traveling to Big D for the first time since 1978, when the Cowboys beat the Colts there, 38-0. The Colts were 1-3 in Dallas while based in Baltimore, with there only win there coming in 1960.
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips is 1-0 in his career against the Ravens, with the win coming for his Bills team in 1999. The Ravens' Harbaugh will be meeting both Phillips and the Cowboys for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
A week after being frustrated by the stout Steelers defense, quarterback Joe Flacco (2525 passing yards, 13 TD, 12 INT) and a Ravens attack that fell to 21st in NFL total offense (311.8 yards per game) after last Sunday's loss needs to achieve some positive momentum early. Flacco completed just 11-of-28 passes for 115 yards with two interceptions during a game in which the Ravens managed only 12 first downs, and only one Baltimore drive lasted longer than nine plays or 34 yards. Working the ball down the field to wideouts Derrick Mason (68 receptions, 4 TD) and Mark Clayton (33 receptions, 3 TD), along with tight end Todd Heap (30 receptions, 3 TD), should free things up for the NFL's sixth-ranked rushing offense (141.7 yards per game). Bruising back Le'Ron McClain (693 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 8 TD), who was on Tuesday named to his first career Pro Bowl, received most of the work last week, carrying 23 times for 87 yards. Willis McGahee (539 rushing yards, 5 TD, 19 receptions), who carried six times against the Steelers, should see some work on Saturday as well. The contest will be a significant one for the Baltimore pass- protection unit, which has allowed a modest 25 sacks on the year, including two to the Steelers last week.
Placing pressure on Flacco will be job number one for a Dallas unit that has posted a league-best 53 sacks, including an eye-opening eight of Eli Manning in last Sunday's win over the Giants. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (74 tackles, 19 sacks) continued to make his bid for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, chipping in with a three-sack effort, while veteran pass rusher Greg Ellis (31 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) managed a pair of sacks on the other side. On the back end, cornerback Terence Newman (29 tackles, 4 INT) comes off a two-INT performance versus the G-Men, and will combine with fellow CB Anthony Henry (46 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and safeties Ken Hamlin (66 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Keith Davis (32 tackles) to try to keep Baltimore's receivers in check. The Cowboys are tied for seventh in the league against the run (93.1 yards per game) as Week 16 begins, limiting the Brandon Jacobs-less Giants to 72 ground yards last Sunday. Pro Bowl-bound nose tackle Jay Ratliff (44 tackles, 7 sacks) and end Chris Canty (32 tackles, 3.5 sacks) help set the tone at the point of attack, with inside linebackers Bradie James (99 tackles, 6 sacks) and Zach Thomas (90 tackles, 1 sack) working behind them. James had a team-high-tying seven tackles and a sack last Sunday. The Cowboys enter the Baltimore game ranked seventh in NFL total defense (287 yards per game), eighth in passing defense (193.9 yards per game), and tied for seventh in rushing defense (93.1 yards per game).
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The Cowboys' offensive performance against the Giants last week could not accurately be called sensational, though it was efficient enough to get Dallas the victory against a quality defense. Romo (3013 passing yards, 24 TD, 11 INT) bounced back from an ill-fated final quarter against the Steelers to complete 20-of-30 passes for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers, with the scoring strikes going to third wideout Patrick Crayton (33 receptions, 4 TD) and fullback Deon Anderson. Witten (69 receptions, 3 TD) had a team-high five receptions for 44 yards following a much-publicized week off the field, and Owens (58 receptions, 9 TD) managed a modest three grabs for 38 yards and also had a key first-quarter drop. It was the running game that offered Dallas the biggest boost against New York, and somewhat unexpectedly. With Marion Barber (872 rushing yards, 49 receptions, 9 TD) limited due to a toe injury, rookie Tashard Choice (326 rushing yards, 1 TD, 13 receptions) carried the load and finished with nine carries for 91 yards and a touchdown in addition to a team-high 52 yards on four receptions in the aerial game. Barber played but was held to two yards on eight carries, and could continue to lose carries to Choice on Saturday. The Cowboys line will have to do a better job in protection this week after surrendering four sacks to the Giants, bringing the season total in that category to 25. Dallas is eighth in NFL total offense (349.1 yards per game) as Week 16 begins.
Statistically, the Ravens defense is as scary as any NFL unit this side of the Steelers. Baltimore heads to Dallas ranked second in total defense (257.5 yards per game) and passing defense (179.5 yards per game), and third in rushing defense (78 yards per game). It has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league (3), is No. 1 in opponents' completion percentage (52.0) and opponents' third-down conversion percentage (31.1) and fourth-down percentage (21.4), and is tied for the league lead in interceptions (22) and safeties (3) recorded. That said, the usually unassailable defense allowed the Steelers to march 92 yards on 12 plays in just 2:53 for the winning score last week, and lists safety Ed Reed (37 tackles, 5 INT, 1 sack) and cornerback Fabian Washington (27 tackles, 1 INT) questionable with thigh injuries heading into the pivotal contest. Placing pressure on Romo with Pro Bowl-bound outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (58 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 2 INT) will be key for Baltimore, with cornerbacks Samari Rolle (20 tackles, 3 INT) and Frank Walker (28 tackles, 1 INT) among those who might have to defend the talented Dallas receivers. When the Cowboys run it, a group including Pro Bowl-bound middle linebacker Ray Lewis (104 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT) and space-eating defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (50 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be on the scene.
FANTASY FOCUS
If you've reached the championship round of your fantasy playoffs, it is doubtful that you own a great number of Ravens. The team has not produced any consistent offensive players, though McClain, Mason, and kicker Matt Stover have all had their moments. The one consistent point-producer has been the team's defense, and though the Dallas attack is powerful, the Ravens still figure to force some turnovers on the night.
On the Dallas side, the strength of the Baltimore defense means starting players like Romo, Barber, Choice, Owens, or Witten is a risk-reward proposition. The smart money says to use Romo and Witten but bench the others given the Ravens' general strength against the run and Owens' sketchy play this year. The Cowboys defense is a strong play, especially against a rookie quarterback, and kicker Nick Folk is likely to get some chances when the Ravens stop Dallas in the red-zone and just beyond.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Ravens have had a fine season that has them in the thick of the Wild Card race, but a close inspection of their schedule notes that they've had some trouble against high-quality opponents. The Colts and Giants both outclassed Baltimore, and the Steelers (twice) and Titans both gutted out close victories, suggesting that Harbaugh's club hasn't quite learned how to finish against the best of the best. The Ravens aren't likely to rattle Romo as much as they have other quarterbacks this year, while on the other side Ware figures to get in Flacco's face and keep him from being especially productive. Baltimore will hang around in this one, but Romo will have the final word in a game that puts Dallas on the brink of the postseason.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 20, Ravens 17
posted by The Gryphon at 5:59 PM
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