Sunday, January 11, 2009

Expect Dallas Cowboys to pack their new house

By BRIAN DAVIS / The Dallas Morning News
brdavis@dallasnews.com

IRVING – It's perceived that Jerry Jones must do something drastic to shake up his Cowboys and generate some excitement. After all, the team's moving into that $1.2 billion stadium in Arlington this year, right?

After missing the playoffs with an embarrassing December swoon, who's going to buy all those season tickets? Who's going to spend thousands for a suite? And in this economy? Forget it.

The reality is that almost 85 percent of the stadium's ticket inventory was sold in November. Training camp won't start until late July, giving the team at least half a year to sell even more. Many analysts also project an economic recovery in the second half of 2009.

Considering the Cowboys have sold out every home game since 1991, there's no reason to think all 80,000 seats won't be filled come September.

"It's the most popular sport in the country, and they only play 10 home games every year [including the preseason]," said Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College in Massachusetts who has written 14 books on the economics of sports.

"I suspect that even though you might have to do a little bit of belt tightening, Jerry Jones is going to end up just fine."

From a ticket-selling standpoint, the Cowboys aren't worried, nor should they be. NFL history is on their side. Even awful clubs got a ticket boost when they moved into a new facility.

Arizona didn't post a winning record from 1999 to 2005. When the Cardinals moved into University of Phoenix Stadium in 2006, the team shattered the all-time attendance record. A total of 508,829 fans flocked to see Arizona finish 5-11.

Lowly Detroit was 2-14 in the final year at the gargantuan Pontiac Silverdome in 2001. Starting in 2002, the Lions sold out 50 consecutive games at Ford Field before breaking that string this year as the team went 0-16.

Neither the Cardinals nor the Lions can match the Cowboys' cache. And according to the NFL, a record 18.1 million fans paid to see pro football in 2007.

So it stands to reason there will be 80,000 people who want to see America's Team in a sparkling new facility that will be considered one of the best sports venues in the nation.

Despite an embarrassing finish, Jones is confident Cowboys fans will be excited by next season.

"I think we are all extremely surprised, disappointed, and that [feeling] passes," Jones said on his season wrap-up show on KTCK-AM (1310). "It does pass. I've experienced it."

Zimbalist believes that some season-ticket holders will look at the current product and the current prices and stay away.

"What I'm saying is that when you have a major disappointment, there will be some fans out there who say it's not worth driving my family nuts to have these seats," Zimbalist said. "There will be fans who make the choice not to do that."

For average fans, it's a stiff price. Season ticket prices range from $89 to $340 per game, but fans also must pay a one-time seat option fee that ranges from $4,000 to $150,000. In November, the team said only 9,500 individual tickets remained. The team does not plan to announce an updated figure until the building is sold out.

Of the remaining suites, prices range from $150,000 to $350,000 annually and require 20-year contracts. Only 60 out of 300 remained in November.

Cowboys spokesman Brett Daniels said most fans are basing their purchasing decisions on the team's history and future, not what happened on a week-to-week basis.

"We're all disappointed and frustrated in the way the season ended," Daniels said. "I don't think there's any hiding that fact. It's a disappointment now. But people are looking ahead. The excitement for a season builds starting right now."

Trent Petrie, director of the Center for Sports Psychology at the University of North Texas, said it's unclear how the team's performance will affect ticket sales going forward. While he hasn't conducted specific research on fans, Petrie said once Cowboys training camp starts, "People will get a taste of it again."

"I think as the stadium reaches its conclusion and we get to a lull between seasons, there's going to be some excitement building with the new season and the new stadium," he said.