Saturday, September 06, 2008

Front-runners: Keep an eye on Cowboys and Patriots for February

Mike O'Hara / The Detroit News

Chuck Noll once gave a lesson in history and present value when the Steelers were days away from beating the Rams to win their fourth Super Bowl in six years.

The Steelers were heavily favored in Super Bowl XIV, but Noll never felt secure, even with a star-laden roster. Nothing was automatic about winning back-to-back Super Bowls for the second time.

"Do you know what an instant antique is?" Noll asked a group of reporters at a news conference leading up to the game. "A Super Bowl ring is an instant antique."

Point taken.

There are no guarantees in an NFL season. From play to play, week to week, season to season, the landscape changes.

The Giants have the trophy, the title and the rings that memorialize their 17-14 upset of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

And with their season kicking off Thursday at home in winning fashion over the Redskins, the question is whether the Giants will contend in the tough NFC East, let alone repeat.

The loss of defensive end Osi Umenyiora (knee), the leader of their pass rush, has weakened the Giants' defense. But that doesn't mean the season is over.

"When adversity strikes, it is not the adversity," coach Tom Coughlin said. "It is how you react to it. I really believe that in a situation like this, you become more dependent on each other than ever before.

"So the team theme keeps pouring out of us at this time."

In the NFC North, the Vikings have gotten some mention because of their running game and defense. In the South, the Saints added help on offense and defense. And in the weak West, the Cardinals might break through and end the Seahawks' run of four straight titles.

But, even before Umenyiora's injury and with all the changes throughout the NFC, the Cowboys were favored to win the conference and head to the Super Bowl.

Patriots the kings again
The Patriots remain the power in the AFC East, and are clear favorites in the betting lines to win the Super Bowl.

The power could shift in the South, with Jacksonville ready to challenge Indianapolis, which has won 12 or more games five straight seasons. Cleveland missed the playoffs despite a 10-6 record but doesn't have enough defense to beat out Pittsburgh in the North.

In the AFC West, the Chargers killed some demons by winning two playoff games last season, but don't bet on them taking another step into the Super Bowl. They have the NFL's best player (running back LaDainian Tomlinson), but Shawne Merriman's knee injury hurts the defense, and tight end Antonio Gates has lingering problems from last year's toe injury.

The winner is ...
I like the Cowboys' chances to beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIII, but without a strong conviction about either team.

The Cowboys have talent, but something always gets in the way. The last two years, it was quarterback Tony Romo who came up short in playoff losses to the Seahawks and the Giants.

And the way the Giants' pass rush manhandled Tom Brady in the Super Bowl raises concerns.

"A lot of things need to be corrected," Brady told reporters. "We have high expectations from what we accomplished last year."