Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Five NFC teams that can hit draft jackpots

Iyer's SportingBlog
Vinnie Iyer has been with Sporting News since 1999

Key events that helped the Saints turn their fortunes around so quickly in Sean Payton's first year as head coach happened about this time last year. Look back at some of the Saints' fine haul in the 2006 draft: First-rounder Reggie Bush and seventh-rounder Marques Colston ended up combining for 158 receptions and 2,345 yards from scrimmage.

Without those two players in its offense, New Orleans wouldn't have been in the playoffs; with them, it got to the NFC championship game.

So it's OK for many teams to dream big going into the draft, because the potential to hit the jackpot is there, with a great chance to transform a disappointing 2006 into a most pleasing 2007. Here are five NFC teams whose drafts I'll be watching closely, because their picks on Saturday and Sunday will play a significant role in how I eventually pick them to finish in the '07 conference standings:

1. Packers. Their archrival Bears are in position for a Super Bowl hangover, and Green Bay quietly finished a very respectable 8-8 in coach Mike McCarthy's first season. With their nine picks, the Pack should focus on adding playmakers on offense (wide receiver, tight end, a situational speed back) and adding depth on defense (safety, cornerback, linebacker). I'm looking forward to GM Ted Thompson pulling all the right strings to help give Brett Favre another (last?) shot at the playoffs.

2. Falcons. It's a good thing Atlanta has 10 picks, because they need to stock up on offensive players to start the Bobby Petrino era. I see the Falcons in the same pre-draft position the Saints were a year ago -- with a new, offensive-minded coach, some good offensive talent already in place, a very shaky defense and playing in the wacky, unpredictable NFC South. The Falcons need to give Michael Vick quick draft help the way Drew Brees got it right when he got to New Orleans, and then add enough to the defense to help it hold up in Saints-like bend but don't break mode.

3. 49ers. Speaking of team comparisons, I call the Niners "Chargers Light". Think about it: There's the smart young QB, there's the explosive back who wears No. 21 and there's the ultra-athletic tight end who's the team's best receiver. Then there's defense, where both teams employ the 3-4. Of course, the Chargers have a lot more talent and experience with which to execute on both sides of the ball, but then again, the Niners have the luxury of playing in a considerably weaker conference and a very weak division. They've already invested in greatly improving their defense with free agents, so if they score good receiver and defensive line help among their 10 picks, they will be my NFC West favorites.

4. Buccaneers. What a roller coaster of a team. Two years ago, few thought they could win the NFC South, and then they drafted Cadillac Williams and edged out Carolina for first place. Last year, with some higher expectations, they got little help from the draft and got plenty of damage from injuries. They've got four Day 1 picks this year, and I'm looking for some immediate impact players. That means either Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas at No. 4, and then some defensive linemen who can be productive in their system later.

5. Cowboys. Of all the teams in this blog, this is the only one that made the playoffs in '06, but considering the wild way in which their wild-card appearance ended and the fact they must move on without Bill Parcells puts an even brighter draft spotlight than usual on America's Team. I'm looking for the Cowboys to add solid depth/role players to what is a pretty talented overall core. My short list for their 10 picks: A No. 3 wide receiver, a nickel back, a dime back and a strong situational pass rusher. If Jerry Jones pulls it off without Tuna, I'll put the 'Boys right up there with the Saints and the Eagles as NFC title favorites for '07.